Tom Powdrill
@tompowdrill.bsky.social
Labour and Capital: stewardship, responsible investment, labour rights, unions, pensions, corporate governance, workforce engagement
Looking again at this, the surge in support for the Greens nationally is not (yet?) translating into a large number of local wins. Wonder if that’s a gap between apparent enthusiasm and actual votes or that their support is wide but thin (which is potentially bad news for an anti-Reform Left bloc)
Aggregate Result of the 167 Council By-Elections (for 170 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:
RFM: 57 (+49)
LDM: 49 (+18)
CON: 18 (-20)
LAB: 14 (-39)
GRN: 14 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-4)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
RFM: 57 (+49)
LDM: 49 (+18)
CON: 18 (-20)
LAB: 14 (-39)
GRN: 14 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-4)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
November 26, 2025 at 11:56 AM
Looking again at this, the surge in support for the Greens nationally is not (yet?) translating into a large number of local wins. Wonder if that’s a gap between apparent enthusiasm and actual votes or that their support is wide but thin (which is potentially bad news for an anti-Reform Left bloc)
I think Farage has slipped up for once. That interview is exactly the sort of non-denial denial that cynical voters can recognise at once.
November 26, 2025 at 11:36 AM
I think Farage has slipped up for once. That interview is exactly the sort of non-denial denial that cynical voters can recognise at once.
As a nerd I’m obviously interested in the ideological history of fascism (and lots of other isms). But I it’s a waste of energy to try and ‘win’ categorisation battles about it (eg 10 reasons Trump/Farage 💯 IS a fascist). It won’t change anything. The better questions are how did it win and lose.
November 25, 2025 at 2:00 PM
As a nerd I’m obviously interested in the ideological history of fascism (and lots of other isms). But I it’s a waste of energy to try and ‘win’ categorisation battles about it (eg 10 reasons Trump/Farage 💯 IS a fascist). It won’t change anything. The better questions are how did it win and lose.
Useful overview with some interesting differences of view including Fidelity person saying what’s good for the gilt market is not the same as what’s good for the UK economy. Some Labour ppl seem to think gilt market = truth
Couple of references to energy costs in there 👀
www.ft.com/content/e01f...
Couple of references to energy costs in there 👀
www.ft.com/content/e01f...
What big bond investors want from the UK Budget
Gilt market players call on government to cut spending and steer clear of inflationary tax rises
www.ft.com
November 24, 2025 at 12:08 PM
Useful overview with some interesting differences of view including Fidelity person saying what’s good for the gilt market is not the same as what’s good for the UK economy. Some Labour ppl seem to think gilt market = truth
Couple of references to energy costs in there 👀
www.ft.com/content/e01f...
Couple of references to energy costs in there 👀
www.ft.com/content/e01f...
The Ipswich Town / Labour Party supporter combo was great to the middle of 2024, and has been pretty shite through 2025.
I need to pick things that aren’t correlated like this.
Maybe bitcoin is worth a go after all…
I need to pick things that aren’t correlated like this.
Maybe bitcoin is worth a go after all…
November 22, 2025 at 5:43 PM
The Ipswich Town / Labour Party supporter combo was great to the middle of 2024, and has been pretty shite through 2025.
I need to pick things that aren’t correlated like this.
Maybe bitcoin is worth a go after all…
I need to pick things that aren’t correlated like this.
Maybe bitcoin is worth a go after all…
Labour seems to be polling just under 20% now. Local election results (losing most of the seats they are defending) since May bear out the evaporation of support.
It don’t see how it gets better before next May’s tsunami. Also don’t see a route to leadership change.
On autopilot into a brick wall.
It don’t see how it gets better before next May’s tsunami. Also don’t see a route to leadership change.
On autopilot into a brick wall.
November 21, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Labour seems to be polling just under 20% now. Local election results (losing most of the seats they are defending) since May bear out the evaporation of support.
It don’t see how it gets better before next May’s tsunami. Also don’t see a route to leadership change.
On autopilot into a brick wall.
It don’t see how it gets better before next May’s tsunami. Also don’t see a route to leadership change.
On autopilot into a brick wall.
Reposted by Tom Powdrill
Aggregate Result of the 160 Council By-Elections (for 163 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
November 14, 2025 at 12:45 PM
Aggregate Result of the 160 Council By-Elections (for 163 Seats) since the 2025 Local Elections:
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
RFM: 55 (+47)
LDM: 48 (+18)
CON: 16 (-20)
LAB: 13 (-38)
GRN: 13 (+2)
Ind: 9 (-3)
Local: 4 (-6)
SNP: 3 (=)
PLC: 2 (=)
Explore: electionmaps.uk/byelections-...
