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Dan O'Hara

@skeuomorphology.bsky.social

920 followers 460 following 750 posts

Runs the UK Covid PCR positivity map: https://jamestindall.info/skeuomorphology/ladb_covid/index.html Otherwise: literary history | philosophy of tech | EXTREME METAPHORS: Interviews with JG Ballard http://amazon.co.uk/dp/B007QOXKHI | www.danohara.co.uk

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · May 12

I spoke to @emanuelmaiberg.bsky.social at @404media.bsky.social about Coca-Cola's new AI ad that can't tell the difference between me and J. G. Ballard

www.404media.co/ai-powered-c...

AI-Powered Coca-Cola Ad Celebrating Authors Gets Basic Facts Wrong

A new Coke ad proudly features a quote from a J.G. Ballard book, only he didn’t write the words and it’s not his book.

www.404media.co

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Reposted by Dan O'Hara

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

The PCR positivity map is out, and UKHSA have finally deigned to describe covid activity as "medium".

UKHSA national positivity is 13.23%.

Adjusted for non-reporting we make it 15.27%.

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

1/

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 11h

HI Lizzie,

I'm afraid I don't. I know this one is still growing here and I can't see signs of a downturn yet.

Most of Europe looks similar, but we're a bit extreme in our restricted policy, and we're behind the curve.

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

Scotland haven't released local positivity data today - I'll add it as soon as I get it.

On the other hand, Scottish wastewater data has been updated after going missing for a couple of weeks - if you're not sure how to check a local area, ask me.

scotland.shinyapps.io/phs-respirat...

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COVID-19 & Respiratory Surveillance

scotland.shinyapps.io

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

Looking at the hospital stats, it's evident that on Tyneside, Teesside, in Durham and Cumbria and Northumbria they've been battling to keep a lid on levels since late August.

They don't seem to be winning yet.

7/8

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

The whole north is yoyoing one way or the other, but most areas are well above average and the general tendency is up.

Those alarming stats from Sheffield last week have been corrected, but I can see why they occurred, as patients jumped from 50 to 99 over 2 weeks.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

UKHSA note the Midlands are now being hit particularly.

Maybe they've been checking the map?

From Shropshire to Norfolk levels are still climbing. I'm highlighting Shrewsbury & Telford: they reintroduced masks this week.

Nottingham and Derby both had a rapid doubling.

5/8

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

Bristol and Swindon had seen a doubling of patients in the last week of September, since when positivity has continued to climb.

I expect they're starting to look like their more northerly neighbours round about now.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

In what follows, I'm using the hospital stats as well as the map.

Where's getting hit the hardest?

In the south, Devon has seen a rebound, with patients tripling over the last 2 weeks of September. Other areas are steadier.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

Hospital stats have been updated to the end of September - so, ten days ago.

As with positivity, there are many hospitals that aren't reporting.

One indicative figure is hospital staff off sick with covid: 3-400 most of the year, but climbed to nearly 700 over September.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 14h

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 1d

Shrewsbury & Telford

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 2d

Shrewbury & Telford NHS Trust reintroducing masks as of today.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 3d

The whole schedule is geared around flu, and for that it makes sense (flu will likely peak in late Dec/early Jan).

But for covid? A lot of trouble could be averted if the timing of vaccines were informed by the data.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 3d

NOIDs data up to yesterday.

It's the most current data we get, good for indicating the trend but poor for tracking levels.

When Thursday's map comes out, levels will certainly be higher than last autumn's wave.

Feels like the limited NHS vaccines are starting a bit late.

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Reposted by Dan O'Hara

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

The PCR positivity map is out, and it's evident that everywhere is seeing a significant surge.

UKHSA positivity has risen to 11.83%.

Adjusted for non-reporting areas, we make that 13.77%.

jamestindall.info/skeuomorphol...

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

Indeed.

I've been hunting for some evidence that it might be an error, but there's no good reason to suspect it is, and some evidence that it isn't, insofar as the data can tell us such things.

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

Quite right, David! Thank you - remiss of me not to mention it.

Reposted by Dan O'Hara

David Allsopp @doublehelix.bsky.social · 7d

bsky.app/profile/doub...

David Allsopp @doublehelix.bsky.social · 20d

If you're not eligible on the NHS (and most of us aren't 🙄), private autumn COVID vaccinations are now available in the UK, if you can find a pharmacy that stocks it, and can afford it 🙄

I was able to get the Comirnaty LP.8.1 (Pfizer/BioNTech) vaccine today.

pharmadoctor.co.uk/patient/serv...

Pharmadoctor, providing clinical services at your local pharmacy

The UK's leading provider of private pharmacy based clinical services. Clinical services include all vaccinations (travel health and seasonal vaccines), as well as minor ailment and test 'n' treat ser...

pharmadoctor.co.uk

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

I haven't seen anything quite like that Sheffield spike before. Even Tyneside & Teesside have been yoyoing up & down to increasing levels so far.

Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

We're still working on including Scotland on the map - it's quite challenging technically, I'm afraid.

In lieu of the map, here's positivity by area for this week.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

This wave is set to be worse than last autumn's.

It may be already, as this data covers up to last Friday.

I do not like what I see in Sheffield and elsewhere.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think we need sequencing urgently.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

NHS vaccine booking is now open, for those who are eligible.

If you are, go get 'em.

And wear an FFP mask to do so.

www.nhs.uk/vaccinations...

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COVID-19 vaccine

NHS information about the COVID-19 vaccine, including what the vaccine helps protect against, who should have it and when, how to get it and side effects.

www.nhs.uk

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

Tyneside seems to be level-ish, but Teeside is rocketing even further from an already high level.

The same is true in Cumbria.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

The map gets darker the further north you go.

Sheffield does a lot of testing.

Look at their graph.

I'd normally be sceptical of such data, but surrounding areas are all v high and climbing nearly as sharply.

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Dan O'Hara @skeuomorphology.bsky.social · 7d

We're starting to see areas in the Midlands increase the amount of testing they're doing again.

Herefordshire, Worcestershire (and Rutland on few but not meaninglessly few tests) look the worst hit; Dudley and Northampton not far behind.

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