Paul Nadeau
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social
Trade, politics, and geoeconomics. Adjunct associate professor with Temple University Japan, visiting research fellow with the Institute of Geoeconomics/Asia Pacific Initiative, should be GM of the Quebec Nordiques. Usual disclaimers.
Pinned
Paul Nadeau
@pauljnadeau.bsky.social
· Apr 4
If you know any international students in the United States, a colleague of mine made a flier to help students with finding an immigration lawyer. Please share and circulate among your networks:
Big thanks to Miranda Jeyaretnam of Time for including a few of my thoughts on the China - Japan ordeal:
How the China-Japan Rift Could Cost Both Countries
China is trying to impose economic costs on Japan for wading into the issue of Taiwan. But experts say the escalating dispute could ultimately hurt China too.
time.com
November 25, 2025 at 10:22 AM
Big thanks to Miranda Jeyaretnam of Time for including a few of my thoughts on the China - Japan ordeal:
Late to this, but still sad
Jimmy Cliff - One More
YouTube video by Soul of Music
www.youtube.com
November 25, 2025 at 7:52 AM
Late to this, but still sad
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Cannot overstate how, from my perch as a national-security reporter, this would have been an earth-shattering scandal in a prior era.
Billionaire Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, pardoned by Donald Trump, has been accused of facilitating millions of dollars’ worth of payments to Hamas in the wake of its attack on Israel on October 7 2023. Zhao also financed the Trump family's entrance into the cryptocurrency market.
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao accused of facilitating payments to Hamas
Crypto tycoon pardoned by Donald Trump faces US court complaint from families of victims of October 7 attack
www.ft.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:33 AM
Cannot overstate how, from my perch as a national-security reporter, this would have been an earth-shattering scandal in a prior era.
Well this story is going to live in my head every day I live in a city/country/continent away from my parents
Opinion | The People Holding Everyone Together Are Coming Apart
www.nytimes.com
November 25, 2025 at 4:23 AM
Well this story is going to live in my head every day I live in a city/country/continent away from my parents
Yeah the thing about being an assertive China hawk in Japan is that your options for acting on those preferences are somewhere between "slim" and "none"
November 25, 2025 at 3:09 AM
Yeah the thing about being an assertive China hawk in Japan is that your options for acting on those preferences are somewhere between "slim" and "none"
That's the ratio I like to see, great job everyone
November 25, 2025 at 12:46 AM
That's the ratio I like to see, great job everyone
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
When Xi raises Taiwan forcefully, Trump leaves it out of his readout.
1. Trump does NOT want Taiwan to define 🇺🇸–🇨🇳 relations.
He wants trade, deals, optics, and political wins.
2. He does not want to be boxed in by allies’ expectations.
Especially Japan’s new security posture under Takaichi.
1. Trump does NOT want Taiwan to define 🇺🇸–🇨🇳 relations.
He wants trade, deals, optics, and political wins.
2. He does not want to be boxed in by allies’ expectations.
Especially Japan’s new security posture under Takaichi.
November 24, 2025 at 11:13 PM
When Xi raises Taiwan forcefully, Trump leaves it out of his readout.
1. Trump does NOT want Taiwan to define 🇺🇸–🇨🇳 relations.
He wants trade, deals, optics, and political wins.
2. He does not want to be boxed in by allies’ expectations.
Especially Japan’s new security posture under Takaichi.
1. Trump does NOT want Taiwan to define 🇺🇸–🇨🇳 relations.
He wants trade, deals, optics, and political wins.
2. He does not want to be boxed in by allies’ expectations.
Especially Japan’s new security posture under Takaichi.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Bodied by my eldest , frankly
November 24, 2025 at 1:14 PM
Bodied by my eldest , frankly
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
this dumb shit is what i mean when i say this is a purely aesthetic “politics.” yeah man, why can’t we have a fusion of cosmopolitan social democracy and revanchist hierarchies of wealth and privilege? tough question.
Matt Stoller: “..Trump & Mamdani defeated establishment in their own way, representing hunger of voters on the right & left who want something different. If those sides cd come together.. that would be a sea change in how we organize our political economy”.
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
www.thebignewsletter.com/p/monopoly-r...
Monopoly Round-Up: Why the Establishment Freaked Out Over a Mamdani-Trump Press Conference
Meta wins its antitrust case, there are now two fire truck antitrust claims, the stock market got wobbly, and Larry Summers was exiled from the establishment, at least for now.
www.thebignewsletter.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:04 PM
this dumb shit is what i mean when i say this is a purely aesthetic “politics.” yeah man, why can’t we have a fusion of cosmopolitan social democracy and revanchist hierarchies of wealth and privilege? tough question.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Breaking: Viola Ford Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre, has died. She was 111 years old
Viola Ford Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre, has died
Viola Ford Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre, has died. She was 111 years old.
www.whatimreading.net
November 24, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Breaking: Viola Ford Fletcher, the oldest living survivor of the 1921 Tulsa Race Massacre, has died. She was 111 years old
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Please enjoy my cartoon for Tuesday's Toronto Star
November 24, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Please enjoy my cartoon for Tuesday's Toronto Star
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
November 24, 2025 at 8:01 AM
Climate change kills
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
• Heat-related deaths now make up >3% of fatalities in 26 countries, mostly in African and Middle East countries
• Deaths from heat are still about tenth of those caused by cold, but models show temperature-related deaths (from heat & cold) will rise
One of the things that's slipped under the radar of Trump's various tariff agreements is the requirement/demand that countries not impose regulations or digital services taxes on U.S. tech firms, which is effectively using access to the U.S. economy as leverage to export U.S. digital governance
White House agrees to lower tariffs on some goods from Latin America — including Argentinian beef
The U.S. announced new trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador.
www.politico.com
November 24, 2025 at 7:51 AM
One of the things that's slipped under the radar of Trump's various tariff agreements is the requirement/demand that countries not impose regulations or digital services taxes on U.S. tech firms, which is effectively using access to the U.S. economy as leverage to export U.S. digital governance
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
November 23, 2025 at 5:57 PM
And another thing...the idea that politicians are cynical and lean in to conspiracies is a direct result of this as well, because no one can believe that they'd actually mean the things they say sometimes. But when if you've been around them enough, you'd realize that they're being very serious.
