Thomas Aubrey
@thomasaubreycca.bsky.social
Credit risk, asset allocation, infrastructure, productivity, liberalism. @lse-ei.bsky.social @imperialcollegeldn (CSEP), @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk Author & founder @ http://creditcapitaladvisory.com 歐 睿
Pension funds start to increase exposure to private credit. What could possibly go wrong! exelerating.com/en/uk-market...
West Yorkshire Pension Fund Private Credit Allocation more than Doubled During Fiscal Year 2025
West Yorkshire Pension Fund (WYPF) recently published its ‘REPORT AND ACCOUNTS For the year ended 31 March 2025’, detailing its financial performance, investment strategy, and administrative activitie...
exelerating.com
November 26, 2025 at 7:11 AM
Pension funds start to increase exposure to private credit. What could possibly go wrong! exelerating.com/en/uk-market...
My latest @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk UK productivity note www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/missing... highlights considerable growth challenges for Government. Between Q2 2019 -Q2 2025 private sector productivity growth was stagnant. Only 45% of the private sector had a +ve growth contribution vs 50%
Missing from the UK Industrial Strategy: the customers - Bennett School of Public Policy
As private sector productivity continues to stagnate, the UK government’s industrial strategy has the potential to help drive growth in key high value-added sectors. However, the lack of focus on cust...
www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk
November 25, 2025 at 12:27 PM
My latest @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk UK productivity note www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/missing... highlights considerable growth challenges for Government. Between Q2 2019 -Q2 2025 private sector productivity growth was stagnant. Only 45% of the private sector had a +ve growth contribution vs 50%
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
Metro mayors have strengthened leadership and investment in England’s big cities.
Glasgow should have the same opportunity through a model built for transparency and long-term decision-making.
Read the blog 👇
buff.ly/6f9pg60
Glasgow should have the same opportunity through a model built for transparency and long-term decision-making.
Read the blog 👇
buff.ly/6f9pg60
November 25, 2025 at 10:52 AM
Metro mayors have strengthened leadership and investment in England’s big cities.
Glasgow should have the same opportunity through a model built for transparency and long-term decision-making.
Read the blog 👇
buff.ly/6f9pg60
Glasgow should have the same opportunity through a model built for transparency and long-term decision-making.
Read the blog 👇
buff.ly/6f9pg60
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
Productivity figures offer little reassurance for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget tmrw, writes @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social
Private-sector productivity has stagnated since Q2 2019, & even with a 1.1% flash rise including the public sector, there’s still no real sign of a pickup.
bit.ly/4p1nzYI
Private-sector productivity has stagnated since Q2 2019, & even with a 1.1% flash rise including the public sector, there’s still no real sign of a pickup.
bit.ly/4p1nzYI
November 25, 2025 at 9:18 AM
Productivity figures offer little reassurance for the Chancellor ahead of the Budget tmrw, writes @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social
Private-sector productivity has stagnated since Q2 2019, & even with a 1.1% flash rise including the public sector, there’s still no real sign of a pickup.
bit.ly/4p1nzYI
Private-sector productivity has stagnated since Q2 2019, & even with a 1.1% flash rise including the public sector, there’s still no real sign of a pickup.
bit.ly/4p1nzYI
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
The UK’s rules are more tightly drawn than those in many other countries and set up a regular tug of war between the OBR and the Treasury before the budget
www.thetimes.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:08 PM
My Times piece: We need an independent fiscal watchdog like the OBR, but asking it to judge whether fiscal rules will be met in five years’ time, and raising taxes if not, is eccentric:
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Our obsession with the fiscal rules is a very British problem
www.thetimes.com/article/c797...
Swiss chemicals group Clariant warns of more production leaving Europe for China www.ft.com/content/d44a...
Swiss chemicals group Clariant warns of more production leaving Europe
Chief executive highlights continent’s higher energy and labour costs as he expands capacity in China
www.ft.com
November 16, 2025 at 10:16 AM
Swiss chemicals group Clariant warns of more production leaving Europe for China www.ft.com/content/d44a...
