Rafael Loss
@rafaelloss.bsky.social
policy fellow @ecfr.eu berlin | defence, nukes and nato | prev cgsr llnl | he/him
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/article/look-what-you-made-us-do-how-to-realise-a-european-led-nato/
latest 👉 https://ecfr.eu/article/look-what-you-made-us-do-how-to-realise-a-european-led-nato/
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Mein Gastbeitrag für die ZEIT ist online. Er ordnet Trumps Rhetorik rund um neue Nukleartests ein, spielt mögliche Folgen durch und mahnt, dass die Erosion der Norm gegen Nukleartests eine europäische Antwort erfordert.
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
New Start: Die gefährliche Rhetorik von Trumps Nukleartestdrohung
Im Februar endet mit New Start das letzte Rüstungsabkommen zwischen Russland und den USA. Doch Trump redet von Atomtests – und gefährdet damit zukünftige Verhandlungen.
www.zeit.de
November 25, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Mein Gastbeitrag für die ZEIT ist online. Er ordnet Trumps Rhetorik rund um neue Nukleartests ein, spielt mögliche Folgen durch und mahnt, dass die Erosion der Norm gegen Nukleartests eine europäische Antwort erfordert.
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Geschenk-Link:
www.zeit.de/politik/ausl...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
A big, beautiful European strategy for Trumponomics
Since the return of U.S. President Donald Trump to the White House in January, European policymakers have been struggling to sketch a sensible response to Trumponomics – an unpredictable…
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Eine große, schöne europäische Strategie für Trumponomics - @agathedemarais.bsky.social (@ecfrgeotech.bsky.social) und @jpuglierin.bsky.social diskutieren, wie diese aussehen könnte.
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
🗓️2.12., 17-18 Uhr
📍ECFR Berlin
Um Anmeldung wird gebeten! Zur Registrierung und allen Infos
👇
ecfr.eu/event/a-big-...
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China: ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrasia.bsky.social
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China
China’s military capabilities are growing and its actions in Europe are becoming more disruptive. The EU should support Taiwan with dual-use technologies and defence cooperation to send a clear signal...
ecfr.eu
November 25, 2025 at 10:52 AM
The Taiwan test: Why Europe should help deter China: ecfr.eu/publication/... @ecfrasia.bsky.social
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
What Europe should do about a bad Ukraine deal
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. Here is how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare.
ecfr.eu
November 23, 2025 at 8:53 PM
Donald Trump’s 28-point plan to end the fighting in Ukraine would be a dream outcome for the Kremlin. @jkobzova.bsky.social outlines how Europeans can ensure it does not become their continent’s nightmare
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
⬇️
ecfr.eu/article/what...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Telefonat von Putin und Trump: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen" www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
Putin-Trump-Telefonat: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen"
Das Telefonat mit Trump zeige, dass Putin weiterhin an seinen Forderungen festhalte, sagt Sicherheitsexperte Loss. Der US-Präsident mache sich dabei zum Erfüllungsgehilfen des Kremlchefs.
www.tagesschau.de
March 18, 2025 at 8:30 PM
Telefonat von Putin und Trump: "USA haben die russische Perspektive übernommen" www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Nuclear weapons, so hot right now (I crack myself up).
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
Sirens: A Bombshell production: More on nuclear testing with Heather Williams
Are you equal parts terrified and fascinated by recent mentions of restarting nuclear testing? The ladies of bombshell are here to help! Join us for the full-length interview with PONI Director Heathe...
sites.libsyn.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:49 PM
Nuclear weapons, so hot right now (I crack myself up).
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
@heatherwilly.bsky.social stayed to chat on weapons testing, the health of our nuclear deterrent, how she wished the public would engage on nuclear weapons, and House of Dynamite in our new mini
sites.libsyn.com/92063/more-o...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Mein Kurzkommentar (auf Deutsch) zur ersten deutschen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie ist nun online!
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Ambitionierter Aufbruch: Die erste deutsche Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie
Mit Milliardeninvestitionen und einer neuen Strategie richtet Deutschland seine Rolle im Zeitalter wachsender Bedrohungen neu aus. Dadurch...
www.swp-berlin.org
November 20, 2025 at 12:47 PM
Mein Kurzkommentar (auf Deutsch) zur ersten deutschen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie ist nun online!
