Robert Rust
@rrucs.bsky.social
China Analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program.
US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.
US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.
Pinned
Reposted by Robert Rust
Oh you know who else had a pen pal in Rome and thought Berchtesgaden was picturesque and affordable
February 11, 2026 at 5:09 PM
Oh you know who else had a pen pal in Rome and thought Berchtesgaden was picturesque and affordable
The plug and the product
February 13, 2026 at 4:17 AM
The plug and the product
@joshshapiropa.bsky.social any thoughts?
CBP didn’t give her or anyone any water; she asked 3 times accg to other reports. CBP killed a 7yr old.
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
“8 hours after the girl & her father were taken into custody, she began having seizures & her body temperature was measured at 105.7 degrees by emergency medical technicians. shorturl.at/d2OTJ
7-Year-Old Migrant Girl Dies Of Dehydration And Shock In U.S. Border Patrol Custody
The girl's death underscores the crisis precipitated by large groups of families seeking asylum where there are inadequate facilities to detain them.
shorturl.at
February 13, 2026 at 4:17 AM
@joshshapiropa.bsky.social any thoughts?
Does Josh Shapiro have any thoughts on this?
February 2, 2026 at 11:38 PM
Does Josh Shapiro have any thoughts on this?
This quotes a cybersecurity expert who claims stolen US iPhones are especially attractive in China "because of the country’s restrictions on technology and social media." Which is not true? Only real diff b/t US and China iPhones are a lack of esim in China? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
‘Sure enough, it’s gone’: Brooklyn venues targeted for mass phone thefts during concerts
Scores of live music fans in New York’s hip borough report having their phones stolen during live music shows
www.theguardian.com
February 2, 2026 at 11:31 PM
This quotes a cybersecurity expert who claims stolen US iPhones are especially attractive in China "because of the country’s restrictions on technology and social media." Which is not true? Only real diff b/t US and China iPhones are a lack of esim in China? www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
Walk with me, along the promenade of the motherland’s future brands
February 2, 2026 at 2:39 AM
Walk with me, along the promenade of the motherland’s future brands
Reposted by Robert Rust
Doesn't seem like this should be his job
February 1, 2026 at 11:19 PM
Doesn't seem like this should be his job
Reposted by Robert Rust
So you’re acquiescing to the idea citizens can be deported by asking they not be & calling it resistance?
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Thursday said House Democrats will demand a ban on the deportation of American citizens as a condition of winning their support for legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
Jeffries demands ban on deportation of US citizens as part of DHS reforms
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Thursday said House Democrats will demand a ban on the deportation of American citizens as a condition of winning their support for legislation fun…
www.kget.com
January 30, 2026 at 2:48 AM
So you’re acquiescing to the idea citizens can be deported by asking they not be & calling it resistance?
This looks awful lol
First trailer for Darren Aranofsky's new AI animated series 'On This Day... 1776'
• Tells short narrative stories about the Revolutionary War
• Uses Gen AI tools, including tech made by Google DeepMind
• Has SAG voice actors
• Tells short narrative stories about the Revolutionary War
• Uses Gen AI tools, including tech made by Google DeepMind
• Has SAG voice actors
January 29, 2026 at 8:25 PM
This looks awful lol
Re: PLA, the argument between "Xi Jinping is actually targeting corruption" and "Xi Jinping wants to solidify his control" has always confused me. The PLA is the armed wing of the CCP, and Xi is the leader of both, so surely eliminating corruption ~is~ about increasing control?
January 29, 2026 at 5:05 PM
Re: PLA, the argument between "Xi Jinping is actually targeting corruption" and "Xi Jinping wants to solidify his control" has always confused me. The PLA is the armed wing of the CCP, and Xi is the leader of both, so surely eliminating corruption ~is~ about increasing control?
As we get the latest round in the PLA purge extravaganza, I want to re-up a question I find myself asking every time the PLA is in the news: does anyone actually have a (Chinese) source that corroborates the “Xi wants to have the PLA ready to invade Taiwan by 2027” claim? I don’t remember seeing 1.
January 24, 2026 at 8:10 PM
As we get the latest round in the PLA purge extravaganza, I want to re-up a question I find myself asking every time the PLA is in the news: does anyone actually have a (Chinese) source that corroborates the “Xi wants to have the PLA ready to invade Taiwan by 2027” claim? I don’t remember seeing 1.
?
"A truly 'America First' policy would end the treaty. Extending the treaty would put not only Russian but also Chinese desires above American interests." Let's see what we get.
Eric S. Edelman and Franklin C. Miller: lnk.thebulwark.com/45c46MW
Eric S. Edelman and Franklin C. Miller: lnk.thebulwark.com/45c46MW
Time to End the Last U.S.–Russia Nuclear Treaty
The agreement is no longer in America’s interests.
lnk.thebulwark.com
January 15, 2026 at 6:20 PM
?
As if China takes foreign policy cues from any US government, let alone this one
I am horrified that the United States continues to set precedent for China to take unilateral action against Taiwan.
It isn’t 疑美論, it is 怕美論.
It isn’t 疑美論, it is 怕美論.
January 4, 2026 at 4:02 AM
As if China takes foreign policy cues from any US government, let alone this one
Pathetic
(Semafor) - The New York Times and Washington Post learned of a secret US raid on Venezuela soon before it was scheduled to begin Friday night — but held off publishing what they knew to avoid endangering US troops ..
@semafor.com
www.semafor.com/article/01/0...
@semafor.com
www.semafor.com/article/01/0...
