Stephen
@stephent.bsky.social
mere speculative musings. are you feeling lucky?
Pinned
Stephen
@stephent.bsky.social
· Dec 24
That’s a wrap. Pleased to release my comprehensive review of 2024
No paywall
No paywall
Econ consensus is that the US recession question is basically a coin flip now. A lot of the people who like attaching probabilities to these sorts of things are in the 40-60% range. Markets currently taking the under
April 28, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Econ consensus is that the US recession question is basically a coin flip now. A lot of the people who like attaching probabilities to these sorts of things are in the 40-60% range. Markets currently taking the under
“Overall currency hedging by foreign investors in US stocks stands at 23%, well below the near 50% level seen in 2020, State Street Corp.’s custodial data shows”
Investors outside the US are taking a one-two punch from stock and dollar losses — and rushing into hedges for protection
Unhedged and Burned, Stock Investors Brace for More Dollar Pain
Traders had increasingly given up on currency hedges. Now, that’s taking a toll.
bloom.bg
April 27, 2025 at 9:10 PM
“Overall currency hedging by foreign investors in US stocks stands at 23%, well below the near 50% level seen in 2020, State Street Corp.’s custodial data shows”
Tariffs dominating headlines, but fiscal side getting v interesting. Extending TCJA is table stakes, but further tax cuts for working class were a big part of his campaign. Market is skeptical on these with some expecting fiscal tightening. But DOGE a dud, defense budget looking higher,
April 27, 2025 at 2:00 PM
Tariffs dominating headlines, but fiscal side getting v interesting. Extending TCJA is table stakes, but further tax cuts for working class were a big part of his campaign. Market is skeptical on these with some expecting fiscal tightening. But DOGE a dud, defense budget looking higher,
The challenge here is where will the growth impulse come from. Many expected recession in 2022, but a lot of pandemic savings and had roaring 20s in re-opening/services. Hard to see people pay $1,000 for a Taylor Swift ticket in this economy
April 27, 2025 at 10:20 AM
The challenge here is where will the growth impulse come from. Many expected recession in 2022, but a lot of pandemic savings and had roaring 20s in re-opening/services. Hard to see people pay $1,000 for a Taylor Swift ticket in this economy
Interesting discussion on “macro v models” on JPM at any rate podcast. Contrasting medium term macro theme of shorting the dollar and shorter term FX models seeing euro as stretched on most metrics
April 27, 2025 at 8:10 AM
Interesting discussion on “macro v models” on JPM at any rate podcast. Contrasting medium term macro theme of shorting the dollar and shorter term FX models seeing euro as stretched on most metrics
I’ve been crushing podcasts recently. Some such good content out there. A golden age if you will
April 27, 2025 at 7:52 AM
I’ve been crushing podcasts recently. Some such good content out there. A golden age if you will
Understanding the whole tariff situation is a lot of work, easier just to watch the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator… which I learned about this morning
April 27, 2025 at 7:06 AM
Understanding the whole tariff situation is a lot of work, easier just to watch the Zweig Breadth Thrust Indicator… which I learned about this morning
“An operator who says things that sound smart unless you pay attention” - Krugman on Kevin Warsh 😂
April 26, 2025 at 8:24 PM
“An operator who says things that sound smart unless you pay attention” - Krugman on Kevin Warsh 😂
Wow what an iconic photo. Leaders of the free world speaking with the President of the United States
April 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
Wow what an iconic photo. Leaders of the free world speaking with the President of the United States
“While my bigger picture view remains that we are at the front edge of a regime change towards a weaker USD… EURUSD looks tired for now. Everything and everyone looks tired”
www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/magazin...
www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/magazin...
Magazine Trifecta
It goes against my core view, but I must admit The Economist is screaming BUY AMERICA
www.spectramarkets.com
April 26, 2025 at 8:29 AM
“While my bigger picture view remains that we are at the front edge of a regime change towards a weaker USD… EURUSD looks tired for now. Everything and everyone looks tired”
www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/magazin...
www.spectramarkets.com/amfx/magazin...
Great read, although I’m slightly disappointed it doesn’t include the phrase “yippee-ki-yay”. Whether the sell off was swap/basis trades or foreign investors selling is often referred to binary terms, but this is a good reminder that there is a feedback loop as the vol impacts sharpe for investors
The Treasury market has gotten hooked on leveraged hedge fund trades. That means that the “yippy” behaviour we saw earlier this month is probably going to become more common. on.ft.com/3RAflHR
April 25, 2025 at 7:58 AM
Great read, although I’m slightly disappointed it doesn’t include the phrase “yippee-ki-yay”. Whether the sell off was swap/basis trades or foreign investors selling is often referred to binary terms, but this is a good reminder that there is a feedback loop as the vol impacts sharpe for investors
This is great and covers two of my favourite themes: risk cycles and regime changes. The Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions was a regime change for gold/real yields. This risk cycle, foreign investors bought a lot of US assets… and the tariff driven unwind may mean a USD regime shift
Did an interview yesterday with @pipczar.bsky.social about the the recent issues that have been raised about the role of the dollar and treasuries, and about what’s really driving gold and what the price action is saying about its short-term prospects.
tradersummit.net/youve-got-th...
tradersummit.net/youve-got-th...
You've Got the Dollar/Stocks/Bonds Correlation Wrong!
