Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here.
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/
November 28, 2025 at 9:17 PM
By all indications, the event in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy was a failed Sarmat test (links to the full post below). So much for the promise to deploy the first Sarmat in 2025. I wouldn't overdramatize this - stuff happens. And it's not like Russia needs Sarmat. 1/
Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?
November 28, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Full video of the launch t.me/militaryruss.... Colleagues are positive it's SS-18 or Sarmat (they are quite similar). My guess is that Sarmat is more likely. A launch from Yasnyy logical after last year failure in Plesetsk. As for SS-18, it hasn't been tested for a while (2014?) so why do it now?
For comparison, here is a failed Proton launch in 2013. It's a bigger rocket, but it's UDMH/NOx too www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRV...
November 28, 2025 at 4:35 PM
For comparison, here is a failed Proton launch in 2013. It's a bigger rocket, but it's UDMH/NOx too www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycRV...
Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.
November 28, 2025 at 3:43 PM
Something happened in Yasnyy/Dombarovskiy. There is also a video and some NOTAMs t.me/militaryruss.... Looks like a failed ICBM launch. The color of this cloud doesn't look good. Not clear if it's Sarmat. There are other options: SS-18 or SS-19. Wait for more information.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
Excellent stuff here from Tatiana Stanovaya. x.com/Stanovaya/st...
November 26, 2025 at 8:51 PM
Excellent stuff here from Tatiana Stanovaya. x.com/Stanovaya/st...
Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
November 27, 2025 at 11:16 AM
Apparently, it's the first document of this kind in quite a while (since 2005?). Here is the link www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/w...
Three Rodnik communication satellites launched from Plesetsk by Angara 1.2 launcher. Will be designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599. This is second Rodnik launch in 2025 (previous in March). Links in the next post. 1/
November 26, 2025 at 7:14 AM
Three Rodnik communication satellites launched from Plesetsk by Angara 1.2 launcher. Will be designated Cosmos-2597, -2598, and -2599. This is second Rodnik launch in 2025 (previous in March). Links in the next post. 1/
This post by @wellerstein.bsky.social doomsdaymachines.net/p/nuclear-we... reminded me of an interesting observation by a colleague based on her interviews about attitudes toward nuclear weapons: Older generation experts are quite emotional about nuclear weapons. The younger folks, not so much.
"Nuclear weapons repel all thought, perhaps because they can end all thought"
Martin Amis on the difficulties of writing about nuclear war
doomsdaymachines.net
November 24, 2025 at 12:57 PM
This post by @wellerstein.bsky.social doomsdaymachines.net/p/nuclear-we... reminded me of an interesting observation by a colleague based on her interviews about attitudes toward nuclear weapons: Older generation experts are quite emotional about nuclear weapons. The younger folks, not so much.
By the way, my old take on "strategic stability" thebulletin.org/2012/10/the-...
November 24, 2025 at 6:24 AM
By the way, my old take on "strategic stability" thebulletin.org/2012/10/the-...
Looks like an interesting book - “Strange Stability: How Cold War Scientists Set Out to Control the Arms Race and Ended Up Serving the Military-Industrial Complex.” Author's interview to Harvard Gazette share.google/saasRud8lxHm...
November 23, 2025 at 9:56 PM
Looks like an interesting book - “Strange Stability: How Cold War Scientists Set Out to Control the Arms Race and Ended Up Serving the Military-Industrial Complex.” Author's interview to Harvard Gazette share.google/saasRud8lxHm...
Niels Bohr writing to Carlsberg Foundation: "I respectfully request a travel grant of 2500 Kr for a one-year study stay at foreign universities." That's it. That's the entire proposal. He received approval the next day...
November 21, 2025 at 8:40 AM
Niels Bohr writing to Carlsberg Foundation: "I respectfully request a travel grant of 2500 Kr for a one-year study stay at foreign universities." That's it. That's the entire proposal. He received approval the next day...
