Reposted by Simon Horlick
Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping
This report is the outcome of the Nordic Council of Minister’s sponsored workshop arranged in October 21-24, 2025 in Helsinki and Rovaniemi, Finland as part of Finland’s council presidency theme resil...
pub.norden.org
February 5, 2026 at 10:46 AM
Just out today: The report “A Nordic Perspective on AMOC Tipping” reviews the current state of science on the risk of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (#AMOC) shutdown. 🌊
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
Conclusion: it's "a serious risk which requires a dedicated risk management framework".
pub.norden.org/temanord2026...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
NEW RESEARCH: Climate change on track to slash global crop yields by 24% before 2100.
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Climate change will devastate crop yields
A sweeping new analysis finds that warming global temperatures will dampen the world’s capacity to produce food from most staple crops, even after accounting for economic development and adaptation by
agupdate.com
January 27, 2026 at 11:05 PM
NEW RESEARCH: Climate change on track to slash global crop yields by 24% before 2100.
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Like, within the lifespan of your kids.
Also: adaptation and new farmland can’t offset this loss. Sorry, AI can’t fix this.
agupdate.com/agriview/mar...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
This is a truly horrifying account of increasingly likely collapse of essential natural systems which would bring mass food shortages, price rises & global disorder. Commissioned from UK intelligence chiefs but scandalously suppressed by Govt, & sneaked out now while attention is elsewhere 👇
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk
January 20, 2026 at 9:48 PM
This is a truly horrifying account of increasingly likely collapse of essential natural systems which would bring mass food shortages, price rises & global disorder. Commissioned from UK intelligence chiefs but scandalously suppressed by Govt, & sneaked out now while attention is elsewhere 👇
Reposted by Simon Horlick
A short thread about the back story behind our new study. 🌊
A pile of evidence suggests the Atlantic overturning #AMOC (and its surface branch North Atlantic Current) has slowed. But some colleagues were sceptical, arguing the Norwegian Current and its deep return flow haven't slowed. 1/6
A pile of evidence suggests the Atlantic overturning #AMOC (and its surface branch North Atlantic Current) has slowed. But some colleagues were sceptical, arguing the Norwegian Current and its deep return flow haven't slowed. 1/6
January 10, 2026 at 12:34 PM
A short thread about the back story behind our new study. 🌊
A pile of evidence suggests the Atlantic overturning #AMOC (and its surface branch North Atlantic Current) has slowed. But some colleagues were sceptical, arguing the Norwegian Current and its deep return flow haven't slowed. 1/6
A pile of evidence suggests the Atlantic overturning #AMOC (and its surface branch North Atlantic Current) has slowed. But some colleagues were sceptical, arguing the Norwegian Current and its deep return flow haven't slowed. 1/6
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Interesting n intriguing analysis of the US action in Venezuela pointing at the threat from China to the dominance of the $ as the world’s reserve currency, being the real reason‼️
#Venezuela #oil #trump
tinyurl.com/3s4mfw2u
#Venezuela #oil #trump
tinyurl.com/3s4mfw2u
The Real Reason Why the US Overthrew Venezuela
And why it all started in China in November 2025
tinyurl.com
January 5, 2026 at 12:21 PM
Interesting n intriguing analysis of the US action in Venezuela pointing at the threat from China to the dominance of the $ as the world’s reserve currency, being the real reason‼️
#Venezuela #oil #trump
tinyurl.com/3s4mfw2u
#Venezuela #oil #trump
tinyurl.com/3s4mfw2u
Reposted by Simon Horlick
From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...
November 30, 2025 at 6:34 PM
From Copernicus: This shows how the expected date for breaching 1.5C has been creeping ever closer in recent years. The orange date shows the baseline for the extrapolation; the red date shows when 1.5C is breached based on the trend...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
" #Climate scientists have already warned that extreme weather events ... will continue to worsen as temperatures increase," said Renard Siew, climate change advisor to the Centre for Governance and Political Studies in Malaysia.