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
My Sunday Times piece: In which, amid extraordinary budget chaos and disappointing economic news, I look for reasons to be cheerful, or at least not excessively miserable:
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
The data for growth and unemployment is disappointing and tax rises are coming in the budget, but interest rate cuts and market credibility may also be in sight
www.thetimes.com
November 15, 2025 at 10:33 PM
My Sunday Times piece: In which, amid extraordinary budget chaos and disappointing economic news, I look for reasons to be cheerful, or at least not excessively miserable:
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
As economic gloom descends, it’s time to unleash my inner Tigger
www.thetimes.com/article/d6a2...
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
1/10
Important Benn Steil article on globalization, free trade, and the cost of underwriting both. He cites Wendell Willkie in 1944 as "recognizing how perilous it would be to integrate market economies with state-directed ones."
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social
prosyn.org/LkdDyx7
Important Benn Steil article on globalization, free trade, and the cost of underwriting both. He cites Wendell Willkie in 1944 as "recognizing how perilous it would be to integrate market economies with state-directed ones."
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social
prosyn.org/LkdDyx7
prosyn.org
November 16, 2025 at 5:56 AM
1/10
Important Benn Steil article on globalization, free trade, and the cost of underwriting both. He cites Wendell Willkie in 1944 as "recognizing how perilous it would be to integrate market economies with state-directed ones."
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social
prosyn.org/LkdDyx7
Important Benn Steil article on globalization, free trade, and the cost of underwriting both. He cites Wendell Willkie in 1944 as "recognizing how perilous it would be to integrate market economies with state-directed ones."
@projectsyndicate.bsky.social
prosyn.org/LkdDyx7
Excellent ONS blog on the ways of measuring hours. Both measures are reasonably consistent despite measuring slightly different things. Probably best not to make too much of the recent divergence - yet. blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/13/productivity-balancing-different-approaches-on-how-to-measure-it/
Productivity – balancing different approaches on how to measure it
There has been debate recently about which source of information on jobs and working patterns should be used to best estimate changes in productivity. In this blog Richard Heys looks at the different
blog.ons.gov.uk
November 13, 2025 at 10:15 AM
Excellent ONS blog on the ways of measuring hours. Both measures are reasonably consistent despite measuring slightly different things. Probably best not to make too much of the recent divergence - yet. blog.ons.gov.uk/2025/11/13/productivity-balancing-different-approaches-on-how-to-measure-it/
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
After disappointing labour market figures and anticipated tax rises, the government’s Employment Rights Bill will only push the country further to the extreme
www.thetimes.com
November 11, 2025 at 5:36 PM
My Times piece: Hopes that the job market was stabilising were dashed by the latest official figures, which send a warning to the government not to risk further job-destroying policies:
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Job market hit by budget fears while still reeling from past one
www.thetimes.com/article/896e...
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
Applications are now open for our new MPhil in Digital Policy starting Oct 2026.
The course will draw on the latest Bennett research & close collaboration with policymakers, business leaders, & civil society to address key challenges.
Find out more: www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/study/mphil-...
The course will draw on the latest Bennett research & close collaboration with policymakers, business leaders, & civil society to address key challenges.
Find out more: www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/study/mphil-...
November 11, 2025 at 3:12 PM
Applications are now open for our new MPhil in Digital Policy starting Oct 2026.
The course will draw on the latest Bennett research & close collaboration with policymakers, business leaders, & civil society to address key challenges.
Find out more: www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/study/mphil-...
The course will draw on the latest Bennett research & close collaboration with policymakers, business leaders, & civil society to address key challenges.
Find out more: www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/study/mphil-...
