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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh
@shxnhugh.bsky.social
480 followers 110 following 88 posts
Chasing the realignment.
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2h
Ishin now entering discussions to vote for Takaichi as PM-designate in the vote next week. Would be enough to deprive the Opposition of a majority...but would also push Komei + CDP closer together and leave the Osaka LDP curious.
tobiasharris.bsky.social
Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · 8h
The opposition parties are intensifying their discussions about a coalition, while the LDP tries to prevent their cooperation. Takaichi, meanwhile, is fending off calls to let Ishiba stay on as PM. All of this plus new polling in a new Japan Daily Briefing.

open.substack.com/pub/observin...
Confusion reigns | Japan Daily Briefing
With a date for a new Diet session settled, the LDP and opposition parties are stepping up their efforts to take the premiership
open.substack.com
shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 14h
New Japan poll:

LDP 27.4 (-0.5)
KOMEI 3.2 (+0.1)
CPJ 0.7 (-1.1)
DIY 4.5 (-1.8 )
JRP 1.7 (-1.9)
TM 0.4 (--)
DPP 4.8 (-0.9)
CDP 5.6 (+0.6)
RS 1.2 (-0.5)
SDP 0.2 (-0.5)
JCP 2.6 (-0.3)
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2d
Con/Lab/Lib uni party strikes again!!!
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2d
Have college homework to do but once that's done in the next day or so, expect a piece out soon about the Takaichi effect on the next general election 👀
shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2d
Ozawa has been suspiciously quiet lately...
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2d
First as tragedy...
shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 2d
1993 called it wants its coalition back
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Reposted by Hugh
pauljnadeau.bsky.social
Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4d
My glass half-full view of what comes next for Japan's politics is that minority rule forces parties to come together pragmatically issue-by-issue, passing solutions that are closer to public priorities and therefore more legitimate, a little like Ishiba's experience: clumsy, but functional
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sharonk.bsky.social
Sharon @sharonk.bsky.social · 4d
this is a rich text
Mason22531 @Mason54213 🇭🇰🇨🇦 yuricon weeb. YorkU Alumni ’24. Joe Manchin/Pierre Poilievre/Nigel Farage fan. #黒川あかね's and #Ani's (Grok-chan) most loyal simp.
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pauljnadeau.bsky.social
Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4d
Takaichi could cooperate on policy with Tamaki and his DPFP, but he's not going to deliver the votes that Komeito could (tbh I'm putting it politely) and a lot of LDP seats just got a lot more vulnerable whenever the next election happens
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · 4d
Fun day for you!!
1
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pauljnadeau.bsky.social
Paul Nadeau @pauljnadeau.bsky.social · 4d
Get ready for the multipolar era of Japanese politics...lots of parties, none with much of an identifiable advantage over the other, few critical constituencies to leverage, little public sympathy for anyone
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Reposted by Hugh
richardzussman.bsky.social
Richard Zussman @richardzussman.bsky.social · 22d
NEW - Elenore Sturko has been removed from the Conservative caucus. The leader’s office has not provided any formal details as to why. #bcpoli
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Aug 7
Potential candidate for the BC Greens in Victoria-Beacon Hill if a by-election is triggered, perhaps?
emilylowan.bsky.social
Emily Lowan (she/her) @emilylowan.bsky.social · Aug 7
Such a kind endorsement, thank you Councillor Caradonna! Jeremy is fiercely committed to serving the people of Victoria and is an unwavering force in our fight for a better world. ⚡ #bcpoli #bcgreens @jeremycaradonnayyj.bsky.social
Reposted by Hugh
dylandifford.bsky.social
Dylan Difford @dylandifford.bsky.social · Aug 2
127/ British election night coverage needs to go completely back to the drawing board. It has become a pointless mess of endless talking heads, with results and analysis seemingly seen as an inconvenient side show. You have most of the best psephologists in the country working with you – use them!
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sky.skymarchini.net
Sky Marchini @sky.skymarchini.net · Aug 3
“The earthquake in New York City got me thinking about how you used to make my earth quake every day. There was real magnitude to our love. No need to text back.”
“Got me Thinking” text meme
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Reposted by Hugh
tobiasharris.bsky.social
Tobias Harris @tobiasharris.bsky.social · Aug 1
In thinking more about the right wing's conflict with MOF, I'm reading this book that's a conversation between two Sankei journalists. On virtually every page Abe is getting mad at someone. They literally
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Reposted by Hugh
rmarcantuoni.bsky.social
Romeo Marcantuoni @rmarcantuoni.bsky.social · Jul 30
1. It's far-right: Sanseito was always on the far-right from its early inception. It promoted alternative views on history and were skeptical of climate change (something that an early founder, Kazuya, was uncomfortable with).
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Reposted by Hugh
mdnoshaughnessy.bsky.social
Michael O’Shaughnessy @mdnoshaughnessy.bsky.social · Jul 29
I actually kind of thing centre-lefties were lied to so they don’t get the fall for it again award yet.

This is reserved for ppl who vote liberal again:
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
Yes, they're both similar parties on the Third Pole. Ishin's current deputy/co-leader is the infamous party hopper Maehara Seiji (formerly with the DPFP)
shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
Ishin also supports making higher ed. free 💀
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
to gain support among the working generation which had supported the LDP in 2012 and continued to vote for Abe due to the long shadow of the "nightmare DPJ administration."
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
DPFP is NOT that right-wing, the party traces its lineage from the wreckage of the DP implosion after Maehara folded the party. Tamaki retooled Koike's vehicle for his own purposes and gained traction w/ a singular focus on "increasing take home pay" (1/x)
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
Kobayashi is the best Jenrick analogue, but needs a lot of work.

There's evidence Takaichi could stabilize the ship by winning over conservative defections and whip up a coalition w/ DPFP + DIY but lose the Komeito.

Powerbrokers (Kishida, Ishiba) would favour Koizumi or Hayashi to ally w/ Ishin.
sharonk.bsky.social
Sharon @sharonk.bsky.social · Jul 23
one thing i am genuinely curious is if/when Ishiba steps down: who exactly does the LDP put in that can repair the party back into an electoral machine?
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shxnhugh.bsky.social
Hugh @shxnhugh.bsky.social · Jul 28
New poll shows that in the 2025 Upper House election, roughly equal amounts of the Sanseito's support came from 2021 LDP voters (32.3%) and previous non-voters (32.8%).