"That is exactly what we have been seeing."
"That is exactly what we have been seeing."
Floods across Southeast Asia kill at least 250 as rescuers step up recovery operations
The death toll from floods across large swathes of Southeast Asia rose to at least 250 on Friday.
www.sbs.com.au
November 29, 2025 at 2:07 AM
" #Climate scientists have already warned that extreme weather events ... will continue to worsen as temperatures increase," said Renard Siew, climate change advisor to the Centre for Governance and Political Studies in Malaysia.
"That is exactly what we have been seeing."
"That is exactly what we have been seeing."
Reposted by Simon Horlick
It further shows a similar sea-level rise pattern after #AMOC shutdown as we found in Levermann et al. 2005, with the dynamic rise extending down into the South Atlantic. (That would be added to any global rise caused by climate warming.) 🧵
➡️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
➡️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
March 24, 2025 at 7:07 PM
It further shows a similar sea-level rise pattern after #AMOC shutdown as we found in Levermann et al. 2005, with the dynamic rise extending down into the South Atlantic. (That would be added to any global rise caused by climate warming.) 🧵
➡️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
➡️ agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10....
Can we please convince Wall St to fund solar powered AI data centres. By the time everyone realises AI sucks we just have an abundance of cheap clean energy?
November 21, 2025 at 4:39 AM
Can we please convince Wall St to fund solar powered AI data centres. By the time everyone realises AI sucks we just have an abundance of cheap clean energy?
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Antarctic science at COP30 🌍❄️
A panel of Australian scientists, including ACEAS Deputy Director @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW), today shared insights about abrupt changes unfolding across the #Antarctic environment at the #COP30 Cryosphere Pavilion.
Watch now: www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw...
A panel of Australian scientists, including ACEAS Deputy Director @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW), today shared insights about abrupt changes unfolding across the #Antarctic environment at the #COP30 Cryosphere Pavilion.
Watch now: www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw...
Policy Briefing: Emerging Evidence of Abrupt Changes in the Antarctic Environment
YouTube video by International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
www.youtube.com
November 18, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Antarctic science at COP30 🌍❄️
A panel of Australian scientists, including ACEAS Deputy Director @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW), today shared insights about abrupt changes unfolding across the #Antarctic environment at the #COP30 Cryosphere Pavilion.
Watch now: www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw...
A panel of Australian scientists, including ACEAS Deputy Director @profmattengland.bsky.social (UNSW), today shared insights about abrupt changes unfolding across the #Antarctic environment at the #COP30 Cryosphere Pavilion.
Watch now: www.youtube.com/live/YjYkKvw...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Time is up for 1.5°C. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is virtually exhausted: 170 GtCO2, equivalent to 4 years at the 2025 emissions levels.
November 13, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Time is up for 1.5°C. The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is virtually exhausted: 170 GtCO2, equivalent to 4 years at the 2025 emissions levels.
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Grateful to spend two days on the Klamath watching chinook, liberated by dam removal, return to streams from which they’d been precluded since the Titanic sank. Fish are everywhere, in numbers that stagger the mind & locations that biologists figured would take years to repopulate. Too beautiful.
November 5, 2025 at 9:17 PM
Grateful to spend two days on the Klamath watching chinook, liberated by dam removal, return to streams from which they’d been precluded since the Titanic sank. Fish are everywhere, in numbers that stagger the mind & locations that biologists figured would take years to repopulate. Too beautiful.
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%.
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
November 5, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions rise again in 2024, up 2.3%.
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
This is our collective progress, 10 years after the Paris Agreement.
www.unep.org/resources/em...
