Sam Huckstep
@samhuckstep.bsky.social
Working on climate, migration, governance & green transition at CGDev. Any views mine.
Pinned
Sam Huckstep
@samhuckstep.bsky.social
· Nov 27
🚨New paper! 🚨(well, to Bluesky)
Making Migration Work for Adaptation: Classifying Remittances as Climate Finance
An exciting paper that we hope might make a difference (esp. after NCQG).
Huge thanks to co-author @jonathanbeynon.bsky.social & to all who reviewed/shared comments.
Thread below! 1/
Making Migration Work for Adaptation: Classifying Remittances as Climate Finance
An exciting paper that we hope might make a difference (esp. after NCQG).
Huge thanks to co-author @jonathanbeynon.bsky.social & to all who reviewed/shared comments.
Thread below! 1/
The NYT has an excellent deep-dive today into the political economy of Kenya's labour export model, focused on the corridor to Saudi Arabia.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
Kenyan Workers Get Abused Abroad. The President’s Family and Allies Profit.
www.nytimes.com
November 14, 2025 at 12:47 PM
The NYT has an excellent deep-dive today into the political economy of Kenya's labour export model, focused on the corridor to Saudi Arabia.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
President Ruto says he wants to send 1 million Kenyans overseas per year in the context of high unemployment- but evidently doesn't mind cutting corners.
Interesting findings from a new JMP (h/t @lgilbert.co), 'The impact of the 2015 earthquake on internal and international migration in Nepal'-
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Manandhar, Shailee_JMP.pdf
drive.google.com
November 11, 2025 at 11:11 AM
Interesting findings from a new JMP (h/t @lgilbert.co), 'The impact of the 2015 earthquake on internal and international migration in Nepal'-
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
Significant decline in international migration from affected districts, especially among men: probability of male migration declines by 28 - 57% ...
This is a really interesting new paper. It's modelling, and has a lot of assumptions, but some very compelling broad-sweep estimates.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
What if there are not enough skilled workers for the energy transition?👷♀️👨🏭
Our new report shows how labour shortages may delay renewable energy deployment and raise emissions. It also introduces the Labour Market Transition Potential Index to assess workforce readiness across countries.
Our new report shows how labour shortages may delay renewable energy deployment and raise emissions. It also introduces the Labour Market Transition Potential Index to assess workforce readiness across countries.
The impacts of skills shortages on global power sector emissions
This study explores how shortages of skilled workers for the energy transition could undermine global emissions pathways. Using a novel model linking labour supply and renewable energy development, it...
bit.ly
October 31, 2025 at 10:48 AM
This is a really interesting new paper. It's modelling, and has a lot of assumptions, but some very compelling broad-sweep estimates.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
It suggests that decarbonisation-related workforce demand will not be met, and that this will have a material -enormous- impact on emissions trajectories.
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: Christian Dustmann, Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler provide an empirical framework to decompose the regional effects of immigration on labor markets. A thread 🧵 below 👇
October 22, 2025 at 12:07 PM
🆕 RFBerlin Discussion Paper: Christian Dustmann, Sebastian Otten, Uta Schönberg and Jan Stuhler provide an empirical framework to decompose the regional effects of immigration on labor markets. A thread 🧵 below 👇
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
One manifestation of Labour’s “everything is polling” approach to government is that they visibly think of policy not in departmental solos but in issue polling silos. Your immigration choices and your levies on business are the same picture!
B2 or not B2? Some thoughts on the government’s latest announcement on immigration (and why the most striking bit isn’t the posturing about English):
Labour’s big blind spot in UK immigration policy
To make it seem tough on legal routes, the government introduces radical measures with uncertain effects
www.ft.com
October 15, 2025 at 10:14 AM
One manifestation of Labour’s “everything is polling” approach to government is that they visibly think of policy not in departmental solos but in issue polling silos. Your immigration choices and your levies on business are the same picture!
Fascinating update on Kenyan labour export efforts-
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
Strengthening Kenya’s Global Labour Diplomacy Through Strategic Partnerships - The Coast Media Group
By Andrew Mwangura Email, [email protected] Kenya’s recent diplomatic strides in the realm of labour mobility...
www.thecoast.co.ke
October 14, 2025 at 1:30 PM
Fascinating update on Kenyan labour export efforts-
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
'In September 2025, a high-level Kenyan delegation... embarked on a strategic mission across eight Canadian provinces' to discuss labour migration partnerships.