January 4, 2026 at 3:57 AM
Pathetic
If you’re tempted to ascribe this latest illegal regime change operation to a breakdown of norms or whatever in DC, try to keep in mind that this is a long and storied tradition under supposedly “serious” US governments, both Democratic and Republican.
January 4, 2026 at 3:57 AM
If you’re tempted to ascribe this latest illegal regime change operation to a breakdown of norms or whatever in DC, try to keep in mind that this is a long and storied tradition under supposedly “serious” US governments, both Democratic and Republican.
Reposted by Robert Rust
To expand: re-evaluations of fissile material stockpile research and suspicion around China's fast breeders is driven by DoD warhead estimates, which come from an authoritative source with access to classified intel. They've had a big impact since 2021; maybe they're about to swing the other way.
Overall, based on China's recent arms control white paper reiterating that its arsenal is "lean and effective" and no info suggesting resumption of weapons-grade Pu production, it's likely that the current arsenal growth is indeed slowing because it's only intended to grow to the 800-900 range.
December 24, 2025 at 11:06 AM
To expand: re-evaluations of fissile material stockpile research and suspicion around China's fast breeders is driven by DoD warhead estimates, which come from an authoritative source with access to classified intel. They've had a big impact since 2021; maybe they're about to swing the other way.
2025 China Military Power Report is out(is this a new Christmas tradition?) Wondering if the claim that China's warhead production "slowed" in 2025 is a soft launch of acceptance that China's nuke growth isn't open-ended but capped by existing plutonium numbers. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
media.defense.gov
December 24, 2025 at 8:09 AM
2025 China Military Power Report is out(is this a new Christmas tradition?) Wondering if the claim that China's warhead production "slowed" in 2025 is a soft launch of acceptance that China's nuke growth isn't open-ended but capped by existing plutonium numbers. media.defense.gov/2025/Dec/23/...
Reposted by Robert Rust
Yes, hence Noem’s atrocity tourism to CECOT and Trump airing CECOT footage at rallies.
Performative sadism.
Performative sadism.
It was hard to convince Americans torture is wrong as a moral principle during Bush's term, and that was with the debate about whether torture makes us safer. I'm afraid for a portion of Trump's base, that calculation matters less. Idea of torturing undocumented immigrants may even bring pleasure.
December 23, 2025 at 2:50 AM
Yes, hence Noem’s atrocity tourism to CECOT and Trump airing CECOT footage at rallies.
Performative sadism.
Performative sadism.
Little-known fact about Marshal Nie Rongchen: he knew how to put it on
December 12, 2025 at 9:12 AM
Little-known fact about Marshal Nie Rongchen: he knew how to put it on
Reposted by Robert Rust
SKULL OF THOMAS AQUINAS: TAKE A LEFT NOW
PRIEST: No, the GPS says we have to keep going—
SKULL: I KNOW A SHORTCUT
PRIEST: Do you remember the last ti—
SKULL: FOR THOSE WITH FAITH, NO EVIDENCE IS NECESSARY; FOR THOSE WITHOUT IT, NO EVIDENCE WILL SUFFICE
PRIEST: No, the GPS says we have to keep going—
SKULL: I KNOW A SHORTCUT
PRIEST: Do you remember the last ti—
SKULL: FOR THOSE WITH FAITH, NO EVIDENCE IS NECESSARY; FOR THOSE WITHOUT IT, NO EVIDENCE WILL SUFFICE
'Skull of St. Thomas Aquinas being transported to Fossanova Abbey.'
Photograph by Daniel Ibanez
Photograph by Daniel Ibanez
December 10, 2025 at 5:10 PM
SKULL OF THOMAS AQUINAS: TAKE A LEFT NOW
PRIEST: No, the GPS says we have to keep going—
SKULL: I KNOW A SHORTCUT
PRIEST: Do you remember the last ti—
SKULL: FOR THOSE WITH FAITH, NO EVIDENCE IS NECESSARY; FOR THOSE WITHOUT IT, NO EVIDENCE WILL SUFFICE
PRIEST: No, the GPS says we have to keep going—
SKULL: I KNOW A SHORTCUT
PRIEST: Do you remember the last ti—
SKULL: FOR THOSE WITH FAITH, NO EVIDENCE IS NECESSARY; FOR THOSE WITHOUT IT, NO EVIDENCE WILL SUFFICE
My blog on China's new arms control white paper. Short on arsenal details, long on sticking to the same nuclear thinking. Interesting bits include focus on developing countries' right to emerging tech for development and risk reduction with Chinese characteristics. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
How Should We Read China’s First White Paper on Arms Control in 20 Years?
China's government says it remains open to arms control, characterizing the expansion of its nuclear arsenal as consistent with a defensive military posture.
blog.ucs.org
December 11, 2025 at 7:45 AM
My blog on China's new arms control white paper. Short on arsenal details, long on sticking to the same nuclear thinking. Interesting bits include focus on developing countries' right to emerging tech for development and risk reduction with Chinese characteristics. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
China MFA response to Trump approving H200 chips for sale to China. "We've noted the relevant report. China has always advocated that both sides can win through cooperation." www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_f...
美批准向中国出售英伟达H200人工智能芯片，外交部回应_大国外交_澎湃新闻-The Paper
12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 彭博社记者提问，美国总统特朗普称将批准向中国出售英伟达H200人工智能芯片。请问中方是否会允许购买这些H200芯
www.thepaper.cn
December 9, 2025 at 10:13 AM
China MFA response to Trump approving H200 chips for sale to China. "We've noted the relevant report. China has always advocated that both sides can win through cooperation." www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_f...