Pavel Podvig
@russianforces.org
Russian nuclear forces, nuclear arms control, disarmament, verification. Strictly personal views here.
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
All coordinates are at http://russianforces.org/podvig
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
NUKEMAP is apparently making guest appearances on the London metro, to the surprise of many (including me — but I explicitly make it clear people can use its imagery for whatever without asking me!)
Sympa la version londonienne des p'tits poèmes du métro
January 24, 2026 at 5:44 PM
NUKEMAP is apparently making guest appearances on the London metro, to the surprise of many (including me — but I explicitly make it clear people can use its imagery for whatever without asking me!)
Back to Greenland and early-warning radars. As it turned out, a few things have changed. All radars got an upgrade to AN/FPS-132 (UEWR). Here is an updated Goole Earth file russianforces.org/US-Early-War.... The image shows Pituffik/Thule. Note that ranges are notional
January 21, 2026 at 3:04 PM
Back to Greenland and early-warning radars. As it turned out, a few things have changed. All radars got an upgrade to AN/FPS-132 (UEWR). Here is an updated Goole Earth file russianforces.org/US-Early-War.... The image shows Pituffik/Thule. Note that ranges are notional
All eyes on Greenland... Yes, the US has an early-warning radar there. And in many other places too. Here is a Google Earth file with US radar fans russianforces.org/US-Early-War... It's from 2018, but I don't think much has changed. Maybe the name - it's still Thule in the file.
January 19, 2026 at 4:59 PM
All eyes on Greenland... Yes, the US has an early-warning radar there. And in many other places too. Here is a Google Earth file with US radar fans russianforces.org/US-Early-War... It's from 2018, but I don't think much has changed. Maybe the name - it's still Thule in the file.
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
65 years ago today, President Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered his Farewell Address, warning—inter alia—“against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”
January 17, 2026 at 1:35 PM
65 years ago today, President Dwight D. Eisenhower delivered his Farewell Address, warning—inter alia—“against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex. The potential for the disastrous rise of misplaced power exists and will persist.”
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
"Wellerstein presents his story in clear, direct prose, ... 'The Most Awful Responsibility' is a well-written opus unpacking Truman’s—and America’s—complicated relationship with nuclear weapons." www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
‘The Most Awful Responsibility’ Review: Truman and the Nuclear Option
Harry Truman knew little about the plans to use atomic weapons when he took office. By that time there was little he could do but decide where to drop the first bomb.
www.wsj.com
January 16, 2026 at 6:54 PM
"Wellerstein presents his story in clear, direct prose, ... 'The Most Awful Responsibility' is a well-written opus unpacking Truman’s—and America’s—complicated relationship with nuclear weapons." www.wsj.com/arts-culture...
That's a good milestone: "January 14, 2026 marks a milestone in world history. The world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test—the longest period since the Trinity test without a nuclear explosion" blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...
The Nuclear Testing Moratorium Passes a Milestone
The world has now gone the longest period of time since 1945 without an explosive nuclear test. Breaking this streak would be not only unnecessary but also unwise.
blog.ucs.org
January 16, 2026 at 2:37 PM
That's a good milestone: "January 14, 2026 marks a milestone in world history. The world has gone eight years, four months, and 11 days without a nuclear test—the longest period since the Trinity test without a nuclear explosion" blog.ucs.org/dylan-spauld...
Those opposed to extending New START limits feel that it's their moment. If the limits are extended now, even for one year, it would be much more difficult to upload and do other things a year later. 1/
January 15, 2026 at 9:47 PM
Those opposed to extending New START limits feel that it's their moment. If the limits are extended now, even for one year, it would be much more difficult to upload and do other things a year later. 1/
Forty years ago, on 15 January 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev announced a plan to eliminate all nuclear weapons by 2000. Here is the original poster and the English version. More details on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... and Subtack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
January 15, 2026 at 6:31 PM
Forty years ago, on 15 January 1986, Mikhail Gorbachev announced a plan to eliminate all nuclear weapons by 2000. Here is the original poster and the English version. More details on the website russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... and Subtack open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
I tried to put together an update of the status of the Russian strategic forces. My estimate is 575 launchers/1530 warheads (can "upload" to about 2100). It appears that R-36M2/SS-18 has been withdrawn. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
January 14, 2026 at 12:51 AM
I tried to put together an update of the status of the Russian strategic forces. My estimate is 575 launchers/1530 warheads (can "upload" to about 2100). It appears that R-36M2/SS-18 has been withdrawn. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/01... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
First Yars missiles deployed at Tatishchevo. Not clear if they are replacing Topol-M deployed there since 1997. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2025/12.... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
January 13, 2026 at 2:40 PM
First Yars missiles deployed at Tatishchevo. Not clear if they are replacing Topol-M deployed there since 1997. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2025/12.... Substack: open.substack.com/pub/russianf...
A nice video by DTRA on inspections. They are optimists and still maintain the program to train linguists and inspectors. Don't tell me that verification is hard or even impossible. There is a lot of expertise there. youtu.be/FNtV2-0QFzg?... (Image: R-39 removed for inspection?)
