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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · 15d

Wondering if anyone on this site wants to comment on this from @ctulocal1.bsky.social

Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · Sep 10

The pretty draft is now online.

Link to paper (free): www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/epdf/10....

Our replication package starts from the raw data and we put real work into making it readable & setting it up so people could poke at it, so please do explore it: dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtm...

The social sciences face a replicability crisis. A key determinant of replication success is statistical power. We assess the
power of political science research by collating over 16,000 hypothesis tests from about 2,000 articles in 46 areas of the
discipline. Under generous assumptions, we show that quantitative research in political science is greatly underpow-
ered: the median analysis has about 10% power, and only about 1 in 10 tests have at least 80% power to detect the
consensus effects reported in the literature. We also find substantial heterogeneity in tests across research areas, with
some being characterized by high power but most having very low power. To contextualize our findings, we survey
political methodologists to assess their expectations about power levels. Most methodologists greatly overestimate the
statistical power of political science research.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Sep 4

Suggestion for authors: go back to forecasters now and ask them if they’d like to update their 2030 forecasts.

Forecasting Research Institute @research-fri.bsky.social · Sep 2

The International Mathematical Olympiad results were even more surprising.

AI systems achieved gold-level performance at the IMO in July 2025.

Superforecasters assigned this outcome just a 2.3% probability. Domain experts put it at 8.6%.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Sep 2

Charts comparing BlueSky to X would be appreciated. Almost all comparisons are of interest to me including the obvious big two categories:
- user demographics
- post topics

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Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Prof Dynarski @dynarski.bsky.social · Aug 2

Statement from the largest economics association about the BLS firing

As context: AEA approximately never makes such public statements

This is a big deal

August 1, 2025
AMERICAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION
Committee on Economic Statistics and Committee on Government Relations

Statement from the American Economic Association on the
Dismissal of the BLS Commissioner

Leaders of the American Economic Association express their grave concern over the dismissal of the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier today.
The independence of the federal statistical agencies is essential to the proper functioning of a modern economy. Accurate, timely, and impartial statistics are the foundation upon which households, businesses, and policymakers make critical decisions. Undermining the independence or credibility of these agencies threatens the integrity of the information that markets, institutions, and the public rely on every day.
Measuring the vast and dynamic U.S. economy in real time is inherently challenging. It is standard practice for statistical estimates to be revised as more complete and higher-quality data become available. These revisions reflect the commitment of statistical agencies to accuracy, transparency, and methodological rigor-not failure or bias.
The BLS has long had a well-deserved reputation for professional excellence and nonpartisan integrity.
Safeguarding this tradition is vital for the continued health of the U.S. economy and public trust in our institutions.
We call upon elected officials to respect and preserve the independence of the nation's statistical infrastructure.

Lawrence Katz
President, American Economic Association
Katharine Abraham
President-Elect, American Economic Association
Karen Dynan
Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Economic Statistics
Kenneth Troske
Chair, American Economic Association Committee on Government Relations

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Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Ludger Woessmann @woessmann.bsky.social · Jul 7

❓Why do the Nordics & Dutch speak English so much better than the Germans, Italians & French?

➡️ New Working Paper:

Out-of-School Learning: Subtitling vs. Dubbing and the Acquisition of Foreign-Language Skills
w/ F. Baumeister & E. Hanushek

www.nber.org/papers/w33984

A 🧵 1/12

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 15

Realistically, either A.I. solves this for posters or it doesn’t get solved. Almost nobody gonna put effort into it.

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 15

I greatly respect your work but I disagree.

When normal people disagree with the scientific consensus it’s mostly because they don’t care much about the topic, or worse, because they don’t trust scientists.

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 15

Matt, I have to disagree with the gist of this.

The problem of academics overclaiming and overgeneralizing from their work is serious and confuses the public (and even other academics).

Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · Jul 14

NYC experimented with new window heat pump models in some public housing units. in winter, "The window unit-heated apartments used a whopping 87% less energy than the rest of the building’s steam-heated apartments did, cutting energy costs per household in half."

heatmap.news/sustainabili...