Good piece by @marymcd.bsky.social on insurers taking leveraged gilt bets to enhance returns ft.com/content/427a... One reason for this demand is the UK government has closed off the market for public corporation debt (pricing at c.50-100 bps above gilts) Crucially this debt would transform the rate
Leverage creeps into gilts market as insurers seek to boost returns
Use of derivatives to enhance bets on UK government bonds raises parallels with strategies that fuelled 2022 meltdown
ft.com
November 6, 2025 at 8:22 AM
Good piece by @marymcd.bsky.social on insurers taking leveraged gilt bets to enhance returns ft.com/content/427a... One reason for this demand is the UK government has closed off the market for public corporation debt (pricing at c.50-100 bps above gilts) Crucially this debt would transform the rate
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
Though markets are set up for a close decision, they are on balance not expecting a cut. To reduce rates this week could put downward pressure on the pound
www.thetimes.com
November 4, 2025 at 4:47 PM
My Times piece: Why the Bank of England should not cut interest rates this week, ahead of the budget, and probably not again this year:
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Bank of England would boost its credibility by not cutting rates
www.thetimes.com/article/e67e...
Why bond investors should support a letter to the Chancellor to use public corporation debt to drive growth & finance the next wave of urban extensions - (as it wont impact the public finances) henrytapper.com/2025/11/04/financing-the-next-wave-of-new-towns-investment-not-government-borrowing/
Financing the next wave of New Towns; investment not Government borrowing
I have been sent a blog from Tom Aubrey and Con Keating about how we pay for the new towns we need to house millions of people who aren’t living in their own places or living in places they&#…
henrytapper.com
November 4, 2025 at 8:57 AM
Why bond investors should support a letter to the Chancellor to use public corporation debt to drive growth & finance the next wave of urban extensions - (as it wont impact the public finances) henrytapper.com/2025/11/04/financing-the-next-wave-of-new-towns-investment-not-government-borrowing/
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
BBCFOUR tonight (and onwards) is showing the original series Edge of Darkness - please book your seat now.. www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
Edge of Darkness - Series 1: 1. Compassionate Leave
Thriller set in a world of obsessive state security. Ronald Craven is haunted by the murder of his daughter and begins his own investigation into her death.
www.bbc.co.uk
November 1, 2025 at 11:20 AM
BBCFOUR tonight (and onwards) is showing the original series Edge of Darkness - please book your seat now.. www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/epis...
www.ft.com/content/399a... Good opportunity for Schaeffler to set up manufacturing plant in the US for its electric motors which can substitute a majority of rare earth magnet applications.
China ‘made a real mistake’ by ‘firing shots’ on rare earths, says Scott Bessent
US Treasury secretary says US will protect itself from supply shocks in 12-24 months
www.ft.com
October 31, 2025 at 5:53 PM
www.ft.com/content/399a... Good opportunity for Schaeffler to set up manufacturing plant in the US for its electric motors which can substitute a majority of rare earth magnet applications.
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
Our Visiting Senior Fellow Dr Thomas Aubrey @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social has published a new article in The European Legacy, which discusses the decline of the Liberal International Order and why liberals should embrace it.
Read more 👇
Read more 👇
Why liberals should embrace the demise of the ‘liberal international order’
Our Visiting Senior Fellow Dr Thomas Aubrey has published a new article in The European Legacy, which discusses the decline of the Liberal International Order and why liberals should embrace it.
www.lse.ac.uk
October 31, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Our Visiting Senior Fellow Dr Thomas Aubrey @thomasaubreycca.bsky.social has published a new article in The European Legacy, which discusses the decline of the Liberal International Order and why liberals should embrace it.
Read more 👇
Read more 👇
UK firm gets funding for green fertilizer project in Paraguay www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/ne...
World Bank arm signs off investment in ATOME’s $630m Paraguay fertiliser project
ATOME PLC (AIM:ATOM), the London-listed developer of low-carbon fertiliser, has secured support from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the...
www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk
October 30, 2025 at 9:43 AM
UK firm gets funding for green fertilizer project in Paraguay www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/ne...
