Vitor Possebom
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vitorpossebom.bsky.social
Vitor Possebom
@vitorpossebom.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at Sao Paulo Schools of Economics (FGV). Ph.D. 2022 at Yale. Passionate about Econometrics, especially Causal Inference. (He/his)

https://sites.google.com/site/vitorapossebom/
I’m looking for podcast recommendations!

Maybe something based on history, like Revolutions: open.spotify.com/show/05lvdf9T7…

Or maybe something about economic policy? Like Americas Quarterly (open.spotify.com/show/5PCntXM9L ), but about the economy?
December 3, 2023 at 5:21 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
It is great seeing a new WP out in the wild!

👇👇👇
🚨New Working Paper🚨

Was Javert right to be suspicious? Unpacking treatment effect heterogeneity of alternative sentences on time-to-recidivism in Brazil

by Acerenza (scholar.google.com/citations?user…), Possebom and Sant’Anna (@pedrosantanna.bsky.social)

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2311.13969
November 27, 2023 at 1:16 PM
📉📈#Econsky, some of you may be interested in my new working paper about MTE with Duration Outcomes.

@pedrosantanna.bsky.social and Santi are amazing co-authors.
🚨New Working Paper🚨

Was Javert right to be suspicious? Unpacking treatment effect heterogeneity of alternative sentences on time-to-recidivism in Brazil

by Acerenza (scholar.google.com/citations?user…), Possebom and Sant’Anna (@pedrosantanna.bsky.social)

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2311.13969
November 27, 2023 at 1:16 PM
🚨New Working Paper🚨

Was Javert right to be suspicious? Unpacking treatment effect heterogeneity of alternative sentences on time-to-recidivism in Brazil

by Acerenza (scholar.google.com/citations?user…), Possebom and Sant’Anna (@pedrosantanna.bsky.social)

Paper: arxiv.org/abs/2311.13969
November 27, 2023 at 12:41 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
🚨 Call for Papers

—Conference on the economics of migration in Latin America, Mar. 14–15 in Washington

—Featuring top researchers @sandrarozo.bsky.social @dmckenzie.bsky.social @claireadida.bsky.social et al., run by HUMANS network of LACEA

—With a keynote by me

—Submissions due 🔜 December 15
November 14, 2023 at 9:50 PM
Sometimes, I think that journals do not know that many of its readers have eyesight problems...

Elsevier's font size is so small and its line spacing is miniscule.
November 9, 2023 at 12:16 PM
QT with 10 of your favorite novels

Ubirajara by Alencar

Vidas Secas by Ramos

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

Assassin’s Apprentice by Hobb

The Final Empire by Sanderson

Percy Jackson and The Lightening Thief by Riordan

I tried to focus on the novels that marked my life in some way.
November 5, 2023 at 11:23 PM
Following my theme of comparing academic and fictional writing, are there any similarities between economic papers and world building in fantasy?

Are theory papers hard world building (LoTR)? Are empirical work more like soft world building (Narnia)? What about Econometrics?
One of my pastimes is to watch videos about writing fiction. Many things that work when writing fiction also work when writing academic papers!

I think this video on editing is quite useful: youtu.be/WLAmilJx3Us?....

E.g., accept that your manuscript will evolve a lot over time!
November 5, 2023 at 12:34 PM
Probable Causation is an amazing podcast and this interview with Allison Stashko is awesome: open.spotify.com/episode/0rfq...

They discuss the effect of newly elected prosecutors and police killings in the US. It is based on this paper: drive.google.com/file/d/1LwnA....
November 3, 2023 at 3:20 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
#EconSky 📉📈

Advances in Econometrics is putting together an issue on "Econometrics of Climate, Energy, and Green Transition" edited by Eric Hillebrand, Marina Friedrich, & @smueconomics.bsky.social's Tom Fomby.

Paper submissions due Nov 30!

Info at: tinyurl.com/py9n677y
November 3, 2023 at 2:48 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
If you're studying outcomes whose distributions resemble those in this picture then this new NBER working paper may be of interest.
www.nber.org/papers/w31814
November 3, 2023 at 1:18 PM
One of my pastimes is to watch videos about writing fiction. Many things that work when writing fiction also work when writing academic papers!