Note Kenya has a stated aim of sending 1m workers overseas per year until 2028.
Woah- this is outside my normal field of vision, but the expulsion of 770,000 migrants from Russia would have big consequences. Most are from Central Asia- and some of these countries are highly reliant on remittance flows from Russia.
770,000 migrants told to leave Russia
Speaker of the Russian State Duma Vyacheslav Volodin on October 13 announced that 770,000 migrants, who largely hail from Central Asia, ...
www.intellinews.com
October 14, 2025 at 8:49 AM
Woah- this is outside my normal field of vision, but the expulsion of 770,000 migrants from Russia would have big consequences. Most are from Central Asia- and some of these countries are highly reliant on remittance flows from Russia.
Interesting FT piece on import of Chinese 'green' workers into Europe-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
China sends 2,000 workers to build battery power in Europe
Massive labour import to Spain spotlights EU’s dependence on Beijing’s EV tech
on.ft.com
October 8, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Interesting FT piece on import of Chinese 'green' workers into Europe-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
'To build the [battery] plant CATL has told local officials it will bring in a total of 2,000 of its own workers on a rotating basis' into Spain.
But are they due to lack of skills, or to prevent knowledge transfer?
Gift link-
A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
October 7, 2025 at 10:09 AM
A good summary of the domestic vs. international recruitment tradeoff in a new @ciob.bsky.social report- here focused on the construction sector, but relevant to policy-driven decarbonisation labour demand.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
Nutshell: if you want a domestic recruitment focus, you need longterm policy reliability.
A striking chart: in 2021 (the last census), there were roughly as many workers leaving UK clean energy industries due to retirement *each year* as there were *in total* aged under 25 in the sector.
www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...
www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...
October 2, 2025 at 11:01 AM
A striking chart: in 2021 (the last census), there were roughly as many workers leaving UK clean energy industries due to retirement *each year* as there were *in total* aged under 25 in the sector.
www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...
www.standardlife.co.uk/centre-for-t...
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
Eye-catching report on how migrants will be essential to plug widening green skills gaps in many of the world's cities. www.businessgreen.com/news/4519631...
Report: Migrant workers needed to help fill $280bn global green jobs opportunity
Report calls for reforms to enable more migration to help drive climate action and economic growth, as local workers will not be sufficient to fill looming green skills gaps
www.businessgreen.com
September 29, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Eye-catching report on how migrants will be essential to plug widening green skills gaps in many of the world's cities. www.businessgreen.com/news/4519631...
This is a great little blog. The third point, on 'Immigration as an Industrial Strategy' ('not just using immigration to fill labor gaps, but using it strategically to catalyze new industries') is very relevant to current discussions around workforce for the green transition.
In today's blog, I discuss 3 ways for international migration to be part of a structural transformation policy: 1) as an industry itself; 2) training people abroad in the skills to develop a new industry at home; and 3) through immigration (eg Start-up Chile) blogs.worldbank.org/en/impacteva...
International Migration as a Structural Transformation Policy
blogs.worldbank.org
September 29, 2025 at 1:45 PM
This is a great little blog. The third point, on 'Immigration as an Industrial Strategy' ('not just using immigration to fill labor gaps, but using it strategically to catalyze new industries') is very relevant to current discussions around workforce for the green transition.
Investments into Denmark's green transition are worryingly tailing off.
Nonetheless, the country is warned to face major labour shortages.
Nonetheless, the country is warned to face major labour shortages.
Danish job market in green energy predicted to see big decline
Denmark’s “green” transition is facing a severe slowdown that threatens both jobs and investment. An analysis published today from consulting group COWI, Labour Union 3F and the Labour Movement’s…
brusselssignal.eu
September 29, 2025 at 10:06 AM
Investments into Denmark's green transition are worryingly tailing off.
Nonetheless, the country is warned to face major labour shortages.
Nonetheless, the country is warned to face major labour shortages.
Australia announces (in its new National Adaptation Plan) that it will be creating 'a specific policy need around the planned relocation of whole communities'.
www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...
www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...
www.dcceew.gov.au
September 15, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Australia announces (in its new National Adaptation Plan) that it will be creating 'a specific policy need around the planned relocation of whole communities'.
www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...
www.dcceew.gov.au/climate-chan...
