Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
Strategy & Asset Allocation. Queasy metropolitan liberal. “Economist” -
@t0nyyates
@t0nyyates
Pinned
Tomas Hirst
@tomashirstecon.bsky.social
· Nov 10
Hello new Bluesky-ers! Guess I should do one of these awkward introductory posts - work in asset allocation but mostly here for finance, economics, social policy and politics (though the last almost exclusively through a policy lens). Frequently snarky, but aspiring to avoid cantankerousness.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
November 25, 2025 at 1:45 PM
RF are pro MW, but we agree it's 2nd order to benefits in tackling poverty. Big fight with Osborne over that re tax credit cuts in 2015.
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
One example: a 2-earner 3-kid family on MW wld have been *worse* off in 2024 than 2014 despite real earnings up 27% www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications...
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Much to agree with here, notably on Labour's bewildering lack of interest in what 2010-24 governments actually did in policy terms. But this - something we have known for well over a century! - just cannot be repeated too often.
November 25, 2025 at 12:35 PM
Much to agree with here, notably on Labour's bewildering lack of interest in what 2010-24 governments actually did in policy terms. But this - something we have known for well over a century! - just cannot be repeated too often.
Anyone describing the GFC policy response as “bailing out a bubble” is going to turn me into the joker
November 24, 2025 at 10:49 PM
Anyone describing the GFC policy response as “bailing out a bubble” is going to turn me into the joker
This might sound like a bit but basically…you can’t really impose these taxes in a world that tolerates crypto currencies.
It sounds all but impossible to ban transfers of cash or other assets between countries - without massively impeding all sorts of economic, trade + educational activity, as well as family & other relationships. (It would be possible to apply taxes of various kinds, with some similar challenges)
November 24, 2025 at 10:46 PM
This might sound like a bit but basically…you can’t really impose these taxes in a world that tolerates crypto currencies.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
A federal judge has dismissed the charges against former FBI director James Comey, ruling that the former Trump attorney who brought the charges was not legally serving as the U.S. attorney.
November 24, 2025 at 5:41 PM
A federal judge has dismissed the charges against former FBI director James Comey, ruling that the former Trump attorney who brought the charges was not legally serving as the U.S. attorney.
If you’re wondering why private credit proxies are garnering some interest from people looking to fade the AI theme, I think this is the reason
If you want to target the more speculative parts of the structure, where the outcomes are more binary, private credit as a VC proxy is not a bad way of reflecting this. Megascalers have a lot of cash/revenues!
November 24, 2025 at 4:05 PM
If you’re wondering why private credit proxies are garnering some interest from people looking to fade the AI theme, I think this is the reason
We know why left governments struggle in a weak growth environment (their coalition is fragile and the redistribution they want likely has to come out of another part of their base). But the right is now trying to build a coalition of groups with interests in direct conflict with one another.
November 24, 2025 at 3:14 PM
We know why left governments struggle in a weak growth environment (their coalition is fragile and the redistribution they want likely has to come out of another part of their base). But the right is now trying to build a coalition of groups with interests in direct conflict with one another.
This is great. Also, for some reason, the only piano piece that fully lodged in my brain (so I can still play by memory)
November 24, 2025 at 1:48 PM
This is great. Also, for some reason, the only piano piece that fully lodged in my brain (so I can still play by memory)
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
A fortnight ago, Keir Starmer told the Cabinet that leaking was not tolerated from his team. It obviously is! No wonder there is an endemic culture across much of this government of not going 'okay, is that true tho?'
November 24, 2025 at 10:34 AM
A fortnight ago, Keir Starmer told the Cabinet that leaking was not tolerated from his team. It obviously is! No wonder there is an endemic culture across much of this government of not going 'okay, is that true tho?'
And the political choices that would allow you to be indifferent to bond market sentiment are functionally identical to the ones people making these arguments are trying to reject
The bond market doesn't care if it was "elected" or not or if you think it's holding your political aspirations to ransom it just... exists.
November 24, 2025 at 10:10 AM
And the political choices that would allow you to be indifferent to bond market sentiment are functionally identical to the ones people making these arguments are trying to reject
A movie that takes place where you’re from
November 24, 2025 at 10:04 AM
A movie that takes place where you’re from
Danny-Kruger effect (nominative determinism undefeated)
So many laughable assumptions in this opening sentence that I honestly don't know where to start. 🤦
"What I struggle to understand, I say to Danny Kruger in his office at Reform UK HQ, is why a serious Conservative, with a glittering future like yours, would defect to a party led by Nigel Farage?
"What I struggle to understand, I say to Danny Kruger in his office at Reform UK HQ, is why a serious Conservative, with a glittering future like yours, would defect to a party led by Nigel Farage?