I'm not an economist, so don't shoot me. One idea shows up in many places in @johncassidysays.bsky.social Capitalism & its Critics: Capitalism is truly effective in amassing wealth, which must be spent (it creates problems otherwise). But the system cannot spend it on citizens' welfare... 1/
November 16, 2025 at 8:40 AM
I'm not an economist, so don't shoot me. One idea shows up in many places in @johncassidysays.bsky.social Capitalism & its Critics: Capitalism is truly effective in amassing wealth, which must be spent (it creates problems otherwise). But the system cannot spend it on citizens' welfare... 1/
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
November 12, 2025 at 7:01 PM
There seems to be a new date for Sarmat deployment: "experimental combat duty" in 2025 and "combat duty" in 2026. The former seems plausible: Rocket Forces can put it into one of the Uzhur silos (like the one below). The latter is unlikely w/o tests. Links to posts in reply 1/
By the way, Lavrov's "we are ready to discuss US suspicions regarding nuclear experiments" appears to be the first of this kind. Back in 2020, when the accusations was first made, the official response was "we do not intend to discuss compliance [with the US]"
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
November 12, 2025 at 1:33 PM
By the way, Lavrov's "we are ready to discuss US suspicions regarding nuclear experiments" appears to be the first of this kind. Back in 2020, when the accusations was first made, the official response was "we do not intend to discuss compliance [with the US]"
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
November 11, 2025 at 6:53 PM
Lavrov at a press conference today: "We are ready to discuss..." mid.ru/ru/foreign_p... Well, that would be a useful discussion. It's funny that on this issue it's Russia that is the adult in the room.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I'll be doing this tomorrow!
Tomorrow at 11:30 AM CST / 12:30 PM EST, join the Bulletin for an expert discussion unpacking "A House of Dynamite"—what was real, what was exaggerated, and what would happen next.
Register for free below. ⬇️
Register for free below. ⬇️
Experts React: Netflix's A House of Dynamite
On November 6, join the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists for an expert discussion on Netflix's A House of Dynamite movie, including US capacity to defend against a direct nuclear strike, arms…
pages.thebulletin.org
November 5, 2025 at 10:22 PM
I'll be doing this tomorrow!
I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...
Exclusive: SpaceX is set to receive $2 billion to develop satellites that can track missiles and aircraft under President Trump’s Golden Dome project.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal
The funding would support the development of satellites for President Trump’s Golden Dome project.
on.wsj.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:42 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if part of their pitch was, We can intercept that Burevestnik thing...
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
On Oct. 30, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s recent test of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik long-range cruise missile was “non-nuclear,” as it involved a test of a nuclear delivery s...
theins.press
October 31, 2025 at 9:17 AM
After U.S. moves to resume nuclear testing, Kremlin spokesman Peskov tells Trump Russia’s Burevestnik test was non-nuclear
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
Experts Pavel Podvig (@russianforces.org) and Henry Sokolski of the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center weigh in on the latest developments.
And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2
www.reuters.com
October 31, 2025 at 11:13 AM
And here is 9M729. Note that "they began [to use it] on August 21." Russia formally announced the end of its moratorium on August 4. So, it appears that the moratorium on deployment was a thing. www.reuters.com/business/aer... 1/2
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
How Russian and American signaling turned nuclear again It’s October 30, 2025. Here are three stories worth your attention. — Meduza
Donald Trump ordered the U.S. military to resume testing nuclear weapons for the first time in 33 years. The announcement, made during the president’s tour of Asia and following Moscow’s recent tests ...
meduza.io
October 30, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I wrote briefs on Putin's media gambit in Pokrovsk and Germany's deliberations on Rosneft Deutschland. Plus Trump's nuke testing order and Russia's Poseidon & Burevestnik tests. Always happy to get the chance to share insights from @russianforces.org.
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
meduza.io/en/feature/2...
It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.
October 30, 2025 at 10:52 AM
It's a sad sign of these sad times that many people assumed almost immediately that it's about nuclear tests. It's as if we want more bad nuclear news.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
October 30, 2025 at 6:22 AM
1/n - Trump says something about nuclear weapons tests...It’s hard to know what he means. As usual, he’s unclear, all over the map, and wrong.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
1. The United States has more Nuclear Weapons than any other country.
Wrong. Russia has more nuclear weapons than the United States.
it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.
October 29, 2025 at 9:52 PM
it's striking how similar Putin is to Khrushchev when it comes to nuclear weapons and "unique" weapon systems. Totally the same vibe.
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
October 28, 2025 at 10:41 PM
Russia ends the Plutonium Management and Disposition Agreement, but the commitment not to use PMDA plutonium for military purposes appears to remain in place. Links in the next tweet. Image: A mock up of a container used to store plutonium at Mayak 1/2
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.
October 27, 2025 at 10:04 PM
I tried to take a look at the history of large strategic force exercises in Russia to see how the goals changed over the years. I don't think there is a clear pattern, but at least I have all these in one place. russianforces.org/blog/2025/10... Image is from the 2017 one.