Will be interesting to see how quickly European car makers start to remove rare earth magnet electric motors and replace them with products from Schaeffler. C. 60% of demand for rare earths are for magnets and C. 60% of rare earth magnets www.theguardian.com/business/202... @lisaocarroll.bsky.social
EU carmakers ‘days away’ from halting work as chip war with China escalates
Industry body says reserves of Nexperia semiconductors are dwindling after Beijing bans exports of key components
www.theguardian.com
October 30, 2025 at 8:19 AM
Will be interesting to see how quickly European car makers start to remove rare earth magnet electric motors and replace them with products from Schaeffler. C. 60% of demand for rare earths are for magnets and C. 60% of rare earth magnets www.theguardian.com/business/202... @lisaocarroll.bsky.social
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
Very much looking forward to discussing my book ‘Your Life is Manufactured’ with the wonderful Professor Sharon Peacock on 4th November at Churchill College.
Tickets are free -book via www.chu.cam.ac.uk/event/10570/
#booksky #making #manufacturing
@churchillcol.bsky.social
@faberbooks.bsky.social
Tickets are free -book via www.chu.cam.ac.uk/event/10570/
#booksky #making #manufacturing
@churchillcol.bsky.social
@faberbooks.bsky.social
The Master's Book Club - Churchill College
Join us to hear from Churchill College Fellow Prof. Tim Minshall in conversation with the Master of Churchill College, Prof. Sharon Peacock, as they discuss his book: Your Life is Manufactured: How We...
www.chu.cam.ac.uk
October 28, 2025 at 9:50 PM
Very much looking forward to discussing my book ‘Your Life is Manufactured’ with the wonderful Professor Sharon Peacock on 4th November at Churchill College.
Tickets are free -book via www.chu.cam.ac.uk/event/10570/
#booksky #making #manufacturing
@churchillcol.bsky.social
@faberbooks.bsky.social
Tickets are free -book via www.chu.cam.ac.uk/event/10570/
#booksky #making #manufacturing
@churchillcol.bsky.social
@faberbooks.bsky.social
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
I’ve written for @financialtimes.com about the need for belief in the future to get things built on.ft.com/47cO3Qs Why optimists build better infrastructure
Why optimists build better infrastructure
History credits the Victorians for their grand — and enduring — schemes but we need our eyes on the future to emulate them
on.ft.com
October 29, 2025 at 6:25 PM
I’ve written for @financialtimes.com about the need for belief in the future to get things built on.ft.com/47cO3Qs Why optimists build better infrastructure
Delighted that my article on liberal international relations theory and Isaiah Berlin is now out. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... Might be of interest to @padamson.bsky.social @cerianbond.bsky.social
Why Liberals Should Embrace the Demise of the ‘Liberal International Order’
The decline of the Liberal International Order is increasingly acknowledged by observers of international relations. This decline has left liberals struggling to respond to the rise of a more reali...
www.tandfonline.com
October 27, 2025 at 6:37 PM
Delighted that my article on liberal international relations theory and Isaiah Berlin is now out. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... Might be of interest to @padamson.bsky.social @cerianbond.bsky.social
Delighted that my article on liberal international relations theory and Isaiah Berlin is now out. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... @michaelkenny.bsky.social @chrisbrooke.bsky.social @lse-ei.bsky.social
Why Liberals Should Embrace the Demise of the ‘Liberal International Order’
The decline of the Liberal International Order is increasingly acknowledged by observers of international relations. This decline has left liberals struggling to respond to the rise of a more reali...
www.tandfonline.com
October 27, 2025 at 5:46 PM
Delighted that my article on liberal international relations theory and Isaiah Berlin is now out. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.... @michaelkenny.bsky.social @chrisbrooke.bsky.social @lse-ei.bsky.social
Reposted by Thomas Aubrey
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
As Rachel Reeves readies tax rises, the UK’s exit from the EU has left productivity, growth and trade in a worse place than they would have been
www.thetimes.com
October 25, 2025 at 2:40 PM
My Sunday Times piece: The negative effects of Brexit on trade, investment, growth and productivity have re-emerged ahead of the November 26 budget. Plus: scrapping the 60% marginal rate would cost a lot:
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...
Why the economic fallout from Brexit is a hot issue again
www.thetimes.com/article/aa8a...