Rafael Loss
@rafaelloss.bsky.social
policy fellow @ecfr.eu berlin | defence, nukes and nato | prev cgsr llnl | he/him
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/publication/after-the-rupture-middle-powers-and-the-construction-of-new-order/
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/publication/after-the-rupture-middle-powers-and-the-construction-of-new-order/
Reposted by Rafael Loss
The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation.
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order – European Council on Foreign Relations
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although
ecfr.eu
February 12, 2026 at 10:59 PM
The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation.
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Nice tribute to Germany's military chief in the @wsj.com. We're lucky to have allies like Germany.
A German General Prepares His Country for War—and the Clock Is Ticking
Could Russia launch a war across Europe? The Germans aren’t waiting to find out.
www.wsj.com
February 13, 2026 at 1:57 PM
Nice tribute to Germany's military chief in the @wsj.com. We're lucky to have allies like Germany.
This episode of @markhleonard.bsky.social's World in 30 Minutes podcast features a live recording of a conversation with US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu
ECFR’s Director, @markhleonard.bsky.social, in conversation with U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, to discuss the ambitions and trade-offs shaping current U.S. national security policy, at the @munsecconf.bsky.social
February 13, 2026 at 4:37 PM
This episode of @markhleonard.bsky.social's World in 30 Minutes podcast features a live recording of a conversation with US undersecretary of war for policy, Elbridge Colby, which took place during the Munich Security Conference 2026.
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu
ecfr.eu/podcasts/epi... @ecfr.eu
"There is a school of thought that assumes an arms race will ensue any time the US does something with its arsenal [...] but changes to US forces are unlikely to engender a major departure from the current path of Russian force modernization."
warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
Running to Stand Still: Russian Nuclear Modernization after New START
John Maynard Keynes once wrote, “The difficulty lies, not in the new ideas, but in escaping from the old ones,” an apt depiction of the current discourse
warontherocks.com
February 13, 2026 at 11:36 AM
"There is a school of thought that assumes an arms race will ensue any time the US does something with its arsenal [...] but changes to US forces are unlikely to engender a major departure from the current path of Russian force modernization."
warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
warontherocks.com/2026/02/runn...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
ECFR’s Director, @markhleonard.bsky.social, in conversation with U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, to discuss the ambitions and trade-offs shaping current U.S. national security policy, at the @munsecconf.bsky.social
February 13, 2026 at 9:55 AM
ECFR’s Director, @markhleonard.bsky.social, in conversation with U.S. Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby, to discuss the ambitions and trade-offs shaping current U.S. national security policy, at the @munsecconf.bsky.social
The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation.
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order – European Council on Foreign Relations
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although
ecfr.eu
February 12, 2026 at 10:59 PM
The liberal, rules-based international order has served Europe well, but clinging to it risks marginalisation.
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
What to do? Study and engage with the strategies of middle powers 👇
After the rupture: Middle powers and the construction of new order ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrpower.bsky.social
Sachstand zur geplanten Stationierung US-amerikanischer weitreichender Waffensysteme in Deutschland
Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...
Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...
February 12, 2026 at 4:25 PM
Sachstand zur geplanten Stationierung US-amerikanischer weitreichender Waffensysteme in Deutschland
Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...
Regierungspressekonferenz vom 11. Februar 2026 www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/aktu...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development, write Anthony Dworkin, @rafaelloss.bsky.social, and @jpuglierin.bsky.social. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
👇 Full text: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9
👇 Full text: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9
BRICS and pieces: Middle powers and the construction of new order – European Council on Foreign Relations
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development. Although
bit.ly
February 12, 2026 at 12:42 PM
As American leadership wanes, middle powers are stitching a patchwork order through new approaches to conflict mediation, connectivity and development, write Anthony Dworkin, @rafaelloss.bsky.social, and @jpuglierin.bsky.social. @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
👇 Full text: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9
👇 Full text: https://bit.ly/4ay7SC9
Reposted by Rafael Loss
"Man [suche] für Litauen Freiwillige für 1.971 Dienstposten, bisher aber hätten sich [...] nur 'rund 10%' der nötigen Freiwilligen gemeldet."
Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.
Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.
Zur Abschreckung Russlands wird erstmals eine Bundeswehr-Kampfbrigade im Ausland stationiert. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen mangelt es aber bisher an Freiwilligen für den Dienst an der Nato-Ostflanke.
Bundeswehr: Freiwilligenmangel für Litauen-Brigade an der Nato-Ostflanke
Zur Abschreckung Russlands wird erstmals eine Bundeswehr-Kampfbrigade im Ausland stationiert. Nach SPIEGEL-Informationen mangelt es aber bisher an Freiwilligen für den Dienst an der Nato-Ostflanke.
www.spiegel.de
February 12, 2026 at 11:22 AM
"Man [suche] für Litauen Freiwillige für 1.971 Dienstposten, bisher aber hätten sich [...] nur 'rund 10%' der nötigen Freiwilligen gemeldet."
Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.
Die Fantasie, unattraktive Teile des Soldaten-Dienstes nicht als Teil des Jobs, sondern als gut vergütetes Zusatz-Engagement zu verkaufen, ist gescheitert.
NATO’s Military Committee confirms www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
February 10, 2026 at 1:53 PM
NATO’s Military Committee confirms www.nato.int/en/news-and-...
POLITICO reports that the US is looking to back out of several NATO commands: UK to lead NATO’s Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Va. and Italy to staff JFC Naples. Both are currently led by US officers. (US takes MARCOM instead.) subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026...
Called for this last Oct 👇
Called for this last Oct 👇
February 9, 2026 at 6:51 PM
POLITICO reports that the US is looking to back out of several NATO commands: UK to lead NATO’s Joint Force Command in Norfolk, Va. and Italy to staff JFC Naples. Both are currently led by US officers. (US takes MARCOM instead.) subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2026...
Called for this last Oct 👇
Called for this last Oct 👇
Reposted by Rafael Loss
At the Conference on Disarmament today, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security (T) Thomas Di Nanno hinted at the expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in 2020.
LIVE: US arms control official delivers disarmament statement in Geneva
YouTube video by Reuters
www.youtube.com
February 6, 2026 at 1:47 PM
At the Conference on Disarmament today, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security (T) Thomas Di Nanno hinted at the expansion of the U.S. nuclear arsenal and accused China of conducting a low-yield nuclear test in 2020.
“Russia … may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit … during portions of 2024. Therefore, this constitutes a serious compliance concern.” 2021-2025.state.gov/2024-report-...
You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.
You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.
SCOOP: The U.S. and Russia are closing in on a deal to continue to observe the expiring New START arms control treaty beyond its expiration today
Scoop: U.S. and Russia negotiate extension to New START nuclear pact
New START is the last major guardrail constraining the nuclear arsenals of the two countries that together hold some 85% of the world's warheads.
www.axios.com
February 5, 2026 at 11:06 PM
“Russia … may have exceeded the deployed warhead limit … during portions of 2024. Therefore, this constitutes a serious compliance concern.” 2021-2025.state.gov/2024-report-...
You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.
You can’t in good faith agree to continue to observe limits which you didn’t observe in the first place.
Good.
The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...
The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...
www.eucom.mil
February 5, 2026 at 1:56 PM
Good.
The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...
The U.S. and Russian Federation agreed to reestablish high level military-to-military dialogue www.eucom.mil/pressrelease...
Germany's Armoured Brigade 45 assumed command of NATO's Multinational Battlegroup Lithuania. The brigade's two other battalions were formally assigned last week; they will arrive in Lithuania by the end of 2027.
For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
February 5, 2026 at 1:04 PM
Germany's Armoured Brigade 45 assumed command of NATO's Multinational Battlegroup Lithuania. The brigade's two other battalions were formally assigned last week; they will arrive in Lithuania by the end of 2027.
For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
For context and outlook, see: ecfr.eu/article/blue... @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Freue mich sehr auf diesen Abend. Die Böll-Stiftung hat mich eingeladen, mein Buch vorzustellen. @annakatrein.bsky.social hat eingewilligt, mit mir dort darüber zu sprechen. Großes Danke an beide! Alle sind sehr herzlich eingeladen. 👇👇👇
🟢 Wir laden ein zur Buchvorstellung "Jana Puglierin: Wer verteidigt Europa? Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen" I 📅 Mi, 25.02.2026 I 🕕 18.30 – 20 Uhr I 📍 Schumannstraße 8, 10117 Berlin oder im Livestream I Anmeldung ⬇️ calendar.boell.de/de/event/jan...
Jana Puglierin: Wer verteidigt Europa? Die neuen Kriegsgefahren und was wir tun müssen, um uns zu schützen
Seit dem russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine hat sich die sicherheitspolitische Realität Europas grundlegend verändert. Russland versteht sich als revisionistische Macht, die Grenzen infrage stellt....
calendar.boell.de
February 4, 2026 at 1:52 PM
Freue mich sehr auf diesen Abend. Die Böll-Stiftung hat mich eingeladen, mein Buch vorzustellen. @annakatrein.bsky.social hat eingewilligt, mit mir dort darüber zu sprechen. Großes Danke an beide! Alle sind sehr herzlich eingeladen. 👇👇👇
Reposted by Rafael Loss
In 2022, I proposed a PESCO project on "military permanence" with associated funding to support front-line states in creating the necessary infrastructure for growing forward formations: ecfr.eu/article/stay...