1/
If larger glaciers retreat at similar rates, it could have “catastrophic implications for sea level rise”
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
If larger glaciers retreat at similar rates, it could have “catastrophic implications for sea level rise”
Reposted by Simon Horlick
The defense team presses Lairmore on whether the sandwich really 'exploded.' They return to the photo of the sandwich and wrapper on the ground.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
November 4, 2025 at 4:37 PM
The defense team presses Lairmore on whether the sandwich really 'exploded.' They return to the photo of the sandwich and wrapper on the ground.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
"That sandwich hasn't exploded at all, has it?" defense asks.
"It looks like a little bit is coming out towards the bottom," Lairmore replies.
Reposted by Simon Horlick
"If basal melting in East #Antarctica is not properly accounted for, future sea level rise may be considerably underestimated... We urgently need to integrate these seasonal dynamics into #climate models to improve projections..." - Dr. @adele-morrison.bsky.social
Overlooked melting in East Antarctica could skew sea level rise projections
New research into how East Antarctica’s ice shelves melt reveals future global sea-level rise predictions could be significantly underestimated.
www.unsw.edu.au
October 31, 2025 at 1:16 AM
"If basal melting in East #Antarctica is not properly accounted for, future sea level rise may be considerably underestimated... We urgently need to integrate these seasonal dynamics into #climate models to improve projections..." - Dr. @adele-morrison.bsky.social
Reposted by Simon Horlick
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Causal mechanisms of subpolar gyre variability in CMIP6 models
Abstract. The subpolar gyre is at risk of crossing a tipping point under future climate change associated with the collapse of deep convection. As such, tipping can have significant climate impacts; i...
doi.org
October 28, 2025 at 12:27 PM
📢 New paper out!
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
🌊 We discuss how well mechanisms of variability in the subpolar gyre are represented in climate models, finding that models that do this best are also the models in which abrupt shifts are found 😬.
It's a technical story, so here's a simple overview 🧵
doi.org/10.5194/esd-...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
October 23, 2025 at 10:28 AM
New study by Falkena et al. shows that most climate models
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
don’t capture the established key mechanism that can destabilize the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Those models that get it predict abrupt subpolar gyre changes in coming decades 😳.
@swinda.bsky.social
esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
The planet is on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster, but we’ve run out of time to discuss that I’m afraid.
#bbcqt @zackpolanski.bsky.social
#bbcqt @zackpolanski.bsky.social
October 10, 2025 at 2:12 PM
The planet is on the brink of an irreversible climate disaster, but we’ve run out of time to discuss that I’m afraid.
#bbcqt @zackpolanski.bsky.social
#bbcqt @zackpolanski.bsky.social
Reposted by Simon Horlick
"The opportunity to preserve the WAIS in its present-day state has probably passed, and policymakers should be prepared for several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries."
Link to paper - doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Link to paper - doi.org/10.1038/s415...
doi.org
September 30, 2025 at 8:38 AM
"The opportunity to preserve the WAIS in its present-day state has probably passed, and policymakers should be prepared for several metres of sea-level rise over the coming centuries."
Link to paper - doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Link to paper - doi.org/10.1038/s415...
Reposted by Simon Horlick
Reposted by Simon Horlick
From my Tyndall talk: Structurally locked-in emissions dominate discourse; discretionary emissions – especially from the middle and upper classes – are ignored. Even now, questioning these lifestyles remains taboo, despite their hugely disproportionate impact and capacity for rapid change.
September 15, 2025 at 10:27 AM
From my Tyndall talk: Structurally locked-in emissions dominate discourse; discretionary emissions – especially from the middle and upper classes – are ignored. Even now, questioning these lifestyles remains taboo, despite their hugely disproportionate impact and capacity for rapid change.
Reposted by Simon Horlick
I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.
Our paper on that is out today.🧵
Our paper on that is out today.🧵
August 28, 2025 at 3:55 PM
I was shocked when I first saw these results from standard climate models used in IPCC reports: for high emissions, the Atlantic overturning circulation #AMOC shuts down in all 9 models that ran past 2100, and is well on the way to shutdown by 2100.
Our paper on that is out today.🧵
Our paper on that is out today.🧵