Tyler Meredith
@tylermeredith.bsky.social
4.4K followers 740 following 180 posts
Current: http://www.mbpolicy.com Past: head of fiscal + econ policy for 🇨🇦’s PM & Ministers of Finance @JustinTrudeau, @cafreeland & @bill_morneau (2016-22) #cdnpoli
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Reposted by Tyler Meredith
tylermeredith.bsky.social
Note - I wrote this last week before today’s Canadian delegation meets with Trump. It’s not meant to parse those events but rather what Trumpism is and the policy issues it raises and how we deal with those.
tylermeredith.bsky.social
If we are going to manage in an era of Trump we need to be clear eyed about his policy agenda - it’s more comprehensive, intellectually integrated & successful than you think.

And here’s also what to do about it.

My first MBP Intelligence piece.

www.mbpintelligence.com/blog/meredit...

#cdnpoli
MEREDITH: Trump is Winning, We Need to Start Acting Like It
If Canada is going to survive and thrive in this new era we must start acting like the world has changed, because it has.  Key Points:  * Trump 2.0 is proving far more capable at implementing his a...
www.mbpintelligence.com
tylermeredith.bsky.social
Budget 2025 is going to be one of the most significant in 30yrs.

A capital spending plan is precisely how you change the incentive structure to address productivity, and low biz investment.

This is exactly how many businesses and other govts do things.

Time to build

#cdnpoli
tylermeredith.bsky.social
Not a great outing for Interim PBO Jason Jacques.

When your 2 past predecessors break silence - it’s bad.

He needs media training and some more common sense to wait and let the Budget do the talking and then pass judgement (critical or not).

#cdnpoli #cdnecon #fiscal #budget2025
tylermeredith.bsky.social
🚨 Some cursing, some substance and a pretty rich discussion about housing from me, @mikepmoffatt.bsky.social and Ron Butler @airquotesmedia.bsky.social

Modular 🏡
Immigration
Build Canada Homes
Development $
Taxes
Moving beyond condos
+more!

📺 youtu.be/Ee11JmcbpcI?...

#cdnpoli #housing #cdnecon
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
fintwitter.bsky.social
GERMAN OFFICIALS—ONCE PUSHING FOR A SWIFT DEAL NO LONGER CONSIDER AN AGREEMENT WITH THE U.S. THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME.
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
gmbutts.bsky.social
Post “Big Beautiful Bill” ICE’s budget is almost as large as the Canadian Armed Forces.
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
coreyhogan.ca
Polls close in 99 ½ hours.
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
mark-carney.bsky.social
In America, health care is big business. In Canada, it’s a right.

That's because workers like the women and men of SEIU provide that care every day.

Together, we’ll build a better health care system — for workers and for patients.
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
aaronwherry.bsky.social
The good folks at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy have put out their report cards on the major party fiscal plans.

Liberals:
ifsd.ca/2025/04/ifsd...

Conservatives:
ifsd.ca/2025/04/ifsd...

NDP:
ifsd.ca/2025/04/ifsd...
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
kevinmilligan.bsky.social
My day is booked solid after 9am, but I'm going to post a few things here that caught my eye in the CPC platform, available here:

canada-first-for-a-change.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/20250418_CPC....
canada-first-for-a-change.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com
Reposted by Tyler Meredith
kevinmilligan.bsky.social
On the "heroic" growth assumptions that you'd need to underpin revenue growth in the CPC platform:

Mike here has done the work to show what kind of growth you'd need to assume--growth would have to nearly double.

Doubling growth would be great! Cutting EV mandates etc. isn't gonna get you there.
mikepmoffatt.bsky.social
The Conservatives are booking anywhere from $3B-10B of additional revenue each year from economic-related growth. The average year sees an additional $6B+ in revenue, associated with 128bps in economic growth.

This is a near doubling of TD Econ's growth forecasts.

tylermeredith.bsky.social
#cdnpoli
kevinmilligan.bsky.social
Here are Debt/GDP ratios for three scenarios:

1--PBO baseline.
2--LPC platform (costed by themselves)
3--CPC platform (costed by LPC)

I'll happily update with CPC platform numbers if CPC releases them. But until then it doesn't seem fair that they escape scrutiny. So, I'll go with what I have.