... but I take EIB money, too :)
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
... but I take EIB money, too :)
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
January 31, 2026 at 12:34 PM
In 2022, I proposed a PESCO project on "military permanence" with associated funding to support front-line states in creating the necessary infrastructure for growing forward formations: ecfr.eu/article/stay...
... but I take EIB money, too :)
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
... but I take EIB money, too :)
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Only this week:
🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK
🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent
🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent”
What a time to be alive!
🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK
🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent
🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent”
What a time to be alive!
January 30, 2026 at 4:24 PM
Only this week:
🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK
🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent
🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent”
What a time to be alive!
🇸🇪Swedish PM confirms talks on nuclear deterrence with France, UK
🇩🇪German chancellor confirms early discussions about a European nuclear deterrent
🇳🇱Dutch coalition agreement pledges to “take a constructive stance on strengthening a European nuclear deterrent”
What a time to be alive!
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic ecfr.eu/article/nuuk...
The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.
The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.
January 30, 2026 at 11:39 AM
Nuuk-lear standoff: Why the US and Europe should cooperate on missile defence in the Arctic ecfr.eu/article/nuuk...
The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.
The standoff over Greenland strained alliance relations: but using NATO to improve cooperation and counter Russian nuclear coercion could be a silver lining to this episode, I argue.
It’s not a dream, Mark. It’s a fucking nightmare. And yet…
Europe must stop ‘dreaming’ about defence without US, Rutte warns ft.trib.al/8bMMtTf
Europe must stop ‘dreaming’ about defence without US, Rutte warns
Nato chief says continent cannot afford to replace American security umbrella
ft.trib.al
January 27, 2026 at 9:30 PM
It’s not a dream, Mark. It’s a fucking nightmare. And yet…
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Ab heute gibt es mein Buch im Handel. Es geht um Russland, China und die Frage, was es heisst, wenn die USA vom Verbündeten zum Bully werden.
Mein Buch zeigt, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen Europa steht, was zu tun ist, und welche Rolle Deutschland dabei spielt.
Mein Buch zeigt, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen Europa steht, was zu tun ist, und welche Rolle Deutschland dabei spielt.
January 27, 2026 at 8:07 AM
Ab heute gibt es mein Buch im Handel. Es geht um Russland, China und die Frage, was es heisst, wenn die USA vom Verbündeten zum Bully werden.
Mein Buch zeigt, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen Europa steht, was zu tun ist, und welche Rolle Deutschland dabei spielt.
Mein Buch zeigt, vor welchen sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen Europa steht, was zu tun ist, und welche Rolle Deutschland dabei spielt.
Mehr Zivilschutz wagen: Szenario zu möglichem Chemiewaffenangriff – mit düsteren Aussichten augengeradeaus.net/2026/01/mehr... @wiegold.de
Hier die im wahrsten Sinne bemerkenswerte Risikoanalyse der Bundesregierung: dserver.bundestag.de/btd/21/036/2...
Hier die im wahrsten Sinne bemerkenswerte Risikoanalyse der Bundesregierung: dserver.bundestag.de/btd/21/036/2...
Mehr Zivilschutz wagen: Szenario zu möglichem Chemiewaffenangriff – mit düsteren Aussichten – Augen geradeaus!
augengeradeaus.net
January 26, 2026 at 9:59 PM
Mehr Zivilschutz wagen: Szenario zu möglichem Chemiewaffenangriff – mit düsteren Aussichten augengeradeaus.net/2026/01/mehr... @wiegold.de
Hier die im wahrsten Sinne bemerkenswerte Risikoanalyse der Bundesregierung: dserver.bundestag.de/btd/21/036/2...
Hier die im wahrsten Sinne bemerkenswerte Risikoanalyse der Bundesregierung: dserver.bundestag.de/btd/21/036/2...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
"European defence will need to be organised around regional and functional coalitions, enabling prompt response to crisis and conflict as NATO’s political cohesion frays."
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe ecfr.eu/article/disi...
My quick-reaction policy alert on Trump's new National Defense Strategy.
My quick-reaction policy alert on Trump's new National Defense Strategy.
Disintegrated deterrence: What Trump’s National Defense Strategy means for Europe – European Council on Foreign Relations
Donald Trump has rolled out America’s stark new National Defense Strategy. Europeans need to be prepared to take control of their own defence future
ecfr.eu
January 26, 2026 at 5:14 PM
"European defence will need to be organised around regional and functional coalitions, enabling prompt response to crisis and conflict as NATO’s political cohesion frays."