I think this video on editing is quite useful: youtu.be/WLAmilJx3Us?....

E.g., accept that your manuscript will evolve a lot over time!
November 2, 2023 at 2:21 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
🙌 Our paper on "Natural Experiments: Missed Opportunities for Causal Inference in Psychology" just got accepted in Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science (AMPPS). Thanks to @mp-grosz.bsky.social, @dingdingpeng.the100.ci & a great coauthor team. Pre-print: osf.io/preprints/ps...
November 2, 2023 at 2:00 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Richard Blundell inaugurated Tilburg U's new Koopmans seminar series with a brilliant talk on wage paths, human capital formation, and labor market inequality, against the broad background of the IFS Deaton Review of inequality

ifs.org.uk/inequality/

www.tilburguniversity.edu/current/news...
November 2, 2023 at 10:37 AM
Econometrics Thread (#EconSky): "The Effect of Conviction and Incarceration on Recidivism"

Today, I want to talk about two recent working papers:
- Kamat, Norris and Pecenco (2023): bit.ly/3QjqdbX
- Humphries, Ouss, Stavreva, Stevenson and van Dijk (2023): bit.ly/3Mrrdtp

+
November 1, 2023 at 5:22 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Over the last year consumer prices rose 3.9% on average.

Individual workers experienced an average 6.8% increase in hourly wage.

Half experienced wage increases of 5.2% or greater.

25% of workers saw their wages fall by 0.3% or worse.

25% saw their wages rise by 15.9% or more.
October 27, 2023 at 10:08 PM
Portuguese uses the same word for gym and academia. But what I discovered to love about going to the gym is the exact opposite of academic life. At the gym, reward is immediate. You finish your series and you are happy that you completed a task. But academic life is all about delayed gratification.
October 27, 2023 at 9:28 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
New #openaccess article in the Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics: "Foetal Exposure to Air Pollution and Students' Cognitive Performance: Evidence from Agricultural Fires in Brazil"

(by Juliana Carneiro, Matthew A. Cole & Eric Strobl)

doi.org/10.1111/obes...
October 26, 2023 at 8:48 AM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
So what iPad app is everyone using to read and scribble on pdfs for refereeing? #EconSky
October 24, 2023 at 6:22 PM
I’m thinking about getting a tablet to read or annotate papers. If I can attach some sort of keyboard to work in a plane, it is even better.

Do you have any recommendations?
October 24, 2023 at 6:44 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Hi #EconSky, does anyone have suggestions on any reference I should look at regarding the use of the newly introduced wildboostrap command in Stata 18? I would like to understand in particular if I could/should use it as an alternative to boottest. Thank you!
October 24, 2023 at 3:22 PM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Paris School of Economics is hiring this year, open field: econjobmarket.org/positions/9954

Here's a thread for Americans who might be interested in coming to Europe about the things I wish I knew last year. TLDR: you should apply…even though EU salaries are waaay lower than the US...
October 24, 2023 at 10:06 AM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Yet another great and concise summary of the recent advances in econometric methods: This time about the synthetic control method (SCM), by @vitorpossebom.bsky.social

#EconSky
Econometric Thread (#EconSky): Today, I will briefly discuss a few recent papers expanding the synthetic control method (SCM). I will talk about three WPss: Abadie + L'Hour (2019), Grossi, Lattarulo, Mariani, Mattei + Oner (2020); Cao + Dowd (2019) and Cattaneo, Feng, Palomba +Titiunik (2023).
October 24, 2023 at 3:30 AM
Reposted by Vitor Possebom
Can we please push all journals to attach a calendar 📅 invite for the deadline for the report. #econsky

Some journals don’t even provide the deadline in the emails.

Maybe we can email the editorial managers with these suggestions? #econsky
October 23, 2023 at 10:48 PM
Econometric Thread (#EconSky): Today, I will briefly discuss a few recent papers expanding the synthetic control method (SCM). I will talk about three WPss: Abadie + L'Hour (2019), Grossi, Lattarulo, Mariani, Mattei + Oner (2020); Cao + Dowd (2019) and Cattaneo, Feng, Palomba +Titiunik (2023).
October 24, 2023 at 2:28 AM