Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
Epidemiology, infection
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
Pinned
Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
· Dec 20
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Reposted by Tom Yates
For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
January 29, 2026 at 10:58 AM
For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded
Reposted by Tom Yates
We published explosive stories about the president of El Salvador. Now we can’t go home
We published explosive stories about the president of El Salvador. Now we can’t go home
The long read: Days before we ran interviews with gang leaders describing their alleged ties to Nayib Bukele’s government, we left the country to avoid arrest. We fear our exile will never end
www.theguardian.com
November 6, 2025 at 6:49 AM
We published explosive stories about the president of El Salvador. Now we can’t go home
Reposted by Tom Yates
Please join us in person or online @lshtm-dash.bsky.social on 26th February to hear about @georgiatomova.bsky.social's recent work on 'How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias?'
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias? | LSHTM
Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview, and are commonly used in health research. Such data are traditionally collected via a single
www.lshtm.ac.uk
January 29, 2026 at 7:48 AM
Please join us in person or online @lshtm-dash.bsky.social on 26th February to hear about @georgiatomova.bsky.social's recent work on 'How can different modes of survey data collection introduce bias?'
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/e...
Reposted by Tom Yates
Assumption of the Virgin, by Guido Reno, 1598-99, 📸 by Jose Manuel Alvarez Rey
January 29, 2026 at 2:00 AM
Assumption of the Virgin, by Guido Reno, 1598-99, 📸 by Jose Manuel Alvarez Rey
For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
January 29, 2026 at 10:58 AM
For those who like to dig into the weeds, the Supplemental Material has finally been uploaded
Reposted by Tom Yates
If we should fail?
Burnham would
January 25, 2026 at 12:33 PM
If we should fail?
Reposted by Tom Yates
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
How to interpret hazard ratios
Survival analysis of time-to-event outcomes is very commonly performed using Cox’s famous proportional hazards model. The model estimates hazard ratios for the ‘effects’ of covari…
thestatsgeek.com
January 15, 2026 at 10:52 AM
'How to interpret hazard ratios', with @dominicmagirr.bsky.social and @timpmorris.bsky.social thestatsgeek.com/2026/01/15/h...
Reposted by Tom Yates
If you are interested in all things ✨causal inference✨, please join our multidisciplinary Causal Inference Interest Group (CIIG). We host monthly seminars featuring speakers with various academic backgrounds and research interests.
Links below.
cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social
Links below.
cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social
January 20, 2026 at 12:35 PM
If you are interested in all things ✨causal inference✨, please join our multidisciplinary Causal Inference Interest Group (CIIG). We host monthly seminars featuring speakers with various academic backgrounds and research interests.
Links below.
cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social
Links below.
cc @clscohorts.bsky.social @pwgtennant.bsky.social
Written by a family friend
✉️ "Iran is a country to love – complicated, contradictory, capable of tremendous beauty and cruelty – like every place humans have ever tried to build something lasting."
Read why Iran is so much more than the bloodshed in the news ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bluesky-tmg/iran-to-cherish/
Read why Iran is so much more than the bloodshed in the news ⬇️
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bluesky-tmg/iran-to-cherish/
January 17, 2026 at 12:22 PM
Written by a family friend
This story should focus much more on the ground breaking STAMPEDE trial
The big story here is innovative, ambitious, robust randomised trials, not squabbles between charities and regulators
The big story here is innovative, ambitious, robust randomised trials, not squabbles between charities and regulators
NHS expands access to prostate cancer drug in England to save thousands of lives
NHS expands access to prostate cancer drug in England to save thousands of lives
Charity hails ‘momentous’ decision to give abiraterone to about 8,000 newly diagnosed men each year
The NHS has expanded access to a prostate cancer drug across England in a move expected to save thousands of lives.
Abiraterone, which starves cancer cells of the hormones they need to grow, will be offered to men who are newly diagnosed and whose disease has not spread beyond the prostate. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 17, 2026 at 9:05 AM
This story should focus much more on the ground breaking STAMPEDE trial
The big story here is innovative, ambitious, robust randomised trials, not squabbles between charities and regulators
The big story here is innovative, ambitious, robust randomised trials, not squabbles between charities and regulators
Reposted by Tom Yates
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Subsidies guaranteeing price for each unit of clean electricity generated given to 12 renewables projects
A make-or-break auction for the UK government’s goal to create a clean electricity system by 2030 has awarded subsidy contracts to enough offshore windfarms to power a record 12m homes.
In Great Britain’s most competitive auction for renewable subsidies to date, energy companies vied for contracts that guarantee the price for each unit of clean electricity they generate. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 14, 2026 at 7:30 AM
Offshore windfarm contracts to fuel 12m homes in Great Britain after record auction
Reposted by Tom Yates
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
January 10, 2026 at 10:31 AM
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
January 10, 2026 at 10:31 AM
NEW LETTER
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
We raise statistical and ethical concerns about a M tuberculosis transmission study
Researchers intentionally delaying TB treatment should not be enrolling people with very low CD4 counts
academic.oup.com/jid/advance-...
@davidadambarr.bsky.social @jidjournal.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Yates
This was the funniest line to me: “If there is one thing to strongly object to about these guidelines, it’s that they are likely to be hard for many people to follow.” Oh really? That’s the one thing to strongly object to? It’s just too hard for people to eat enough steak, cheese and beef tallow?
January 8, 2026 at 2:06 PM
This was the funniest line to me: “If there is one thing to strongly object to about these guidelines, it’s that they are likely to be hard for many people to follow.” Oh really? That’s the one thing to strongly object to? It’s just too hard for people to eat enough steak, cheese and beef tallow?