Window Heat Pumps Could Change the Game

A new report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy has some exciting data for anyone attempting to retrofit a multifamily building.

heatmap.news

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 14

Preventing fraud is best but bigger penalties would help too. At a certain level it should be literally criminal.

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 14

Happy Fête de la Fédération to those who celebrate! @franceculture.fr

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 7

See link to paper in this thread x.com/alexwcohen/s...

Alex Cohen on X: "Do effect sizes/standard errors from econ studies predict future results? This paper finds they often don’t (CIs don’t contain future results) unless we allow for real diffs across studies (ie, low external validity). Requires assumptions but cool mix of empirical approaches. https://t.co/JURGQLCOty" / X

Do effect sizes/standard errors from econ studies predict future results? This paper finds they often don’t (CIs don’t contain future results) unless we allow for real diffs across studies (ie, low external validity). Requires assumptions but cool mix of empirical approaches. https://t.co/JURGQLCOty

x.com

Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 7

Even social scientists that "get it" mostly abide by a norm against forecasting.

Including subjective probabilistic forecasts in serious scholarship might receive pushback from reviewers or editors even though it would help readers interpret research implications.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 7

Most social scientists have never reflected on the epistemic virtues of forecasting.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 6

I wonder what you mean by “we” and “allowed” … there was a resistance, both obvious and invisible. And those resisting were themselves diverse and sometimes in sharp disagreement about strategy.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jul 6

Better late than never!

Gizmodo @gizmodo.com · Jul 5

Joe Rogan's Trump endorsement is unraveling. He's furious over ICE raids targeting gardeners and students. He's asking if we're sliding into fascism. https://gizmodo.com/joe-rogan-feels-trump-betrayed-him-on-immigration-2000624426

Joe Rogan Feels Trump Betrayed Him on Immigration

The podcast king, once a prominent supporter of Donald Trump, denounced the president’s aggressive deportation tactics on his wildly popular podcast.

gizmodo.com

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Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Max Roser @maxroser.bsky.social · Jun 26

My chart on the history of three infectious diseases — smallpox, polio, and measles — before and after a vaccine was available.

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jun 20

I’d be grateful if you or anyone reading has suggestions for any sociologists of science who did interesting work on the pandemic and it’s science.

Anyone other than Zeynep that is!

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jun 20

NYC mayor race needs conditional prediction markets:

If [Mamdani / Cuomo] wins,
what results in 2026-2027?
- new housing starts
- population growth
- high net worth population change
- rent change
- student test scores
- crime
- police budget

@manifoldmarkets.bsky.social @metaculus.bsky.social

Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Alexander Berger @albrgr.bsky.social · Jun 15

Great New Yorker story on the development of a new non-opioid painkiller www.newyorker.com/magazine/20...

The Radical Development of an Entirely New Painkiller

The opioid crisis has made it even more urgent to come up with novel approaches to treating suffering. Finally there’s something effective.

www.newyorker.com

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Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Adam Bonin @adambonin.bsky.social · Jun 15

Should we deport people who have lived here for many years without committing any crimes? 61% no, 24% yes.

Should we should deport people as quickly as possible even if it means more mistakes, or do our best to make no mistakes even if it takes longer?

Quickly: 19%
Minimize mistakes: 74%

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jun 11

Learn about Canada’s movement to delay kids’ smartphone adoption #UnpluggedCanada @alexmunter.bsky.social www.cbc.ca/listen/live-...

www.cbc.ca

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Reposted by Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸

Alex Munter @alexmunter.bsky.social · Mar 21

BREAKING: Overwhelming support for letting doctors and nurses move freely around the country to care for Canadians:
angusreid.org/interprovinc...
#CDNpoli #CDNhealth

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Mike Bishop 🇨🇦🇺🇸 @thatmikebishop.bsky.social · Jun 10

I agree with @kateadamala.bsky.social
Don’t make mirror life.

Great conversation with @nathanlabenz.bsky.social

pca.st/episode/46dea5…

https://pca.st/episode/46dea5…

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