Pierre Friedlingstein
@pfriedling.bsky.social
8.2K followers 420 following 430 posts

Born at 321 ppm. Climate & Carbon Cycle Scientist. Prof @UniofExeter Directeur de Recherche @CNRS @GlobalCarbonProject

Pierre Friedlingstein is Professor and Chair in Mathematical Modelling of the Climate System at the University of Exeter, and Research Director at the Laboratoire de Météorologie dynamique (LMD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), France. .. more

Environmental science 58%
Geography 17%
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pfriedling.bsky.social
Really sorry for the poor quality of the figures below. They looked OK on my laptop

All figures are available here:
globalcarbonbudget.org/gcb-2024/
GCB Presentation in PDF and PPT format
plus country level emission figures
Also available here :
robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2024/

pfriedling.bsky.social
👏
doctorvive.bsky.social
The attack on @frediotto.bsky.social was seeded years ago by Roger Pielke Jr, who started arguing that this table from a recent @ipcc.bsky.social report proved that climate science cannot attribute extreme weather to climate change.

But Roger is of course lying. And we know this for 2 reasons.

🧵
CLIMATEWIRE
Climate critics try to discredit IPCC author for linking
disasters to global warming
By LESLEY CLARK, SARA SCHONHARDT, CHELSEA HARVEY | 10/09/2025
06:22 AM EDT Roger Pielke Jr. and oil industry supporters are attacking climate scientist Friederike Otto, whose
work has been used in lawsuits against polluters. Table 12.12 | Emergence of CIDs in different time periods, as assessed in this section. The colour contesponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white cells indicate where evidence is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overal bu confidence of an emerging signal.
doctorvive.bsky.social
The attack on @frediotto.bsky.social was seeded years ago by Roger Pielke Jr, who started arguing that this table from a recent @ipcc.bsky.social report proved that climate science cannot attribute extreme weather to climate change.

But Roger is of course lying. And we know this for 2 reasons.

🧵
CLIMATEWIRE
Climate critics try to discredit IPCC author for linking
disasters to global warming
By LESLEY CLARK, SARA SCHONHARDT, CHELSEA HARVEY | 10/09/2025
06:22 AM EDT Roger Pielke Jr. and oil industry supporters are attacking climate scientist Friederike Otto, whose
work has been used in lawsuits against polluters. Table 12.12 | Emergence of CIDs in different time periods, as assessed in this section. The colour contesponds to the confidence of the region with the highest confidence: white cells indicate where evidence is lacking or the signal is not present, leading to overal bu confidence of an emerging signal.

pfriedling.bsky.social
If you can’t refute the message, attack the messenger !
🤬

pfriedling.bsky.social
I hope he doesn’t mean his last sentence…

pfriedling.bsky.social
CCS can only reduces emissions, with CO₂ being captured before being released to the atmosphere and then stored underground.
To remove CO₂ from the atmosphere one needs CDR (such as DAC, afforestation, BECCS, …).

pfriedling.bsky.social
Light by a long way. Not that many people still use candles! 😉

pfriedling.bsky.social
A bit saddening that speaking the truth about science is now seen as potentially incompatible with being non partisan…

But you are making the right choice. Pretty much any one could be a provost but only Michael Mann can be Michael Mann 😉

pfriedling.bsky.social
Yep I fully agree Ben.
Given the current political landscape across the world, the idea of a responsible global governance on SRM is extremely naive.

pfriedling.bsky.social
En comparaison avec une marée noire suite au naufrage d’un pétrolier, y a pas photo 😉

pfriedling.bsky.social
How about speeding up the phase-out of fossil fuel?
Period.

pfriedling.bsky.social
That probably won’t ever happen in our life time, so CO₂ forcing will probably always dominate.

pfriedling.bsky.social
I agree with Michael here. Current CO₂ induced warming is about 50% larger than CH₄.
For current CH₄ emissions, atmospheric CO₂ should drop significantly below 400ppm. That won’t happen in the coming decades.

pfriedling.bsky.social
Il faut réduire les émissions de bcp plus que ça et de manière soutenue pendant des années pour voir un signal sur le CO₂ atmosphérique qui sort du bruit.