That and the complete scientific illiteracy of rejecting the idea that saturated fat is bad for you
The industry connections of an advisory panel for the new dietary guidelines are notable, especially in light of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s criticism of corporate influence.
www.statnews.com/2026/01/07/n...
www.statnews.com/2026/01/07/n...
Panel behind new dietary guidelines had financial ties to beef, dairy industries
The industry connections of an advisory panel for the new dietary guidelines are notable, especially in light of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s criticism of corporate influence.
www.statnews.com
January 8, 2026 at 1:43 PM
That and the complete scientific illiteracy of rejecting the idea that saturated fat is bad for you
Reposted by Tom Yates
I know a bit about the past of MR, something about the present, and look forward to discussing whether MR has a future, and if so, how that should look
If you are interested in the past, present, and future of Mendelian Randomisation, join us later this month for a Causal Inference Interest Group seminar on MR with none other than @mendelrandom.bsky.social
Zoom registration link: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
Zoom registration link: ucl.zoom.us/meeting/regi...
January 5, 2026 at 11:10 PM
I know a bit about the past of MR, something about the present, and look forward to discussing whether MR has a future, and if so, how that should look
Reposted by Tom Yates
Trial statisticians!
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
January 8, 2026 at 10:25 AM
Trial statisticians!
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Should RCT pubs report conventional 95%-confidence intervals if they did a futility interim and continued the trial?
No sampling distribution can possibly be Gaussian if randomly better than average data reaches study completion while randomly worse than average doesn't.
Not sure I understand @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social's approach to decision making
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
January 6, 2026 at 7:38 PM
Not sure I understand @mainstreamlabour.bsky.social's approach to decision making
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
How is being asked to vote "yes" or "no" to slates of NEC candidates that have been preselected by somebody a meaningful vote?
Why not allow supporters an opportunity to choose candidates to endorse?
The UK should be clear that there will be material consequences - not just words - if Netanyahu persists in actions like these which set back hopes of a fair negotiated peace settlement
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
Israel pushes ahead with vast illegal settlement in heart of West Bank
Israel pushes ahead with vast illegal settlement in heart of West Bank
Tender posted for construction of 3,401 homes in settlement designed to ‘bury idea of a Palestinian state’
Israel is moving to start construction on a vast illegal settlement in the heart of the West Bank, designed to “bury the idea of a Palestinian state”.
The Israel Land Authority in mid-December quietly posted a tender for construction of 3,401 homes in the “E1” project, which will effectively sever the north and south of the occupied West Bank for Palestinians, and further cut off East Jerusalem. Continue reading...
www.theguardian.com
January 6, 2026 at 6:19 PM
The UK should be clear that there will be material consequences - not just words - if Netanyahu persists in actions like these which set back hopes of a fair negotiated peace settlement
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
There are two communities on this land, and neither is going anywhere
@stellacreasy.bsky.social
Reposted by Tom Yates
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
It’s not just the triumphalism in the White House. Leaders loth to oppose this gangsterism must think how that looks to Putin, Xi and in the UAE, says Guardian columnist Nesrine Malik
www.theguardian.com
January 5, 2026 at 8:43 AM
Trump’s coup in Venezuela didn’t just break the rules – it showed there aren’t any. We’ll all regret that | Nesrine Malik
Reposted by Tom Yates
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
December 9, 2025 at 1:58 PM
I'm teaching Statistical Rethinking again starting Jan 2026. This time with live lectures, divided into Beginner and Experienced sections. Will be a lot more work for me, but I hope much better for students.
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
I will record lectures & all will be found at this link: github.com/rmcelreath/s...
Reposted by Tom Yates
On the pod: Colin Yeo, a barrister and author of ‘Welcome to Britain: Fixing Our Broken Immigration System’, and Nicola Kelly, author of ‘Anywhere But Here: How Britain’s Broken Asylum System Fails Us All’, join James Butler to explore the politics of migration.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
On Politics: Inside Britain’s Asylum System
Podcast Episode · The LRB Podcast · 10/12/2025 · 1h 3m
podcasts.apple.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:39 AM
On the pod: Colin Yeo, a barrister and author of ‘Welcome to Britain: Fixing Our Broken Immigration System’, and Nicola Kelly, author of ‘Anywhere But Here: How Britain’s Broken Asylum System Fails Us All’, join James Butler to explore the politics of migration.
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/t...
Reposted by Tom Yates
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
Social Inequalities in Infectious Disease Dynamics: a Symposium and Workshop
iddconf.org
December 16, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Symposium & workshop on inequalities in infectious disease dynamics at LSHTM in April 2026. We aim to will bring together leading researchers and practitioners to share ideas, discuss recent advances, and reflect on future directions. Details & application: iddconf.org/lshtm-sympos... Closing 21 Jan
Reposted by Tom Yates
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
December 20, 2025 at 1:51 PM
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Reposted by Tom Yates
👇Great thread on TB strain concordance/strain discordance among household contacts. If I read correctly, findings from a 1998 small series from San Francisco consistent with the much greater analysis. ++ Implications for transmission and management of contacts.
NEW PREPRINT!
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
We systematically reviewed molecular epidemiology studies looking at strain discordance in pairs of people with TB disease and history of household contact
We found 30 studies from 18 countries. Excluding 4 studies at high risk of bias, we had data on 1544 household case pairs
[1/n]
Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex Strain Discordance Among People With Tuberculosis and a History of Household Contact, a Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Background: In this systematic review of molecular epidemiology studies, we describe the prevalence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex strain discordance amo
papers.ssrn.com
December 20, 2025 at 2:32 PM
👇Great thread on TB strain concordance/strain discordance among household contacts. If I read correctly, findings from a 1998 small series from San Francisco consistent with the much greater analysis. ++ Implications for transmission and management of contacts.