Thorsteinn Kristinsson
@stennikr.bsky.social
Footloose academic. Interested in rising powers, relational IR, Liberal International Order, Asian regionalism, small state studies.
📍Taipei, Lund, Reykjavik
Institute of International Affairs, University of Iceland
https://ams.hi.is/en/people/294/
📍Taipei, Lund, Reykjavik
Institute of International Affairs, University of Iceland
https://ams.hi.is/en/people/294/
Pinned
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
buff.ly
My latest from @thediplomat.com
This comes as Taiwan makes a huge diplomatic push into Europe. I wonder if Taiwan's leaders realise just how badly this goes down with large parts of the European and global publics.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
November 13, 2025 at 11:41 AM
This comes as Taiwan makes a huge diplomatic push into Europe. I wonder if Taiwan's leaders realise just how badly this goes down with large parts of the European and global publics.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Let’s rephrase the question.
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
November 6, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Let’s rephrase the question.
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
I’ve wondered the same thing about Icelandic conservatives.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
September 18, 2025 at 2:27 AM
I’ve wondered the same thing about Icelandic conservatives.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
My latest from @thediplomat.com
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
buff.ly
May 17, 2025 at 8:46 AM
My latest from @thediplomat.com
A new piece by me in @thediplomat.com.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
thediplomat.com
May 16, 2025 at 7:08 AM
A new piece by me in @thediplomat.com.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
May 9, 2025 at 2:58 PM
How it started: How it’s going:
April 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
How it started: How it’s going:
Ég hélt í augnablik að þessi fyrirsögn sneri að utanríkisstefnu Íslands.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
April 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Ég hélt í augnablik að þessi fyrirsögn sneri að utanríkisstefnu Íslands.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 9, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
US two days ago:
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
Bessent now talking about a group approach to China. Not sure whether to laugh or cry
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Bessent Sees a Deal With Allies, Then Group Approach on China
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he envisions reaching trade agreements with US allies that would then lay the ground for a collective approach toward Beijing to address what he described as Chin...
www.bloomberg.com
April 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
US two days ago:
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
two days ago, the Brits were padding themselves on the back for getting "better" tariff treatment than the EU.
Trade war makes improved UK-EU relations ‘imperative’, says Reeves
https://www.ft.com/content/f51a368a-ff9a-46d8-9ab5-58aa3ca7ecc4
https://www.ft.com/content/f51a368a-ff9a-46d8-9ab5-58aa3ca7ecc4
Trade war makes improved UK-EU relations ‘imperative’, says Reeves
Britain could exploit the chaos unleashed by Donald Trump, chancellor tells FT
www.ft.com
April 9, 2025 at 11:04 AM
two days ago, the Brits were padding themselves on the back for getting "better" tariff treatment than the EU.
For Taiwan, it's always nice to see its status as a country reinforced by being labelled as such on a prominent list with other countries.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
April 3, 2025 at 8:29 AM
For Taiwan, it's always nice to see its status as a country reinforced by being labelled as such on a prominent list with other countries.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Maybe Trump has some positive climate change policies after all.
Let’s presume Trump is able to magically force every car manufacturer to build every part of every car in the United States
With unions imposing their minimum wage and benefits requirements, exactly how much more expensive would that car be than it is today
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
More?
With unions imposing their minimum wage and benefits requirements, exactly how much more expensive would that car be than it is today
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
More?
March 30, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Maybe Trump has some positive climate change policies after all.
My favourite part is that Trump believes the US has a “champagne business”.
March 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
My favourite part is that Trump believes the US has a “champagne business”.
Ég skrifaði smá pistil um stöðu Íslands í alþjóðakerfinu í ljósi þeirrar upplausnar sem nú ríkir í vestrænu samstarfi.
---
I wrote a piece on Iceland's international position and future prospects in light of the crisis in the transatlantic alliance.
---
I wrote a piece on Iceland's international position and future prospects in light of the crisis in the transatlantic alliance.