January 12, 2026 at 9:27 PM
A nice video by DTRA on inspections. They are optimists and still maintain the program to train linguists and inspectors. Don't tell me that verification is hard or even impossible. There is a lot of expertise there. youtu.be/FNtV2-0QFzg?... (Image: R-39 removed for inspection?)
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I am thrilled the newest "Russia's Nuclear Signaling" Chronology is published! Really glad @smetanamichal.bsky.social came onboard 15 months ago to continue this important work. A big thank you to all @swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND & @prcp.cuni.cz for making this possible! 1/7
www.swp-berlin.org
December 15, 2025 at 10:38 AM
I am thrilled the newest "Russia's Nuclear Signaling" Chronology is published! Really glad @smetanamichal.bsky.social came onboard 15 months ago to continue this important work. A big thank you to all @swp-berlin.org @swp-intsecurity.bsky.social #STAND & @prcp.cuni.cz for making this possible! 1/7
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
My annual report, Space Activities in 2025, is now available at planet4589.org/space/papers...
planet4589.org
January 1, 2026 at 11:59 PM
My annual report, Space Activities in 2025, is now available at planet4589.org/space/papers...
Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/
January 1, 2026 at 8:33 PM
Well, Russian early-warning satellites may not be dead yet. Thanks to @planet4589.bsky.social and @coastal8049.bsky.social for pointing out that it may be too early to write these satellites off. I still think the constellation is not quite well, but we'll see in a few months. Links below 1/
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
This is a nice addition to the "bad Cold War ideas" file — nukes that would detonate themselves at full yield "in the event the carrier and/or crew fell prey to the enemy defense." Never adopted as far as I know... from a Sandia study of nuclear safety issues, 1959.
December 30, 2025 at 12:58 PM
This is a nice addition to the "bad Cold War ideas" file — nukes that would detonate themselves at full yield "in the event the carrier and/or crew fell prey to the enemy defense." Never adopted as far as I know... from a Sandia study of nuclear safety issues, 1959.
The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2
December 28, 2025 at 10:18 AM
The space segment of the Russian early-warning system is not in good shape. Only one satellite appears to be operational. The image shows mean motion of Cosmos-2563, launched in November 2022. Links to posts below 1/2
It's now clear that the Yars test launch in early December was postponed. Russia made another attempt on Dec 25-26, unclear if successful (probably not). russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... (The early December attempt is here russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...)
russianforces.org
December 28, 2025 at 8:20 AM
It's now clear that the Yars test launch in early December was postponed. Russia made another attempt on Dec 25-26, unclear if successful (probably not). russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... (The early December attempt is here russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...)
Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2
December 27, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Oreshnik in Belarus? Something is definitely happening but there are reasons to be skeptical. I tried to put various bits together russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... Krichev-6 on the map below is the site identified by Jeffrey Lewis' team (seems rather close to the Russian border) 1/2
Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...
December 26, 2025 at 9:07 AM
Missile defense was, of course, a big topic as well. Here is Putin in 2008 (I'd disagree with this logic, but it's a standard argument). What's interesting, the "barbaric" stuff was indeed under development. There is a photo of Status-6/Poseidon from 2009 russianforces.org/blog/2016/04...
Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)
December 26, 2025 at 8:21 AM
Here is an interesting exchange between Bush and Putin in 2005. Uranium of Pakistani origin in Iran? And who are "they" who found it (if Iran didn't tell the IAEA)? nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/defaul... (I must say I don't know Iran all that well, so maybe this is not something new at all)
Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...
December 18, 2025 at 8:02 PM
Deployment of Yars missiles in Kozelsk completed russianforces.org/blog/2025/12... The decision to keep silos for Yars was made in 2008, first two missiles deployed in 2014. The total number of Yars missiles in Kozelsk silos is now 30. Post on Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p/deployment...
Reposted by Pavel Podvig
I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...
Alex Wellerstein joins the Bulletin
The Bulletin is proud to welcome Alex Wellerstein as a new Senior Fellow. In this role, he will work with the Bulletin’s editorial team on historical
thebulletin.org
December 18, 2025 at 3:02 PM
I'm excited about this — expect lots of interesting things in the new year! thebulletin.org/2025/12/alex...
Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2
December 16, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Missile defense works perfectly ... against missiles that don't exist. Documents from the Katayev archive show how the Soviet Union concluded that it can come up with missile designs to defeat SDI. I'm sure it will be the same with the Golden Dome. Links to full posts below 1/2
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
December 16, 2025 at 10:46 AM
In early December Russia released NOTAMs for the 3-7 December window covering Plesetsk and Kura. By all indications it was a Yars launch. The test was either cancelled or postponed - NOTAMs were cancelled on 2 December (h/t
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
@thelookout.bsky.social) russianforces.org/blog/2025/12...
Oh no. This is a very sad news. Bill was great.
I am absolutely gutted to hear that Dr. William (Bill) Burr of the
@nsarchive.bsky.social passed away yesterday. Bill was so kind, so generous, and so important to the field of nuclear history. And he was just a great guy on top of everything else. It is a huge loss.
@nsarchive.bsky.social passed away yesterday. Bill was so kind, so generous, and so important to the field of nuclear history. And he was just a great guy on top of everything else. It is a huge loss.
December 12, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Oh no. This is a very sad news. Bill was great.