To my surprise, the World Bank's recent 139-page report on 'Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work' doesn't mention the word 'climate' once...
Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.
Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.
September 8, 2025 at 10:51 AM
To my surprise, the World Bank's recent 139-page report on 'Making Refugee Self-Reliance Work' doesn't mention the word 'climate' once...
Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.
Given the contexts of many refugee-hosting countries, self-reliance initiatives that don't take climate into account are likely to under-perform.
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
September 5, 2025 at 6:50 AM
Radical right accommodation really does not work.
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
New paper out with this exceptionally talented team
@katharinalawall.bsky.social @robjohns75.bsky.social @drjennings.bsky.social @sarahobolt.bsky.social @zachdickson.bsky.social @danjdevine.bsky.social & @jack-bailey.co.uk
doi.org/10.31235/osf...
This kind of thing is where Scott Barrett's idea of climate-targeted trade agreements is really interesting. If you can get people to agree they will only trade steel at this technology standard, and reassure them that they will only need to do this if everyone else does, you're getting somewhere.
September 3, 2025 at 9:32 PM
This kind of thing is where Scott Barrett's idea of climate-targeted trade agreements is really interesting. If you can get people to agree they will only trade steel at this technology standard, and reassure them that they will only need to do this if everyone else does, you're getting somewhere.
Australia:
Decarbonisation 'risks being undermined by "overlooked" skills shortages, with a predicted shortfall of 42,000 trade workers next decade...
Electrical training 'has fallen by about 40 per cent over the last decade', with a current shortage of 22,000 apprentices (40% increase).
Decarbonisation 'risks being undermined by "overlooked" skills shortages, with a predicted shortfall of 42,000 trade workers next decade...
Electrical training 'has fallen by about 40 per cent over the last decade', with a current shortage of 22,000 apprentices (40% increase).
Net zero transition at risk of stalling amid shortfall of 42,000 workers
The Powering Skills Organisation warns the current energy workforce of 300,000 energy, gas and renewables sector workers will not be sufficient to meet demand and further investment in training will b...
www.abc.net.au
August 28, 2025 at 11:03 AM
Australia:
Decarbonisation 'risks being undermined by "overlooked" skills shortages, with a predicted shortfall of 42,000 trade workers next decade...
Electrical training 'has fallen by about 40 per cent over the last decade', with a current shortage of 22,000 apprentices (40% increase).
Decarbonisation 'risks being undermined by "overlooked" skills shortages, with a predicted shortfall of 42,000 trade workers next decade...
Electrical training 'has fallen by about 40 per cent over the last decade', with a current shortage of 22,000 apprentices (40% increase).
Good news on India's domestic solar installation, especially in the context of the US tariffs- in 2023 and 2024 more than 97% of India's solar PV exports went to the US. Growing domestic demand is now more crucial than ever.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c...
ieefa.org/resources/in...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c...
ieefa.org/resources/in...
August 28, 2025 at 10:38 AM
Good news on India's domestic solar installation, especially in the context of the US tariffs- in 2023 and 2024 more than 97% of India's solar PV exports went to the US. Growing domestic demand is now more crucial than ever.
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c...
ieefa.org/resources/in...
www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/c...
ieefa.org/resources/in...
'Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable'- a good new article by a fair who's who in climate/migration research.
Key points:
1) hard limits to habitability should not be declared without context-specific assessments;
2) model-based projections do not show inevitable futures;
Key points:
1) hard limits to habitability should not be declared without context-specific assessments;
2) model-based projections do not show inevitable futures;
Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable - IOPscience
Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable, Boas, Ingrid, Sterly, Harald, Farbotko, Carol, Hulme, Mike, Benveniste, Hélène, Schewel, Kerilyn D, Bettini, Giovanni, Borderon, Marion, Hof...
doi.org
August 27, 2025 at 10:31 AM
'Climate-induced redistribution of people is not inevitable'- a good new article by a fair who's who in climate/migration research.
