@umsonst.bsky.social
1.1K followers 41 following 11K posts
Earth-System Nerd
Posts Media Videos Starter Packs
umsonst.bsky.social
Only possibility I could think of is that the amounts of aerosols prevent rain to fall as the moisture condenses on too many particles. But does not work if moisture levels become too high. But also the aerosol effect should happen downstream and not over the interstate...
umsonst.bsky.social
South Atlantic had too cold SSTs for Hurricanes - so here could be the potential for a really big shift - but did not have and information via studies on this subject, besides that the SA is just too cold for Hurricanes -
From last year December - so seems to become soon possible...
umsonst.bsky.social
A few weeks later, the tentacles of Hurricane Fiona reached southern Greenland, leading to an unusual late season melt event over the southwest part of the ice sheet.
umsonst.bsky.social
In early September 2022, the remnants of Typhoon Merbok transformed into a northern Pacific extratropical cyclone, blasting western Alaska with hurricane-force winds and record-high storm surges.
umsonst.bsky.social
What is happening that they move further poleward while tropical depressions (internal moisture levels) can even now reach the Arctic regions.

Some years back one was moving past Alaska in September if I'm not mistaken bringing flooding and high temperatures north.
umsonst.bsky.social
Of further interest: if the number of cyclones increase in the western Pacific because of e.g. stronger trade winds and higher SSTs, these storms can also mutual amplify by one providing the moisture for other storms to strengthen

If you got several at the same time things can get interesting
umsonst.bsky.social
On FB a channel follows me that covers floods in Vietnam and vicinity - what I can tell its one after another

Have to ask if its really that bad

The faster warming of the Northern Hemisphere shifts rainfall north.

But its more complicated - I described the mess in four pictures:
Here you see the massive moisture inflow - currently hurricanes are responsible for the flow - they strengthen and get likely larger thereby becoming able to generate larger air mass movements Look at the western Pacific - how large the areas of above 30°C water temperature became - all these darker areas towards purple - these areas are expanding northward and eastward in the Pacific (Atlantic similar).

Important: higher SST and stronger wind create a non-linear evaporation signal. Here you see the full Pacific basin - its winds are 1.5km high a good proxy fore moisture transport.

See how the trade winds in both Hemispheres flow towards the maritime continent - Philippines, Indonesia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia.

Here the pressure map.

The look at the rotation in bot midlatitude bands. These subtropical highs are strengthening in a warmer climate same as the poleward moving low pressure systems. And the low pressure systems on the poleward flank strengthen the rotation of the high pressure systems.

And these supercharged highs, then sustain a massive moisture inflow from the east into the maritime continent. Also it could be that all this moisture leads to more tropical cyclones sometimes now non stop slamming into the Philippines.

Then you have to ad the intensifying marine heatwaves that can become massive in the NP, SP and the western Pacific.

Its seems like that the moisture inflow and evaporation rates over warmer waters is supercharging in a warmer climate.

In other words: Asia will become inhabitable in a warmer climate as extreme precipitation will become mind-boggling becoming in some seasons just madness of all these systems align to a perfect extreme precipitation season.
umsonst.bsky.social
#MAGA GROUPS LEAVING the #CULT:

1: "real" Christians

2: not buying Charlie Kirk's murder theory

3: conspiracy theorist

4: "great awakening" people

Some overlaps and clear distinctions difficult...

www.youtube.com/watch?v=bv45...
MAGA GROUPS LEAVING #maga #christian #charliekirk #thepurplerevolution #revolution @$GHGGIRL
YouTube video by Cult College
www.youtube.com
umsonst.bsky.social
This result is interesting in this regard:

Next observational prove that upper ocean stratification hinders the oceans to take up carbon as the vertical C pump is suppressed

Best: Particular organic mat. accumulates at 200m-400m depth thereby nutrient retention time increases in the upper oceans
Marine heatwaves modulate food webs and carbon transport processes - Nature Communications
A decade of BGC-Argo and plankton records shows North Pacific heatwaves reshape food webs and trap small particles in midwater, slowing deep-ocean carbon export. Impacts vary by event, underscoring the need for sustained ocean monitoring.
www.nature.com
umsonst.bsky.social
Just checked it again.

This study is deep ocean stratification - they suggest at the end that a decreasing deep ocean stratification and declining sea ice could reduce the ability of the SO to take up carbon as more would be outgassed.
umsonst.bsky.social
New preprint on the switch of the terrestrial carbon sink into a source

Its simple: ever more system show not a declining carbon uptake, but they switch into a source...

One more temperature jump to go....

#earth #climate
Decadal sink-source shifts of forest aboveground carbon since 1988
As enduring carbon sinks, forest ecosystems are vital to the terrestrial carbon cycle and help moderate global warming. However, the long-term dynamics of aboveground carbon (AGC) in forests and their...
arxiv.org
umsonst.bsky.social
Just flew over this study, and they seem to discuss a negative feedback via stronger stratification.

If I missed here something tell me...
umsonst.bsky.social
Could be a mistake - not 100% sure - the study points to stronger stratification in the SO and suppressed outgassing of subsurface CO2 rich waters via reduced upwelling.

Sea ice losses, stronger storms, and increased upwelling of CO2 rich subsurface waters and outgassing is a discussed feedback