The first Starbucks store in the US that voted to unionise did so almost four years ago. The leadership committed to collective bargaining over a year and a half ago.
It beggars belief that the company cannot negotiate a first contract in that time.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
It beggars belief that the company cannot negotiate a first contract in that time.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
‘No contract, no coffee’: what to know about the Starbucks workers’ strike in over 40 US cities
Starbucks union threatens to expand campaign as politicians like Zohran Mamdani back striking workers
www.theguardian.com
November 20, 2025 at 8:02 AM
The first Starbucks store in the US that voted to unionise did so almost four years ago. The leadership committed to collective bargaining over a year and a half ago.
It beggars belief that the company cannot negotiate a first contract in that time.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
It beggars belief that the company cannot negotiate a first contract in that time.
www.theguardian.com/business/202...
Interesting piece that personally further convinces me that invoking potent bond market reactions when making/justifying political decisions is pretty idiotic.
I also think it’s become a bit reflexive (in the Soros sense) and amplifies the constraint
www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
I also think it’s become a bit reflexive (in the Soros sense) and amplifies the constraint
www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
Meet the bond market vigilantes
Governments are now at the mercy of unseen investors
www.newstatesman.com
November 19, 2025 at 12:30 PM
Interesting piece that personally further convinces me that invoking potent bond market reactions when making/justifying political decisions is pretty idiotic.
I also think it’s become a bit reflexive (in the Soros sense) and amplifies the constraint
www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
I also think it’s become a bit reflexive (in the Soros sense) and amplifies the constraint
www.newstatesman.com/business/eco...
The US model of corpgov still embeds shareholder primacy even as it reduces shareholder rights.
We could call it a ‘shareholder welfare’ model, analogous to ‘consumer welfare’ in competition policy.
The end (shareholder returns) justifies paradoxical means (reduced rights)
www.ft.com/content/4e61...
We could call it a ‘shareholder welfare’ model, analogous to ‘consumer welfare’ in competition policy.
The end (shareholder returns) justifies paradoxical means (reduced rights)
www.ft.com/content/4e61...
US regulator will permit companies to exclude shareholder proposals from proxies
Securities and Exchange Commission could reshape corporate governance by making it harder for investors to seek changes
www.ft.com
November 19, 2025 at 7:55 AM
The US model of corpgov still embeds shareholder primacy even as it reduces shareholder rights.
We could call it a ‘shareholder welfare’ model, analogous to ‘consumer welfare’ in competition policy.
The end (shareholder returns) justifies paradoxical means (reduced rights)
www.ft.com/content/4e61...
We could call it a ‘shareholder welfare’ model, analogous to ‘consumer welfare’ in competition policy.
The end (shareholder returns) justifies paradoxical means (reduced rights)
www.ft.com/content/4e61...
Just to round this out, last year *using this data* I spotted that Marshall Wace had been shorting the company behind one of its pension fund clients.
I won’t be able to see things like that in future because GROWTH
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/shorting-s...
I won’t be able to see things like that in future because GROWTH
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/shorting-s...
November 17, 2025 at 5:13 PM
Just to round this out, last year *using this data* I spotted that Marshall Wace had been shorting the company behind one of its pension fund clients.
I won’t be able to see things like that in future because GROWTH
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/shorting-s...
I won’t be able to see things like that in future because GROWTH
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/shorting-s...
The FCA is consulting on plans to anonymise the short positions data it publishes. Currently anyone can see which firms have positions >0.5% in UK stocks.
The firm with the most short positions today is Marshall Wace.
Paul Marshall funds GB News, he and Ian Wace previously funded the Conservatives.
The firm with the most short positions today is Marshall Wace.
Paul Marshall funds GB News, he and Ian Wace previously funded the Conservatives.
November 17, 2025 at 4:02 PM
The FCA is consulting on plans to anonymise the short positions data it publishes. Currently anyone can see which firms have positions >0.5% in UK stocks.
The firm with the most short positions today is Marshall Wace.
Paul Marshall funds GB News, he and Ian Wace previously funded the Conservatives.
The firm with the most short positions today is Marshall Wace.
Paul Marshall funds GB News, he and Ian Wace previously funded the Conservatives.
A bit on my Substack about politics and premises.
Why it’s more complicated than “it’s more complicated than that”.
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/its-more-c...
Why it’s more complicated than “it’s more complicated than that”.
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/its-more-c...
It's more complicated than "it's more complicated than that"
Politics, premises, populism and the public
tompowdrill.substack.com
November 17, 2025 at 8:33 AM
A bit on my Substack about politics and premises.
Why it’s more complicated than “it’s more complicated than that”.