pfriedling.bsky.social
Du coup -6% d’émission anthropique, 35 au lieu de 37 GtCO₂ émis par l’homme induirait une baisse du taux de croissance du CO₂ d’environ 0.1ppm. Bien inférieur à la variabilité naturelle, donc indétectable.

pfriedling.bsky.social
La variabilité d’une année à l’autre est entièrement due aux puits biosphériques, et à leur réponse à la variabilité du climat : El Nino = puits plus faibles = taux de croissance plus élevé.
Rien à voir avec les émissions anthropiques qui varient très peu d’une année à l’autre

pfriedling.bsky.social
Vous avez entendu parlé de la variabilité interannuelle du climat et du cycle du carbone ?
Regardez ce graphe qui montre le taux de croissance annuel du CO₂.

gml.noaa.gov/webdata/ccgg...
gml.noaa.gov

pfriedling.bsky.social
C’est vous qui avez parlé de net zéro (=réduction de 100%)…
Net zéro est clairement pas trivial mais pas impossible.

Apres si on émet deux fois moins de CO₂ le réchauffement est réduit d’autant. Actuellement on est à 0.25C/décennie.
Passer à 0.1C serait un grand pas dans la bonne direction
cnrs.fr
CNRS @cnrs.fr · Sep 9
To rehabilitate the general view of women's contributions to the history of science, the CNRS is part of a commission that aims to inscribe the names of 72 female scientists on the Eiffel Tower. 🗼 #WomenInScience
Women scientists to be showcased on the Eiffel Tower soon
To rehabilitate the general view of women's contributions to the history of science, the CNRS is part of a commission that aims to inscribe
www.cnrs.fr

pfriedling.bsky.social
Quand au Covid, comme déjà répondu, les émissions anthropiques n’ont diminué que de 6% en 2020 (35 vs 37 milliards de tonnes de CO₂). Pas assez pour avoir un impact quelconque,en un an, sur le CO₂ atmosphérique ou la température globale.

pfriedling.bsky.social
Non le réchauffement s’arrête (plus on moins ~10%) quand les émissions de CO₂ s’arrêtent. Si les émissions anthropiques s’arrêtent, la concentration de CO₂ diminue de qui compense l’inertie thermique du système climatique.
Il y a pas mal de papiers scientifiques qui ont montré ca depuis 10-15 ans.

pfriedling.bsky.social
Globalement le réchauffement s’arrête quand les émissions s’arrêtent.
Mais en effet tant qu’on continue à émettre des gaz à effet de serre (même en quantité décroissante), la température continuera à augmenter.
Mais limiter le réchauffement sous 2C est encore possible.
hc-climat.bsky.social
🌍 Un engagement ambitieux de l’Europe pour 2040 est indispensable pour maintenir vivants les objectifs de l’Accord de Paris.
La position de la France fait peser un risque important sur l’adoption par l'UE d’objectifs à la mesure du défi climatique.
➡️ www.hautconseilclimat.fr/actualites/o...
Objectif climatique européen 2040 et COP 30 : une proposition de la France menace l’Accord de Paris — Haut Conseil pour le Climat
Paris, le 5 septembre 2025 – Au moment des négociations européennes sur les objectifs climatiques de l’Union européenne pour la […]
www.hautconseilclimat.fr

pfriedling.bsky.social
Je confirme, Fressoz est un hurluberlu!

pfriedling.bsky.social
It was a tongue in cheek comment. Not suggesting that reach 2.2 then reverse is the best strategy 😉

pfriedling.bsky.social
😀. Indeed. Probably not going to work for sea level rise (or many other largely irreversible changes) …

Reposted by Richard Betts

pfriedling.bsky.social
A 0.7°C cooling at best from all geological carbon storage.
So could 2.2°C be seen as the maximum allowed overshoot temperature ? 🤓
joerirogelj.bsky.social
NEW STUDY: How much CO2 can we safely store in geological formations?

In a new @nature.com study, we cross-check established academic and industry estimates with various risk factors.

We find a prudent geological CO2 storage limit that is about 10x smaller. /1