Tom Yates
@tomayates.bsky.social
6.2K followers 2.4K following 570 posts
Epidemiology, infection https://profiles.ucl.ac.uk/37299-tom-yates/about
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tomayates.bsky.social
Recording now available, link below

Our approach avoids

- giving equal weight to events of v different importance
- falsely concluding noninferiority
- generating estimates that won't generalise
- bias if regimens of different duration

And it improves precision!

@danieljgrint.bsky.social #IDSky
tomayates.bsky.social
Powell or Phillipson? I am leaning Powell
tomayates.bsky.social
I have no idea. The press release suggests two different dosing strategies were tried
tomayates.bsky.social
Sham procedures are certainly done to robustly evaluate surgical interventions - you can blind patient and have blinded outcome assessors

Or a blinded MAMS-ROCI across a wide range of doses could have been done - a completely flat dose response curve would suggest no biological activity
tomayates.bsky.social
I think the regulator/REC dropped the ball

This exercise reduced equipoise without generating sufficient data to allow intervention to be confidently rolled out

To roll out expensive invasive intervention in perpetuity, we really need to know how well it works
tomayates.bsky.social
For me, the key question is whether that journey includes a trial demonstrating definitively whether the intervention does more good than harm
tomayates.bsky.social
I am not sure data of that kind can be sufficiently robust to roll out an invasive intervention without an RCT
tomayates.bsky.social
I don't know if those data exist. Will be mix of leaving and not starting research track. The consultant contract partly compensates trainees who delay completing training due to dual specialty or less than full time working, but there is no such protection for time spent in research.
Reposted by Tom Yates
jdportes.bsky.social
There are actually credible and competent analysts looking at the data.

www.laurenpolicy.com/p/are-recent...

The average main applicant who received a visa 2019-2023 made about 45% more than the average person in the UK.

The average dependent who received a visa 2019-2023 made about 25% less than the average person in the UK.

The average person who received a humanitarian visa made about 33% less than the average person in the UK.

When we take a weighted average of all categories of 2019-2023, the average new migrant who arrived 2019-2023 made £24,881 in FY 2023-2024. This is about 4% more than average earnings - even when I have made optimistic assumptions about native-born earnings and excluded any self-employment income for migrants.

It is difficult to see how admitting people who outearn the native-born would be catastrophic for public finances, particularly given that the British state need not pay to educate them. The data certainly does not seem to suggest this cohort is a “ticking time bomb” for British public finances
tomayates.bsky.social
I don't think that is true for medically trained folk

The current generation exit medical school with ~100k debt

There will generally be clinical work available, to pay bills

Choosing academic path means losing £10ks in pay
tomayates.bsky.social
Maybe not a priority, though I'd point out govt are also opening new prisons, extending freeze on fuel duty, maintaining tax relief for rich pensioners, etc

Leaving things as they are will mean docs from less affluent backgrounds will be underrepresented in next generation of clinical academics
tomayates.bsky.social
There is a big financial penalty to pursuing a clinical academic career - delay to CCT (consultant salary), loss of out of hours supplements whilst on research blocks

Unless this can be addressed, it will increasingly become a choice restricted to doctors from wealthy families
imperialmed.bsky.social
Is an ‘exodus’ of clinical researchers threatening the future of UK healthcare?

“For young NHS clinicians coming through they are often not rewarded for what they’ve done in science whereas they used to be." – Prof Graham Cooke spoke to @financialtimes.com

www.ft.com/content/c4fa...
‘Exodus’ of clinical researchers sparks concern over future of UK healthcare
Lack of incentives is driving down the number of clinical researchers in Britain
www.ft.com
Reposted by Tom Yates
mainstreamlabour.bsky.social
There's overwhelming support amongst Labour's membership for a more radical offer on democracy, the economy, child poverty & more.

We believe the voices of radical realists, the vast majority of the Labour Party, must be heard and heeded.

Join us: mainstreamlabour.org/get-involved
Results of polling initiated by Compass: 
- 92% of Labour Party members support the public ownership of essential utilities. 
- 91% support taxing the wealth of the richest in our society.
- 84% support an end to the two-child benefit limit.
tomayates.bsky.social
Genuinely exciting progress!We managed to switch to a heat pump essentially cost free - BUS plus a Green Living Reward from Halifax
tomayates.bsky.social
All feels very New Labour - disaster unfolding in the Middle East, performative cruelty in the media, and genuinely progressive changes going mostly unnoticed
bphillipsonmp.bsky.social
🥳 NEW: Working parents now have access to 30 hours of government-funded childcare, saving families £7,500 and providing high quality early years education for children.

Labour’s Plan for Change is putting money in parents’ pockets and giving children the best start in life.
tomayates.bsky.social
Looking for good papers on the impact of recent funding cuts on TB treatment and research, ideally with a focus on RRTB

Have seen this from TB Think Tank (pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC...) and this from @lshtm-tbmod.bsky.social (pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/40659023/)

What else?

#IDSky #TBSky
tomayates.bsky.social
White toast, lots of butter, slug of worcestershire sauce
tomayates.bsky.social
So many villains

Starmer driving progressive folk away from the Labour Party

Rayner weakening Labour left

Polanski / Corbyn failing to understand that dividing left leads to Tory / Reform govt, hurting everything they believe in

Everyone failing to see PR is also unfair, just in a different way
Reposted by Tom Yates
nytpitchbot.bsky.social
Whether it's Democrats making it harder for kids to get cigarettes or Republicans making it harder for kids to get vaccines, both sides have imposed the will of government on America's children.