If I'm going to be salty (not to OP), I'd say that this is because political scientists see politicians as abstractions in large part because of the heavy turn towards data sets and modeling in the field as opposed to practical experience which would help illustrate the psychological pressures
Political scientists don’t really think about threats of violence as a constraint on elected officials but we really need to be thinking about it this way
November 24, 2025 at 3:39 AM
And another thing...the idea that politicians are cynical and lean in to conspiracies is a direct result of this as well, because no one can believe that they'd actually mean the things they say sometimes. But when if you've been around them enough, you'd realize that they're being very serious.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
thinking about how my parents escaped vietnam, where the CIA destabilized my family's home country by spreading misinformation, and they landed in the united states, which is now getting destabilized bc someone in vietnam is spreading misinformation
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
November 23, 2025 at 5:59 PM
thinking about how my parents escaped vietnam, where the CIA destabilized my family's home country by spreading misinformation, and they landed in the united states, which is now getting destabilized bc someone in vietnam is spreading misinformation
If I'm going to be salty (not to OP), I'd say that this is because political scientists see politicians as abstractions in large part because of the heavy turn towards data sets and modeling in the field as opposed to practical experience which would help illustrate the psychological pressures
Political scientists don’t really think about threats of violence as a constraint on elected officials but we really need to be thinking about it this way
#NEW: Gov. Mike Braun said he and his family are among the Republicans targeted in a wave of threats against state officeholders over Indiana redistricting. www.cnn.com/2025/11/21/…
November 24, 2025 at 12:47 AM
If I'm going to be salty (not to OP), I'd say that this is because political scientists see politicians as abstractions in large part because of the heavy turn towards data sets and modeling in the field as opposed to practical experience which would help illustrate the psychological pressures
Post a movie where you are from
November 24, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Post a movie where you are from
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
November 23, 2025 at 9:23 AM
Twitter pays people based on engagement (views, retweets, comments, etc). It appears that many MAGA accounts are based abroad and they use AI technology to generate low-effort rage bait.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
My guess is that this will get worse as AI tech improves. For instance, fake videos of minorities doing crime.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
Breaking character: I am open to the idea the media's coverage of Biden's age and mental acuity was fair or perhaps not even tough enough. But the fact that it was so much tougher than the coverage of Trump's (more severe) mental decline is damning and I can't see how anyone could argue otherwise.
NYT isn’t worth reading because they are in the bag for Trump
November 21, 2025 at 4:08 PM
Breaking character: I am open to the idea the media's coverage of Biden's age and mental acuity was fair or perhaps not even tough enough. But the fact that it was so much tougher than the coverage of Trump's (more severe) mental decline is damning and I can't see how anyone could argue otherwise.
I've been calling it three-level games, in contrast to two-level games where decisionmakers need to balance between between domestic pressures and international pressures, but now also pressures from a guy in the center with his own impulses and demands and who no one can really figure out
"US senators say they spoke with Rubio about Trump’s Ukraine peace plan who denied it is a US plan." Welcome to the Topsy Turvy administration in which six or seven people are pursuing their own private foreign policy, and much of it is scripted by a hostile foreign power.
US senators say they spoke with Rubio about Trump’s Ukraine peace plan who denied it is a US plan
U.S. senators critical of President Donald Trump’s approach to ending the Russia-Ukraine war say they spoke with U.S.
apnews.com
November 23, 2025 at 3:23 AM
I've been calling it three-level games, in contrast to two-level games where decisionmakers need to balance between between domestic pressures and international pressures, but now also pressures from a guy in the center with his own impulses and demands and who no one can really figure out
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
The thing about Trump saying it’s fine for Mamdani to call him a fascist is that he genuinely thinks all of this is kayfabe, just as he could insult Rubio or Cruz but still work with them. It’s not possible for him to imagine other people being sincere about anything.
November 23, 2025 at 12:20 AM
The thing about Trump saying it’s fine for Mamdani to call him a fascist is that he genuinely thinks all of this is kayfabe, just as he could insult Rubio or Cruz but still work with them. It’s not possible for him to imagine other people being sincere about anything.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
America putting most of its eggs in the generative AI basket, China going hard into green tech. When history looks back on this period, someone is going to look awfully stupid.
November 22, 2025 at 7:18 PM
America putting most of its eggs in the generative AI basket, China going hard into green tech. When history looks back on this period, someone is going to look awfully stupid.
Reposted by Paul Nadeau
🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...
Japan Decides 2024
This book provides a coherent overall explanation for understanding in the election in both historical and comparative perspective
link.springer.com
November 22, 2025 at 11:03 PM
🎉 Just published! JAPAN DECIDES 2024! The most comprehensive analysis and interpretation of last year's general election in Japan––which saw the ruling LDP lose its seat majority and presaged further upheaval in 2025. E-book: link.springer.com/book/10.1007...