Key points:
1) hard limits to habitability should not be declared without context-specific assessments;
2) model-based projections do not show inevitable futures;
Key points:
1) hard limits to habitability should not be declared without context-specific assessments;
2) model-based projections do not show inevitable futures;
Reposted by Sam Huckstep
US renewable investment is down 36 percent this year, while in Europe it's up 63 percent (from the @heatmap.news morning newsletter)
August 26, 2025 at 2:20 PM
US renewable investment is down 36 percent this year, while in Europe it's up 63 percent (from the @heatmap.news morning newsletter)
17 African countries have more off-grid diesel generation capacity than they have on-grid power plant capacity.
Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.
Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.
The first evidence of a take-off in solar in Africa | Ember
There has been a major pick-up in solar panel imports into Africa over the last 12 months - a shift that is likely to impact almost every country on the continent.
ember-energy.org
August 26, 2025 at 12:30 PM
17 African countries have more off-grid diesel generation capacity than they have on-grid power plant capacity.
Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.
Many of them are now bringing in solar panels at a staggering new rate. These will displace high-carbon energy sources- a fantastic accelerating trend.
Good summary of striking new research (below).
In Germany, 'the energy transition will require approximately 157,000 additional workers by 2030 and 102,000 by 2040.'
Plus 40,000 more by 2030 for adaptation.
Currently, finding qualified workers in key sectors takes an average of over 100 days.
In Germany, 'the energy transition will require approximately 157,000 additional workers by 2030 and 102,000 by 2040.'
Plus 40,000 more by 2030 for adaptation.
Currently, finding qualified workers in key sectors takes an average of over 100 days.
August 19, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Good summary of striking new research (below).
In Germany, 'the energy transition will require approximately 157,000 additional workers by 2030 and 102,000 by 2040.'
Plus 40,000 more by 2030 for adaptation.
Currently, finding qualified workers in key sectors takes an average of over 100 days.
In Germany, 'the energy transition will require approximately 157,000 additional workers by 2030 and 102,000 by 2040.'
Plus 40,000 more by 2030 for adaptation.
Currently, finding qualified workers in key sectors takes an average of over 100 days.
Ireland wants to build its wind project pipeline, but lacks workers:
'Around 2,800 FTE jobs a year will be created delivering Ireland’s capacity targets to 2030... In the short term though there is a domestic skills gap, so many of the workers needed to deliver 5GW by 2030 will come from abroad.'
'Around 2,800 FTE jobs a year will be created delivering Ireland’s capacity targets to 2030... In the short term though there is a domestic skills gap, so many of the workers needed to deliver 5GW by 2030 will come from abroad.'
From words to wind turbines: Making Ireland’s ambition a reality | New Civil Engineer
At a recent event at the Dublin Chamber of Commerce, the minister for transport Dara O’Brien made it clear that the next five years will be focused around
www.newcivilengineer.com
August 19, 2025 at 9:10 AM
Ireland wants to build its wind project pipeline, but lacks workers:
'Around 2,800 FTE jobs a year will be created delivering Ireland’s capacity targets to 2030... In the short term though there is a domestic skills gap, so many of the workers needed to deliver 5GW by 2030 will come from abroad.'
'Around 2,800 FTE jobs a year will be created delivering Ireland’s capacity targets to 2030... In the short term though there is a domestic skills gap, so many of the workers needed to deliver 5GW by 2030 will come from abroad.'
Fijian workers in Australia send home Fi$2,010 (~US$1,000) per month.
Fiji's Minister of Employment to migrants: “This is your opportunity to transform your family’s struggles into success. The choices you make today will affect not only your future but also the future of your loved ones.”
Fiji's Minister of Employment to migrants: “This is your opportunity to transform your family’s struggles into success. The choices you make today will affect not only your future but also the future of your loved ones.”
Fijian workers in Australia send home $2,010 monthly, Minister Singh reveals - The Fiji Times
Fijian workers in Australia are sending home an average of $2,010 each month, directly benefiting families, communities, the vanua and the national economy, says Minister for Employment Agni Deo Singh...
www.fijitimes.com.fj
August 18, 2025 at 12:21 PM
Fijian workers in Australia send home Fi$2,010 (~US$1,000) per month.
Fiji's Minister of Employment to migrants: “This is your opportunity to transform your family’s struggles into success. The choices you make today will affect not only your future but also the future of your loved ones.”
Fiji's Minister of Employment to migrants: “This is your opportunity to transform your family’s struggles into success. The choices you make today will affect not only your future but also the future of your loved ones.”