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
@swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social
www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Zeitenwende: Space Edition 🚀
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Verantwortung im All: Erste Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie der Bundesregierung
Freiheit und Sicherheit werden auch im Weltraum verteidigt. Pistorius und Wadephul stellen Weltraumsicherheitsstrategie vor.
www.bmvg.de
November 19, 2025 at 2:01 PM
Zeitenwende: Space Edition 🚀
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Germany has just published its first space security strategy.
Let’s take a look at 3 major points: Resilience, Partners and Freedom of Action
(link also leads to english PDF)
Reposted by Rafael Loss
E-7 Wedgetail dead as NATO AWACS replacement. A huge shift, in particular as it is "Due to the US withdrawal" and "goal remains to have [...] aircraft operational by 2035" and "US withdrawal also demonstrates importance of investing as much as possible in European industry." Saab GlobalEye inbound?
Awacs-partners zoeken alternatief voor vervanging vloot
Nederland ziet samen met een aantal partnerlanden af van de verwerving van 6 Boeing E-7 Wedgetails. Ze waren in beeld als opvolger van de Boeings E-3A, die nu als Awacs-toestellen worden gebruikt. Dez...
www.defensie.nl
November 13, 2025 at 11:54 AM
E-7 Wedgetail dead as NATO AWACS replacement. A huge shift, in particular as it is "Due to the US withdrawal" and "goal remains to have [...] aircraft operational by 2035" and "US withdrawal also demonstrates importance of investing as much as possible in European industry." Saab GlobalEye inbound?
Vibing from Husum back to Berlin mit 71 Minuten Verspätung 🚅
November 8, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Vibing from Husum back to Berlin mit 71 Minuten Verspätung 🚅
Reposted by Rafael Loss
"To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead" ecfr.eu/article/look...
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
November 3, 2025 at 5:06 PM
"To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to spend more—they need to learn to lead" ecfr.eu/article/look...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Thoughtful piece. And a clever wheeze re using Hegseth's cull of 4-star positions to europeanise NATO's chain of command
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 31, 2025 at 8:25 AM
Thoughtful piece. And a clever wheeze re using Hegseth's cull of 4-star positions to europeanise NATO's chain of command
Reuters: "A military source said a [ground-launched] 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine."
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
www.reuters.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Reuters: "A military source said a [ground-launched] 9M729 fired by Russia on October 5 flew over 1,200 km to its impact in Ukraine."
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Exclusive: Russia uses missile in Ukraine that led Trump to quit nuclear treaty [in 2019], Kyiv says www.reuters.com/business/aer...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 31, 2025 at 7:32 AM
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO: ecfr.eu/article/look...
It should be JFC Naples rather than MARCOM. We’ll correct the error.
"They (The Europeans) should propose a Europeanisation of #NATO’s command structure, appointing European four-star officers to lead the NATO air, land and maritime commands, with US three-stars serving as their deputies to ensure continued integration."
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 9:28 PM
It should be JFC Naples rather than MARCOM. We’ll correct the error.
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Look what you made us do: How to realise a European-led NATO
America’s gradual retreat from European security under the current Trump administration is reshaping NATO’s centre of gravity. To keep the alliance credible and united, Europeans not only need to…
ecfr.eu
October 30, 2025 at 5:02 PM
The most effective deterrent to Russian aggression? According to Pete Hegseth: "a lethal, capable and European-led NATO."
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
My co-authors—Leoni Habedank and Katrine Westgaard—and I spell out what it takes to make NATO, its structures and its forces mostly European: ecfr.eu/article/look... @ecfr.eu
Reposted by Rafael Loss
yeeting this section at the Army procurement office
October 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
yeeting this section at the Army procurement office
"The Bundeswehr plans to buy 400 Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles for roughly €1.15 billion, along with three Lockheed Martin Typhon launchers valued at €220 million — a combination that would give Germany a 2,000-kilometer strike reach." www.politico.eu/article/germ...
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
October 27, 2025 at 8:31 AM
"The Bundeswehr plans to buy 400 Tomahawk Block Vb cruise missiles for roughly €1.15 billion, along with three Lockheed Martin Typhon launchers valued at €220 million — a combination that would give Germany a 2,000-kilometer strike reach." www.politico.eu/article/germ...