Staða Íslands og niðurbrot vestrænnar samvinnu - Vísir
Vestræn samvinna er í dag í sinni dýpstu krísu frá lokum síðari heimsstyrjaldar. Vandamálin eiga sér nokkra forsögu. Engu að síður eru þær breytingar sem hafa átt sér stað síðustu vikur svo hraðar og ...
www.visir.is
March 4, 2025 at 11:32 AM
Ég skrifaði smá pistil um stöðu Íslands í alþjóðakerfinu í ljósi þeirrar upplausnar sem nú ríkir í vestrænu samstarfi.
---
I wrote a piece on Iceland's international position and future prospects in light of the crisis in the transatlantic alliance.
---
I wrote a piece on Iceland's international position and future prospects in light of the crisis in the transatlantic alliance.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Trump loves your cynical takes. But if you think existing norms are nothing but window dressing, then you don't understand why he is so eager to be rid of them.
February 19, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Trump loves your cynical takes. But if you think existing norms are nothing but window dressing, then you don't understand why he is so eager to be rid of them.
Svo það sé tekið fram, þá er þetta EKKI ég.
Það vill bara svo leiðinlega til að þessi gæi er alnafni minn.
bsky.app/profile/ruvf...
Það vill bara svo leiðinlega til að þessi gæi er alnafni minn.
bsky.app/profile/ruvf...
Stjórnvöld hafa opnað fyrir tillögur frá almenningi um hagræðingu í ríkisrestri í gegnum samráðsgátt. Nú eru komnar rúmlega 200 tillögur. Lumar þú á góðum sparnaðarráðum?
January 3, 2025 at 8:43 PM
Svo það sé tekið fram, þá er þetta EKKI ég.
Það vill bara svo leiðinlega til að þessi gæi er alnafni minn.
bsky.app/profile/ruvf...
Það vill bara svo leiðinlega til að þessi gæi er alnafni minn.
bsky.app/profile/ruvf...
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Journalists: you can call it "Taiwan." Chinese Taipei is just a name cooked up to satisfy China in international competitions. The people are Taiwanese.
August 2, 2024 at 1:32 PM
Journalists: you can call it "Taiwan." Chinese Taipei is just a name cooked up to satisfy China in international competitions. The people are Taiwanese.
Interesting. In that case, I guess Singapore wouldn’t object to other ASEAN countries negotiating similar “exclusivity deals” concerning international companies and their headquarters.
bsky.app/profile/fina...
bsky.app/profile/fina...
bsky.app
March 5, 2024 at 11:04 AM
Interesting. In that case, I guess Singapore wouldn’t object to other ASEAN countries negotiating similar “exclusivity deals” concerning international companies and their headquarters.
bsky.app/profile/fina...
bsky.app/profile/fina...
One has to love the optics here.
They thought capitalism would change China. Instead, we have Western consultancies drafting the CCP’s Five-Year Plans.
They thought capitalism would change China. Instead, we have Western consultancies drafting the CCP’s Five-Year Plans.
McKinsey-led think-tank advised China on policy that fed US tensions
Urban China Initiative counselled Beijing on cutting-edge technologies in preparation of Five-Year Plan
on.ft.com
February 23, 2024 at 6:03 AM
One has to love the optics here.
They thought capitalism would change China. Instead, we have Western consultancies drafting the CCP’s Five-Year Plans.
They thought capitalism would change China. Instead, we have Western consultancies drafting the CCP’s Five-Year Plans.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
February 7, 2024 at 6:42 PM
Happy election day Taiwan! 🇹🇼
January 13, 2024 at 2:09 AM
Happy election day Taiwan! 🇹🇼
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
the history of Iceland in a nutshell
December 19, 2023 at 7:56 AM
the history of Iceland in a nutshell
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Public art makes cities better and more artists should be involved in urban infrastructure design, which is a roundabout way of saying that we need more Parking Squids for bicycles 🦑 seattlearts.emuseum.com/objects/3898...
December 12, 2023 at 12:54 PM
Public art makes cities better and more artists should be involved in urban infrastructure design, which is a roundabout way of saying that we need more Parking Squids for bicycles 🦑 seattlearts.emuseum.com/objects/3898...