Sébastien Roblin
@sebastienroblin.bsky.social
I write about defense, history and aviation for Popular Mechanics, 19Fortyfive, Forbes, CNN, NBC, Inside Unmanned Systems. In past, National Interest. Former Peace Corps China.
Zelensky has announced a new deal for Ukraine to potentially acquire up to 100 Rafale fighters plus 8 SAMP-T air defense 'systems'. Abstractly exciting , but concretely the question of how to fund 100 Rafales and/or 150 Swedish Gripens overhangs all. 1/4
How Ukraine's Rafale jets deal could turn tide of war against Russia
Ukraine's air force has been bolstered by fourth-generation aircraft from its allies, like the U.S.-made F-16.
www.newsweek.com
November 17, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Zelensky has announced a new deal for Ukraine to potentially acquire up to 100 Rafale fighters plus 8 SAMP-T air defense 'systems'. Abstractly exciting , but concretely the question of how to fund 100 Rafales and/or 150 Swedish Gripens overhangs all. 1/4
For Veteran's Day, a few stories of service, colorful and tragic alike. First of all, the island that blew up and the man who survived it. 1/5
U.S. Marine’s Journal Tells Firsthand Account Of Platoon’s Sacrifice In World War II
Private Wilson was a great dice player.
Private Ingram took five men to kill him.
These are just a few of the observations dutifully scrawled into the journal of Joseph P. Nicoletto regarding the 45 ...
www.forbes.com
November 11, 2025 at 7:26 PM
For Veteran's Day, a few stories of service, colorful and tragic alike. First of all, the island that blew up and the man who survived it. 1/5
Star Chamber courts for service members: "The Pentagon is now conducting a witch hunt to find trans people in the ranks. If a service member is accused of being trans, then a board will hear evidence and be tasked with deciding whether that person meets the military’s definition of trans..."
Purged trans Space Force colonel says she'll keep fighting for democracy out of uniform - LGBTQ Nation
"That oath has no expiration date."
www.lgbtqnation.com
November 10, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Star Chamber courts for service members: "The Pentagon is now conducting a witch hunt to find trans people in the ranks. If a service member is accused of being trans, then a board will hear evidence and be tasked with deciding whether that person meets the military’s definition of trans..."
A typically egregious example of illiteracy by editor writing headlines. The text by article author doesn't say anything inaccurate to my knowledge, but editor-chosen headline says 'jets' when describing a helicopter + jet fighter; says they 'vanished' when both ditched and had crews rescued.
November 9, 2025 at 6:17 PM
A typically egregious example of illiteracy by editor writing headlines. The text by article author doesn't say anything inaccurate to my knowledge, but editor-chosen headline says 'jets' when describing a helicopter + jet fighter; says they 'vanished' when both ditched and had crews rescued.
Kyiv says its working with Stockholm to buy 100-150 modern Gripen-E jet fighters starting 2029+. Read on for cost questions, why Kyiv is focusing on Gripens particularly & insights as to how this 4.5-generation fighter could challenge Russian airpower.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/dispersed-ch...
Dispersed, Cheap, Deadly: The JAS 39 Gripen-E Blueprint Ukraine Wants
A Ukraine–Sweden Gripen-E deal could restore Kyiv’s fighter fleet, add Meteor missiles and Erieye control—and upend Russia’s standoff tactics. Funding is the rub.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
November 3, 2025 at 3:55 PM
Kyiv says its working with Stockholm to buy 100-150 modern Gripen-E jet fighters starting 2029+. Read on for cost questions, why Kyiv is focusing on Gripens particularly & insights as to how this 4.5-generation fighter could challenge Russian airpower.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/dispersed-ch...
Good piece by @drfarls.bsky.social on dangerous misconception that a single nuke suffices to erase a metropolis and everybody in it. The point isn't to minimize horrific loss of life, but sheltering after early warning improves survival odds.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-question...
The Question I Asked After Watching House of Dynamite
Missile inbound? Don’t panic or go outside. CEP, yield, and misfires matter—shelter fast. One warhead isn’t Armageddon; smart steps hugely improve survival.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
November 3, 2025 at 3:00 PM
Good piece by @drfarls.bsky.social on dangerous misconception that a single nuke suffices to erase a metropolis and everybody in it. The point isn't to minimize horrific loss of life, but sheltering after early warning improves survival odds.1/2 nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-question...
Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
Alongside dozens of videos showing the mass execution of civilians, including women, children, and medical staff, new satellite imagery analyzed for the 2nd consecutive day by HRL_YaleSPH reveals atrocities by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces so extensive they are visible from orbit
October 29, 2025 at 4:57 AM
Alongside dozens of videos showing the mass execution of civilians, including women, children, and medical staff, new satellite imagery analyzed for the 2nd consecutive day by HRL_YaleSPH reveals atrocities by Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces so extensive they are visible from orbit
The proposed defense budget (NDAA) goes all in on drones--but how much does it spend on which programs? Read my magazine feature with a deep dive into Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps programs of record for UAVs, USVs and UGVs--and those that *didn't* make the record. 1/4
Inside Unmanned Systems October/November 2025 Page 48
lsc-pagepro.mydigitalpublication.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM
The proposed defense budget (NDAA) goes all in on drones--but how much does it spend on which programs? Read my magazine feature with a deep dive into Army, Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps programs of record for UAVs, USVs and UGVs--and those that *didn't* make the record. 1/4
Shield AI says it's developing an X-BAT drone fighter last week intended to take off and lands vertically using an F-16 turbofan targeting greater range, speed, stealth and autonomy than current loyal wingmen. Read on for thoughts on underlying theory/application and challenges to realizing concept.
Shield AI Develops X-BAT Vertical Takeoff Drone
Shield AI unveiled last week its development of a new X-BAT aircraft that may be the most unconventional concept of the new breed of fighter-like Unmanned Comba
insideunmannedsystems.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:11 PM
Shield AI says it's developing an X-BAT drone fighter last week intended to take off and lands vertically using an F-16 turbofan targeting greater range, speed, stealth and autonomy than current loyal wingmen. Read on for thoughts on underlying theory/application and challenges to realizing concept.
Saw old piece of mine on AIP/diesel-electric submarines cited here arguing their cost-efficiency for littoral sea denial missions. An interesting debate, but current events point to their risks! For U.S. they're a forward-basing, alliance commitment asset-and current admin is 100% opposed to that!
The Path to a Bigger Submarine Fleet Includes Diesels
A mix of nuclear and diesel-electric boats could preserve U.S. undersea dominance.
www.usni.org
October 9, 2025 at 3:32 PM
Saw old piece of mine on AIP/diesel-electric submarines cited here arguing their cost-efficiency for littoral sea denial missions. An interesting debate, but current events point to their risks! For U.S. they're a forward-basing, alliance commitment asset-and current admin is 100% opposed to that!
Why is the Air Force's 93rd Air Ground Operations Wing buying the C100 heavy quadcopter drones being procured for Army infantry companies? Official statements are vague, but it may have to do with lasers, F-35s and a founder of the drone racing league.
Key Air Force Unit Buys The Army’s New Heavy Quadcopter Drone
An order of C100 drones by the Air Force's 93rd Air Ground Operations Wing could be all about enabling portable drones to guide attacks by big warplanes—using lasers!
www.forbes.com
October 9, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Why is the Air Force's 93rd Air Ground Operations Wing buying the C100 heavy quadcopter drones being procured for Army infantry companies? Official statements are vague, but it may have to do with lasers, F-35s and a founder of the drone racing league.
Interesting Atlantic piece on current frontline reality in Ukraine: low single-digit teams of soldiers hiding in forests and houses to avoid drone attacks. The author assess that Ukraine may have achieved a newly sustainable equilibrium vs. Russian attacks. www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
MSN
www.msn.com
October 7, 2025 at 10:08 PM
Interesting Atlantic piece on current frontline reality in Ukraine: low single-digit teams of soldiers hiding in forests and houses to avoid drone attacks. The author assess that Ukraine may have achieved a newly sustainable equilibrium vs. Russian attacks. www.msn.com/en-us/news/w...
America's World War II battleships saw last combat use in 1991. Trump recently suggested they make a comeback. Aesthetics aside, read on for why that makes little sense in 21st century + thoughts on what future large future warships may look like instead. nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-great-u-...
The Great U.S. Navy Battleship Comeback Will Never Happen
Battleships look epic—but missiles, VLS cells, and DDG(X) destroyers win modern wars. Here’s why big-gun behemoths won’t be coming back anytime soon.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
October 7, 2025 at 4:49 PM
America's World War II battleships saw last combat use in 1991. Trump recently suggested they make a comeback. Aesthetics aside, read on for why that makes little sense in 21st century + thoughts on what future large future warships may look like instead. nationalsecurityjournal.org/the-great-u-...