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
h/t @bjoernm.bsky.social
Gerald Ford's last deployment to the EUCOM area of responsibility in 2023 was interrupted by Hamas's 7 October attack and Ford's subsequent redeployment to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, with several of its escort ships continuing on into the Red Sea. www.navytimes.com/news/your-na...
October 24, 2025 at 7:45 PM
Gerald Ford's last deployment to the EUCOM area of responsibility in 2023 was interrupted by Hamas's 7 October attack and Ford's subsequent redeployment to the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, with several of its escort ships continuing on into the Red Sea. www.navytimes.com/news/your-na...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
US offers nuclear energy companies access to weapons-grade plutonium in bid to boost nucelar revival, ignoring concerns over proliferation risks on.ft.com/4qnLRx4 @financialtimes.com
US offers nuclear energy companies access to weapons-grade plutonium
[FREE TO READ] Expert warns commercial use of the radioactive material from cold war-era warheads carries safety risks
on.ft.com
October 21, 2025 at 9:50 PM
US offers nuclear energy companies access to weapons-grade plutonium in bid to boost nucelar revival, ignoring concerns over proliferation risks on.ft.com/4qnLRx4 @financialtimes.com
Reposted by Rafael Loss
“The British plan for mass casualty outcomes appears to be based on not taking casualties. This could be considered an optimistic planning assumption.”
I suspect of relevance for most European nations. Are we prepared for a long war?
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
I suspect of relevance for most European nations. Are we prepared for a long war?
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
The Long War: Fighting Beyond the First Battle
It is irresponsible to conceal the prospect of war from a population you will call on for second and third echelon reinforcements, for whom survival hinges on preparation.
www.rusi.org
October 21, 2025 at 10:25 PM
“The British plan for mass casualty outcomes appears to be based on not taking casualties. This could be considered an optimistic planning assumption.”
I suspect of relevance for most European nations. Are we prepared for a long war?
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
I suspect of relevance for most European nations. Are we prepared for a long war?
www.rusi.org/explore-our-...
ICYMI, two sharp pieces on Russia's military reconstitution
"How Russia Recovered" by @massdara.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...
"Down but Not Out?" by Diego Ruiz Palmer csds.vub.be/publication/...
"How Russia Recovered" by @massdara.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...
"Down but Not Out?" by Diego Ruiz Palmer csds.vub.be/publication/...
October 20, 2025 at 12:21 PM
ICYMI, two sharp pieces on Russia's military reconstitution
"How Russia Recovered" by @massdara.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...
"Down but Not Out?" by Diego Ruiz Palmer csds.vub.be/publication/...
"How Russia Recovered" by @massdara.bsky.social www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/how-r...
"Down but Not Out?" by Diego Ruiz Palmer csds.vub.be/publication/...
"The very long range (2000km+) Deep Precision Strike programme launched between UK and Germany is an example with opportunities for wider European participation under ELSA" – not in opposition to it. questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-ques...
October 20, 2025 at 10:18 AM
"The very long range (2000km+) Deep Precision Strike programme launched between UK and Germany is an example with opportunities for wider European participation under ELSA" – not in opposition to it. questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-ques...
Reposted by Rafael Loss
Go read my latest study “When Your Ally Turns Narcissistic: A Self-Help Manual for Europe Navigating Transatlantic Relations” 📚📖 if @bressansar.bsky.social is referencing it, it must be worth your time
Fits Trump’s narcissistic policy patterns (internationally and domestically) - and adequate response strategies (including unity and resolve), grounded in psychology and applied to the administration-level @sofielillistoffel.bsky.social : gppi.net/2025/10/12/w...
When Your Ally Turns Narcissistic: A Self-Help Manual for Europe Navigating Transatlantic Relations
This study applies insights from psychological research on narcissism to offer a new approach to understanding — and countering — the unprecedented way the US currently wields power vis-à-vis its alli...
gppi.net
October 17, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Go read my latest study “When Your Ally Turns Narcissistic: A Self-Help Manual for Europe Navigating Transatlantic Relations” 📚📖 if @bressansar.bsky.social is referencing it, it must be worth your time