‘America is British’. Heaven is ‘a socialist state’. David Attenborough is ‘anti-human’ – the startling theories of Reform MP Danny Kruger
He was a Conservative party big-hitter who wrote speeches for David Cameron and worked with Boris Johnson before he suddenly jumped ship. He talks family, flags and why Nigel Farage is ‘top dog’
www.theguardian.com
November 22, 2025 at 5:34 PM
Danny-Kruger effect (nominative determinism undefeated)
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
November 21, 2025 at 6:37 PM
"We own these two stocks that attract the gullible and conspiracy-minded and were surprised to learn that many of those same investors have lots of exposure to bitcoin..."
Of all the things in the leaked Russia-Ukraine “deal” this bit grates the most - grotesque attempts to profit from tragedy
November 21, 2025 at 1:12 PM
Of all the things in the leaked Russia-Ukraine “deal” this bit grates the most - grotesque attempts to profit from tragedy
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
My guys at the Harvard Management Company absolutely never miss
November 21, 2025 at 12:44 PM
My guys at the Harvard Management Company absolutely never miss
Always fun when crypto is melting down, but the fundamental problem is that it’s been mainstreamed by people who should know better and, frankly, have a duty of care to retail investors that they were happy to breach to chance crime-coin $s.
The finance community writ-large is so primed to the “listen to me to get rich” logic that they’re zugzwanging themselves into crypto-nihilism. But it’s still an abdication of duty to pitch it.
November 21, 2025 at 8:29 AM
Always fun when crypto is melting down, but the fundamental problem is that it’s been mainstreamed by people who should know better and, frankly, have a duty of care to retail investors that they were happy to breach to chance crime-coin $s.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
I feel like the left more broadly wants economists to say that the economy is in shambles right now and the current "eh, I mean it is deteriorating but pretty slowly so far" is not satisfying
November 20, 2025 at 2:09 PM
I feel like the left more broadly wants economists to say that the economy is in shambles right now and the current "eh, I mean it is deteriorating but pretty slowly so far" is not satisfying
If you wanted one chart that would make me continue to say that the pandemic policy response and tradeoffs thereafter were worth it (from a macro perspective) this would probably be it. Sustained periods of v v high prime-age EPOP are rare!
Prime age (25-54 years old) EPOP measures core labor market strength, omits people on fringes of work steady at 80.7%, below record-high of 80.9% a year ago
It was never higher than this during 2002-'22 (80.4% high).
Constrains adding jobs without immigration = working age folks are working.
It was never higher than this during 2002-'22 (80.4% high).
Constrains adding jobs without immigration = working age folks are working.
November 20, 2025 at 1:50 PM
If you wanted one chart that would make me continue to say that the pandemic policy response and tradeoffs thereafter were worth it (from a macro perspective) this would probably be it. Sustained periods of v v high prime-age EPOP are rare!
Just dusted off the ECO shortcut on my BBG keyboard. It’s been a while, old friend.
November 20, 2025 at 1:16 PM
Just dusted off the ECO shortcut on my BBG keyboard. It’s been a while, old friend.
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Bet the market will make is that, ultimately, they’ll be forced into the spending they’re trying to avoid today but continue to shy away from the tax levers they would need to fund it. Bond markets will respond by keeping to cost of government debt prohibitive, raising cost on rolling existing debt.
November 20, 2025 at 10:25 AM
Bet the market will make is that, ultimately, they’ll be forced into the spending they’re trying to avoid today but continue to shy away from the tax levers they would need to fund it. Bond markets will respond by keeping to cost of government debt prohibitive, raising cost on rolling existing debt.
File under: Labour appearing surprised to discover that all taxes are unpopular and (almost) all spending is popular
Either you support a tax on wealthier people or you don’t.
on.ft.com/44azcE6 Rachel Reeves under pressure to scale back Budget raid on expensive homes
on.ft.com/44azcE6 Rachel Reeves under pressure to scale back Budget raid on expensive homes
November 20, 2025 at 10:07 AM
File under: Labour appearing surprised to discover that all taxes are unpopular and (almost) all spending is popular
Reposted by Tomas Hirst
Even if they are doing so prudently on an individual by individual basis (taking into account the volatility of the asset class) it can still cause problematic spillovers. BTC has cashflow problem - in that it doesn't really generate any. As such, when price falls there's no natural buyer of the dip
July 22, 2025 at 11:01 AM
Even if they are doing so prudently on an individual by individual basis (taking into account the volatility of the asset class) it can still cause problematic spillovers. BTC has cashflow problem - in that it doesn't really generate any. As such, when price falls there's no natural buyer of the dip