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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Keir Giles @keirgiles.bsky.social · 7d

Surpriiiiise!

www.reuters.com/business/aer...

US Tomahawk missile shipments to Ukraine unlikely, sources say

The Trump Administration's desire to send long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine may not be viable because current inventories are committed to the U.S. Navy and other uses, a U.S. official and three sources said.

www.reuters.com

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 8d

Yes, there have been plenty of proposals for boosting Europe’s and Ukraine’s defences against air threats (provide Western systems to Ukraine, extend NATO coverage to western Ukraine, create an NFZ, etc.).

Yes, (part of) the job of think tankers is to advance policy innovations.

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 8d

Jetzt, im linearen TV 📺

www.phoenix.de/livestream.h...

@wilhelminepr.bsky.social @ijon.bsky.social

ECFR Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social · 8d

Drohnenalarm - Wie muss sich Europa verteidigen?
@rafaelloss.bsky.social ist heute Abend um 22:15 zu Gast in der Phoenix-Runde mit Anke Plättner, Wolfgang Richter, WIlhelmine Stenglin @table.media, und Johannes Rundfeldt
www.phoenix.de/sendungen/ge...

phoenix

www.phoenix.de

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 8d

I don’t see any leader in Europe who’s willing to contemplate such an approach — *gestures at the Coalition of the Willing*

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 8d

The terminology.

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ECFR @ecfr.eu · 9d

Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals, writes @rafaelloss.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4nl9m7P

Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions

Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals…

bit.ly

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Thomas Nilsen @thomasnilsen.bsky.social · 12d

My report from aboard the world's largest warship, USS Gerald R. Ford, this week at an undisclosed location in the North Sea.

Massive NATO show of force in Nordic region sends message to Russia

THE NORTH SEA: The Barents Observer was aboard the USS Gerald R. Ford on Wednesday as fighter jets took off for exercise bombing missions from the North Sea to the southern coast of Finland. The show ...

www.thebarentsobserver.com

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Security Studies Program MIT @ssp-mit.bsky.social · 9d

Thank you, Austin Long, for your recent Wednesday Seminar discussion. It was an enlightening peek behind the scenes of the Joint Staff.
📼ICYMI catch up with the conversation with the recorded stream: youtube.com/live/LQKGyAv...

Austin long addresses an audience from the front of the room.

Two men seated at a table in conversation while an audience watches.

An audience member raises their hand while another audience member asks a question.

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Thord Are Iversen @thelookout.bsky.social · 10d

Since it's October tomorrow:

A reminder that October is the month where Russia usually conducts it's annual strategic nuclear forces exercise Grom and NATO usually runs the annual nuclear exercise Steadfast Noon.

Both are normal activities, as annual implies.

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Jana Kobzova @jkobzova.bsky.social · 11d

As the polling stations in #Moldova close, here's a reminder from my @ecfr.eu colleagues @gvalodskaite.bsky.social and Leo Litra on what's at stake at this election:

ecfr.eu/article/love...

Love thy neighbour: Moldova’s election is a stress test for European resilience

Moldova’s parliamentary election will steer the country towards either the EU or Russia. Whatever the outcome, it is a chance for Europeans to understand Putin’s disinformation playbook and protect…

ecfr.eu

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 12d

Countering Russia’s strategy of coercion requires not only the right capabilities but also European leaders consistently demonstrating their tenacity to using them to impose risks on Russia—something European leaders have historically liked to leave to American presidents.

ecfr.eu/article/flau...

Screenshot of a paragraph in the article behind the link: “To take a page out of cold-war competition playbook: they could conduct—riffing off NATO’s large-scale naval exercises of the 1980s—a combined exercise including British and French submarines, a Dutch frigate, and Australian and Japanese destroyers in the Western Pacific firing a large volley of cruise missiles at mock targets located at the same distance but in the opposite direction of Russian’s Pacific Fleet headquarters in Vladivostok, for example. This would send a powerful and unusual signal of capability, resolve, and multinational cooperation.”

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

ECFR @ecfr.eu · 13d

With less (or no) American capability and capacity, the costs and trade-offs Europeans face are exacerbated, writes @rafaelloss.bsky.social @ecfreuropeansec.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/4nl9m7P

Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions

Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals…

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Kampf mit Kette @kampfmitkette.bsky.social · 13d

Am Interessantesten finde ich eigentlich wie still alle möglichen Seiten zu dem Thema sind. Wir reden hier über rein nationale Strategic Strike und Targeting Fähigkeiten sowie dazu gehörige Entscheidungsprozesse. Über die Bewaffnung von 5 geleasten Segelfliegern haben wir 10 Jahre diskutiert.

Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 13d

With some interesting nuggets:

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles

Fourteen months on, with a new U.S. administration in charge, officials in Berlin believe a Biden-era plan to send an Army unit with such arms is still on.

www.defensenews.com

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 13d

Looking for a late-Friday read featuring airspace incursions, political warfare, operational intelligence, cost-imposition,… and maritime strategy?

I got u fam.

Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions ecfr.eu/article/flau... @ecfr.eu

Flaunting mischief: Three aims of Russia’s airspace incursions

Russia’s recent incursions into NATO airspace are the biggest escalation with the alliance since the cold war. With it, Putin likely hopes to achieve three main goals…

ecfr.eu

5

Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 13d

With some interesting nuggets:

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles www.defensenews.com/global/europ...

Germany pursues multi-pronged quest for long-range missiles

Fourteen months on, with a new U.S. administration in charge, officials in Berlin believe a Biden-era plan to send an Army unit with such arms is still on.

www.defensenews.com

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 17d

“Europe is stuck in a Truman Show, and Trump’s America is in the director’s chair.”