Jacobsen's "Nuclear War: A Scenario"--which quotes one of my articles!--has made a splash with the public, but not with nuclear arms experts. This lengthy thread lists problems with the chain of events described in the book, including use of 1960s lens to current tech/doctrine.
alright the shorter faster version of this
I really would like to read a detailed debunking article from someone with this kind of experience on nuclear war plans about house of dynamite and/or jacobsen's book because all I see from like professional critics is the typical "chilling, sobering...she's obviously done her homework"
October 3, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Jacobsen's "Nuclear War: A Scenario"--which quotes one of my articles!--has made a splash with the public, but not with nuclear arms experts. This lengthy thread lists problems with the chain of events described in the book, including use of 1960s lens to current tech/doctrine.
Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
I know these guys are all dumber than a sack of hammers, but it is fascinating to see the military decide “logistics are gay” in real time
October 2, 2025 at 12:51 PM
I know these guys are all dumber than a sack of hammers, but it is fascinating to see the military decide “logistics are gay” in real time
Reposted by Sébastien Roblin
A PR person for ABC asked me to stop asking about Pete Hegseth's speech during this episode about the death of Vanessa Guillén.
They emailed me today and asked I not include the interruption in the final show.
I will not. So tune in to listen to a lecture from a PR person about Guillén's legacy.
They emailed me today and asked I not include the interruption in the final show.
I will not. So tune in to listen to a lecture from a PR person about Guillén's legacy.
Vanessa Guillén and the Importance of Speaking Up
Hey there Angry Planet listeners, Matthew here.
angryplanetpod.com
October 1, 2025 at 9:37 PM
A PR person for ABC asked me to stop asking about Pete Hegseth's speech during this episode about the death of Vanessa Guillén.
They emailed me today and asked I not include the interruption in the final show.
I will not. So tune in to listen to a lecture from a PR person about Guillén's legacy.
They emailed me today and asked I not include the interruption in the final show.
I will not. So tune in to listen to a lecture from a PR person about Guillén's legacy.
France and Germany are struggling to work together on their FCAS 6th-generation fighter. Read on for why, how each has different problems going it alone, whether Germany's ideas of partnering with UK or Sweden are viable, and why I think a divorce is an 'everyone loses' outcome.
Coming Soon: The Great FCAS 6th-Generation Fighter Divorce?
If France and Germany split on FCAS, Europe risks higher costs, thinner exports, and delays—while GCAP gains leverage. Here’s who wins, who loses, and why it matters.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
October 1, 2025 at 4:14 PM
France and Germany are struggling to work together on their FCAS 6th-generation fighter. Read on for why, how each has different problems going it alone, whether Germany's ideas of partnering with UK or Sweden are viable, and why I think a divorce is an 'everyone loses' outcome.
The Pentagon is reequipping infantry brigades with M1301 Infantry Squad Vehicles-Chevy pickup trucks-more expensive than Humvees yet leaving troops far more exposed. Attached to combat squads but not intended for combat, an officer shares why he fears they're bad at both. DoD testers seem to agree.
The Army’s New Trucks Have No Armor or Doors. That’s Like Sending Soldiers to Their Deaths, Officer Warns.
The new Infantry Squad Vehicles cannot survive enemy fire—or even carry three days’ worth of supplies, an insider tells us in an exclusive interview.
www.popularmechanics.com
September 24, 2025 at 3:57 PM
The Pentagon is reequipping infantry brigades with M1301 Infantry Squad Vehicles-Chevy pickup trucks-more expensive than Humvees yet leaving troops far more exposed. Attached to combat squads but not intended for combat, an officer shares why he fears they're bad at both. DoD testers seem to agree.
China's large Jiutian 'mothership' drone supposedly could release a hundred small, killer drones from high altitude to search and destroy individual targets. A scary concept--but read on for why it must overcome multiple major practical problems in execution.
China’s Huge New ‘Drone Mothership’ Could Release 100 Small Killer Robots. Why Isn’t America Building One?
This airliner-sized drone is fearsome, but it has drawbacks, too.
www.popularmechanics.com
September 23, 2025 at 3:05 PM
China's large Jiutian 'mothership' drone supposedly could release a hundred small, killer drones from high altitude to search and destroy individual targets. A scary concept--but read on for why it must overcome multiple major practical problems in execution.