You've Got the Dollar/Stocks/Bonds Correlation Wrong! - Mark Dow of Behavioural Macro gives his views on a wide range of markets.
tradersummit.net
April 24, 2025 at 8:08 PM
This is great and covers two of my favourite themes: risk cycles and regime changes. The Russia-Ukraine war and sanctions was a regime change for gold/real yields. This risk cycle, foreign investors bought a lot of US assets… and the tariff driven unwind may mean a USD regime shift
👀
The dollar has further to fall - strong oped here from Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius www.ft.com/content/976e...
April 24, 2025 at 7:10 AM
👀
Glib and spineless Bessent appears to have given way to emboldened voice of reason Bessent. Market stress an obvious catalyst and hopefully now more of a moderating force, as many hoped
April 23, 2025 at 7:48 PM
Glib and spineless Bessent appears to have given way to emboldened voice of reason Bessent. Market stress an obvious catalyst and hopefully now more of a moderating force, as many hoped
“Bessent criticized Musk for overpromising and under-delivering budget cuts with DOGE. Musk clapped back by calling Bessent a "Soros agent" and accusing him of having run "a failed hedge fund”
Spicy 🌶️
Spicy 🌶️
“It was two billionaire, middle-aged men thinking it was WWE in the hall of the West Wing," one witness said ..
“.. the president saw it, and then they carried it down the hall, and that's when they did it again ..”
“.. It was loud. And I mean, loud."
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/04/23/m...
“.. the president saw it, and then they carried it down the hall, and that's when they did it again ..”
“.. It was loud. And I mean, loud."
@axios.com
www.axios.com/2025/04/23/m...
April 23, 2025 at 6:32 PM
“Bessent criticized Musk for overpromising and under-delivering budget cuts with DOGE. Musk clapped back by calling Bessent a "Soros agent" and accusing him of having run "a failed hedge fund”
Spicy 🌶️
Spicy 🌶️
Are you not entertained…
April 23, 2025 at 7:04 AM
Are you not entertained…
markets provided the guardrails, but it wasn’t so much about the strike price of the policy put, it was the breakdown in cross asset correlations
April 23, 2025 at 6:21 AM
markets provided the guardrails, but it wasn’t so much about the strike price of the policy put, it was the breakdown in cross asset correlations
6.30am and already read four pieces on the end of US exceptionalism: Giles, timiraos, authers, and Cullen Roche. When a theme goes viral…
April 22, 2025 at 5:39 AM
6.30am and already read four pieces on the end of US exceptionalism: Giles, timiraos, authers, and Cullen Roche. When a theme goes viral…
Given this market sell off, is Fox News ramping up the pressure for policy reversals or calling for the market to be closed for the day?
Let’s find out…
Let’s find out…
April 21, 2025 at 6:11 PM
Given this market sell off, is Fox News ramping up the pressure for policy reversals or calling for the market to be closed for the day?
Let’s find out…
Let’s find out…
Looking forward to testing the El-erian thesis that bonds didn’t react to Trump’s Powell “termination” post because the market recognises Powell has been late and is a poor communicator
April 21, 2025 at 7:08 AM
Looking forward to testing the El-erian thesis that bonds didn’t react to Trump’s Powell “termination” post because the market recognises Powell has been late and is a poor communicator
One day, shorting gold because your favourite model, technical indicator, or sentiment survey said so will be a profitable trade. In the meantime it’s fighting a factor identified by Blanchflower as: the economics of going outside and walking around
April 21, 2025 at 6:52 AM
One day, shorting gold because your favourite model, technical indicator, or sentiment survey said so will be a profitable trade. In the meantime it’s fighting a factor identified by Blanchflower as: the economics of going outside and walking around
“There have been few, if any, more turbulent weeks in the markets during the whole of my professional life”
Quite a statement and punchy piece from veteran Roger bootle
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Quite a statement and punchy piece from veteran Roger bootle
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Trump’s chaos has shattered confidence in America
The US president is unwittingly hastening the end of the dollar as the world’s only significant reserve currency
www.telegraph.co.uk
April 20, 2025 at 7:09 PM
“There have been few, if any, more turbulent weeks in the markets during the whole of my professional life”
Quite a statement and punchy piece from veteran Roger bootle
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Quite a statement and punchy piece from veteran Roger bootle
www.telegraph.co.uk/business/202...
Interesting to hear that many non-markets guests on mainstream cable news have been talking about the erosion of the dollar’s safe haven status in markets
April 19, 2025 at 6:51 PM
Interesting to hear that many non-markets guests on mainstream cable news have been talking about the erosion of the dollar’s safe haven status in markets
“There is now a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession (“VTRR”)” -Torsten Slok
April 19, 2025 at 2:57 PM
“There is now a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession (“VTRR”)” -Torsten Slok
“When these big institutions like pension funds and insurance companies move, it often takes many months before they really implement the shift…It’s not like a hedge fund where they make a decision and a couple of hours later, they have shifted”
www.barrons.com/articles/for...
www.barrons.com/articles/for...
A Global Rebalancing Is Well Underway as Investors Sell Off U.S. Bonds
New data detail the exodus from some U.S. assets.
www.barrons.com
April 18, 2025 at 9:21 PM
“When these big institutions like pension funds and insurance companies move, it often takes many months before they really implement the shift…It’s not like a hedge fund where they make a decision and a couple of hours later, they have shifted”
www.barrons.com/articles/for...
www.barrons.com/articles/for...