Check out the brilliant fourth edition of @pawelzerka.bsky.social’s annual European Sentiment Compass for @ecfr.eu:

ecfr.eu/publication/...

Reality show: Why Europe must not cave in Trump’s culture war

In today’s transatlantic relationship, Europe’s every concession on policy plays into Trump’s culture war—feeding an image of European weakness…

ecfr.eu

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · 17d

Recall that the Biden admin on 17 January 2025 alleged that Russia may already "have exceeded the deployed warhead limit by a small number during portions of 2024. Therefore, this constitutes a serious compliance concern." 2021-2025.state.gov/2024-report-...

Lydia Wachs @lydiawachs.bsky.social · 18d

Putin just announced that Russia is ready to comply with the quant. limits of #NewSTART for one year after its expiry www.kommersant.ru/doc/8058884?...

Путин: РФ готова придерживаться ДСНВ в течение года после истечения его срока

Подробнее на сайте

www.kommersant.ru

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Shawna @mitsubishe.bsky.social · 23d

*deep breath*

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHH!

A llama or similar large brown fuzzy animal stands in a meadow in front of what looks like old ruins or a historic site. The llamas head is thrown back and its entire mouth open in what looks like a scream but might have been a yawn. I downloaded this picture a long time ago and no idea the context or where it came from.

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

ECFR @ecfr.eu · Sep 9

American hostility towards India should not drive New Delhi to shift away from the West entirely. Europe provides a promising pathway—one that can help India balance its risks, writes @jamescrabtree.bsky.social @ecfrasia.bsky.social @stiftungmercator.bsky.social
https://bit.ly/3V8eOPa

Pivot to Europe: India’s back-up plan in Trump’s world

Tensions with Trump will prompt India to seek rapprochement with Beijing, but the underlying competitive dynamics in China-India relations are unlikely to change. Against this backdrop…

ecfr.eu

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Le Rubicon @lerubicon.bsky.social · Aug 29

📖À l’est, du nouveau ? Le déploiement allemand en Lituanie pourrait servir de modèle en Europe
Retrouvez l’analyse de Rafael Loss (@rafaelloss.bsky.social), chargé de mission à l’ECFR, sur #LeRubicon.
lerubicon.org/a-lest-du-no...

À l’est, du nouveau ? Le déploiement allemand en Lituanie pourrait servir de modèle en Europe

L’Allemagne a déployé en Lituanie sa 45e brigade blindée, marquant son premier stationnement permanent de cette ampleur à l’étranger depuis 1949. Cette décision, initialement contestée, vise à renforc...

lerubicon.org

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Zia Weise @ziaweise.bsky.social · Aug 29

Update!

Estonia joins Finland and Poland in exploring defensive bog restoration, the environment and defense ministries just told me. Talks still at an early stage, as in the other two countries.

More here: www.politico.eu/article/esto...

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Reposted by Rafael Loss

Franz-Stefan Gady @hoanssolo.bsky.social · Aug 29

Österreichs kritische Infrastruktur und Verkehrsnetzwerke sind mit großer Sicherheit aufgrund seiner geographischen Lage als Drehscheibe auf der NATO-Nord-Süd-Ost-Achse bereits Ziel russischer Langstrecken-Präzisionswaffensysteme.

Michael Bauer @bundesheerbauer.bsky.social · Aug 29

APA: Russlands Ex-Präsident Dmitri Medwedew droht Österreich. Durch eine "militaristische Wende" und eine Aufgabe der Neutralität "steigt das Risiko erheblich, dass die Einheiten des #Bundesheer in die Langstrecken-Einsatzpläne der russischen Streitkräfte einbezogen werden könnten.

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ECFR Berlin @ecfrberlin.bsky.social · Aug 27

Das neue Wehrpflichtgesetz ist auf dem Weg - @rafaelloss.bsky.social diskutiert in SWR Kultur, wie das Deutschlands Sicherheitsgarantien beeinflusst.

🗓️heute, 17:05
👇

www.swr.de/swrkultur/le...

Deutsche Sicherheitsgarantien – Wie viel Wehrpflicht brauchen wir?

Claus Heinrich diskutiert mit Prof. Dr. Kathrin Groh, Juristin, Universität der Bundeswehr, München Rafael Loss, Verteidigungs- und Sicherheitsexperte, European Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin Ob...

www.swr.de

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · Aug 18

Heute vor fünf Monaten www.tagesschau.de/ausland/euro...

Screenshot des verlinkten Tagesschau.de-Artikels vom 18. März 2025

Das Telefonat mit Trump zeige, dass Putin weiterhin an seinen Forderungen festhalte, sagt Sicherheitsexperte Loss. Der US-Präsident mache sich dabei zum Erfüllungsgehilfen des Kremlchefs.

tagesschau.de: Was ist das wichtigste Ergebnis des heutigen Telefonats zwischen US-Präsident Donald Trump und dem russischen Präsidenten Wladimir Putin?

Rafael Loss: Die US-amerikanische Darstellung des Telefonats zwischen den Präsidenten macht deutlich, dass die USA unter Trump nun weitgehend die russische Perspektive auf den Krieg übernommen haben.

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Rafael Loss @rafaelloss.bsky.social · Aug 17

Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the complexities of how to organise and operate a European military presence in Ukraine, I described in March what lessons the cold-war era Live Oak staff holds: ecfr.eu/article/live... @ecfr.eu

Live Oak reloaded: How Europe can operationalise a military presence in Ukraine

Washington is winding down its European security contributions and backing away from Ukraine. Europeans could learn from history as they wrestle with deploying a military presence to deter future…

ecfr.eu

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