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/its-more-c...
Why it’s more complicated than “it’s more complicated than that”.
tompowdrill.substack.com/p/its-more-c...
I can’t remember a time when so much political commentary- both from within and outside government- focused on financial market reactions to policy.
Labour leaning into this so heavily has created a stronger feedback loop.
The gilt market is treated like an alien power we cannot risk angering.
Labour leaning into this so heavily has created a stronger feedback loop.
The gilt market is treated like an alien power we cannot risk angering.
November 15, 2025 at 7:20 AM
I can’t remember a time when so much political commentary- both from within and outside government- focused on financial market reactions to policy.
Labour leaning into this so heavily has created a stronger feedback loop.
The gilt market is treated like an alien power we cannot risk angering.
Labour leaning into this so heavily has created a stronger feedback loop.
The gilt market is treated like an alien power we cannot risk angering.
Reposted by Tom Powdrill
“The problem is that Brits want Scandinavian-style public services without the tax levels; we need to break through that barrier.”
“I hear you: smörgåsbord taxes”
“…what”
“I hear you: smörgåsbord taxes”
“…what”
November 14, 2025 at 10:12 AM
“The problem is that Brits want Scandinavian-style public services without the tax levels; we need to break through that barrier.”
“I hear you: smörgåsbord taxes”
“…what”
“I hear you: smörgåsbord taxes”
“…what”
Reposted by Tom Powdrill
As of this morning, Starbucks workers across the country are officially ON STRIKE. And we're prepared for this to become the biggest and longest ULP strike in Starbucks history.
Say #NoContractNoCoffee with us: DON'T BUY STARBUCKS for the duration of our open-ended ULP strike! $SBUX
Say #NoContractNoCoffee with us: DON'T BUY STARBUCKS for the duration of our open-ended ULP strike! $SBUX
November 13, 2025 at 11:33 AM
As of this morning, Starbucks workers across the country are officially ON STRIKE. And we're prepared for this to become the biggest and longest ULP strike in Starbucks history.
Say #NoContractNoCoffee with us: DON'T BUY STARBUCKS for the duration of our open-ended ULP strike! $SBUX
Say #NoContractNoCoffee with us: DON'T BUY STARBUCKS for the duration of our open-ended ULP strike! $SBUX
Unsurprisingly this is close to my view. I think the stakes are very high now. IMHO the Labour Right is destroying the party.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
Starmer was never meant to be Labour’s prime minister – his leadership was doomed from the start | Neal Lawson
His alliance with the party’s anti-Corbyn faction was a shotgun marriage that totally lacked vision. Now Labour is paying the price, says Neal Lawson of the cross-party campaign organisation Compass
www.theguardian.com
November 13, 2025 at 5:33 PM
Unsurprisingly this is close to my view. I think the stakes are very high now. IMHO the Labour Right is destroying the party.
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
quite an interesting piece. But my immediate reaction is that I’m afraid it’s more complicated than “I’m afraid it’s more complicated than that”.
I still think there’s a real failure to grapple with why ‘sensible’ policy is incomprehensible to many. Substack on it soon.
www.ft.com/content/ab84...
I still think there’s a real failure to grapple with why ‘sensible’ policy is incomprehensible to many. Substack on it soon.
www.ft.com/content/ab84...
November 13, 2025 at 11:47 AM
quite an interesting piece. But my immediate reaction is that I’m afraid it’s more complicated than “I’m afraid it’s more complicated than that”.
I still think there’s a real failure to grapple with why ‘sensible’ policy is incomprehensible to many. Substack on it soon.
www.ft.com/content/ab84...
I still think there’s a real failure to grapple with why ‘sensible’ policy is incomprehensible to many. Substack on it soon.
www.ft.com/content/ab84...
Genuinely don’t think Streeting is particularly notable as a communicator. He’s better than Starmer (a low bar) but IMHO not particularly charismatic.
On pure vibes I think Burnham is quite a bit better.
On pure vibes I think Burnham is quite a bit better.
Mr Streeting’s campaign seems to have the momentum of a runaway freight train. Why is he so popular?
November 13, 2025 at 7:37 AM
Genuinely don’t think Streeting is particularly notable as a communicator. He’s better than Starmer (a low bar) but IMHO not particularly charismatic.
On pure vibes I think Burnham is quite a bit better.
On pure vibes I think Burnham is quite a bit better.
💯 this >>>>
But also the bond markets argument is pure “politics of can’t” that is driving so many to want to upend the system, “saying PM has to stay because the markets say he has to” risks telling voters they and politicians aren’t in control, a major driver of current mood.
November 12, 2025 at 7:38 AM
💯 this >>>>