A military parade revealed China is simultaneously developing large exquisite stealth drone fighters AND lower cost Western-style Loyal Wingmen jets. Read on for a look at key features visible on these airframes, and thoughts on possible use cases for higher-end 'exquisite' drone fighters.
China Reveals Large New Stealth Fighter Drones Alongside Collaborative Combat Aircraft
A military parade in Beijing on September 3, 2025 saw the unveiling of many new weapon systems quietly under development by China’s military-industrial comple
insideunmannedsystems.com
September 17, 2025 at 3:11 PM
A military parade revealed China is simultaneously developing large exquisite stealth drone fighters AND lower cost Western-style Loyal Wingmen jets. Read on for a look at key features visible on these airframes, and thoughts on possible use cases for higher-end 'exquisite' drone fighters.
The Navy said it wasn't hurrying to develop drone fighters called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). But last week revealed 5x contracts for carrier-based CCA concepts! Read on for contractors, challenges of carrier drone ops, Navy's divergent CCA concept & politics behind Navy's about face.1/2
September 12, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The Navy said it wasn't hurrying to develop drone fighters called Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs). But last week revealed 5x contracts for carrier-based CCA concepts! Read on for contractors, challenges of carrier drone ops, Navy's divergent CCA concept & politics behind Navy's about face.1/2
If the Navy's F/A-XX fighter ever happens, (unreliable) concept art hints it might resemble Boeing's F-47...or Northrop-Grumman's legendary YF-23 Black Widow prototype. Read on for YF-23's qualities vs rival YF-22, its carrier-based NATF-23 variant & the Congress vs. DoD battle over F/A-XX.
The YF-23 Black Widow II Could 'Rescue' the Navy's F/A-XX Fighter
Could the legendary YF-23 Black Widow make a comeback? New art for the Navy's F/A-XX fighter hints that the jet that lost to the F-22 may get a second chance.
nationalsecurityjournal.org
September 11, 2025 at 4:07 PM
If the Navy's F/A-XX fighter ever happens, (unreliable) concept art hints it might resemble Boeing's F-47...or Northrop-Grumman's legendary YF-23 Black Widow prototype. Read on for YF-23's qualities vs rival YF-22, its carrier-based NATF-23 variant & the Congress vs. DoD battle over F/A-XX.
An illustrative break down: if Russia launched a full-scale nuclear counterforce attack, ie. one aimed at disabling U.S. nuclear forces & their command & control actuators, what are the obvious priority targets? (Make sure to go down thread for the full list.)
Russia in a "more than a messaging strike but less than we just want to kill people"
- DC
- Omaha (specifically Offutt)
- Barksdale, Minot, Whiteman, Ellsworth, and Dyess
- missile fields (hitting each silo and the LCCs with a fairly high yield ground burst) + the missile bases
- Kings Bay + Bangor
- DC
- Omaha (specifically Offutt)
- Barksdale, Minot, Whiteman, Ellsworth, and Dyess
- missile fields (hitting each silo and the LCCs with a fairly high yield ground burst) + the missile bases
- Kings Bay + Bangor
September 10, 2025 at 5:59 AM
An illustrative break down: if Russia launched a full-scale nuclear counterforce attack, ie. one aimed at disabling U.S. nuclear forces & their command & control actuators, what are the obvious priority targets? (Make sure to go down thread for the full list.)
Gift link to NYT piece on the newly revealed failed Navy SEAL mission in 2019 that resulted in the death of North Korean civilians.
How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart
www.nytimes.com
September 8, 2025 at 5:55 PM
Gift link to NYT piece on the newly revealed failed Navy SEAL mission in 2019 that resulted in the death of North Korean civilians.
Recently photo emerged of a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol plane fitted with an AGM-158 LRASM missile, the U.S.'s most advanced anti-ship missile. Based on 737 airliner, P-8s ordinarily focus on anti-submarine patrols. Now it can also serve as anti-ship bomber, a concept I wrote about in 2020. 1/3
Should the United States Turn Its P-8 Poseidons Into Anti-Ship Bombers?
Here’s What You Need To Remember: The demand for bombers that can both support troops on the ground and bring long-range anti-ship capabilities remains high—particularly as the Air Force is considerin...
nationalinterest.org
September 7, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Recently photo emerged of a P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol plane fitted with an AGM-158 LRASM missile, the U.S.'s most advanced anti-ship missile. Based on 737 airliner, P-8s ordinarily focus on anti-submarine patrols. Now it can also serve as anti-ship bomber, a concept I wrote about in 2020. 1/3