Jason Furtado
@wxjay.bsky.social
Associate Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma. I study large-scale climate dynamics, subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting, and extreme weather. Proud RI native and New England sports fan. Opinions & thoughts are my own. 🇺🇸 🇵🇹
This supports the evidence I have seen in the ECMWF and other sources as well. This also changes significantly the risk and duration of cold for North America.
North American weather regime forecasts have shifted from Greenland High toward Alaskan Ridge. This is consistent with forecasts of the forthcoming SSW shifting toward an event dominated by wave reflection and a quick reintensification of the vortex.
simonleewx.com/ecmwf_north_...
simonleewx.com/ecmwf_north_...
November 24, 2025 at 5:49 PM
This supports the evidence I have seen in the ECMWF and other sources as well. This also changes significantly the risk and duration of cold for North America.
File this under "Not the canonical response to major SSWs across much of the Northern Hemisphere."
Much of Eurasia is forecast to be above average.
In North America, the pattern looks more like strat reflection with MJO Phase 6-8 teleconnections mixed in.
From the latest ECMWF weeklies. #S2S
Much of Eurasia is forecast to be above average.
In North America, the pattern looks more like strat reflection with MJO Phase 6-8 teleconnections mixed in.
From the latest ECMWF weeklies. #S2S
November 24, 2025 at 3:20 PM
File this under "Not the canonical response to major SSWs across much of the Northern Hemisphere."
Much of Eurasia is forecast to be above average.
In North America, the pattern looks more like strat reflection with MJO Phase 6-8 teleconnections mixed in.
From the latest ECMWF weeklies. #S2S
Much of Eurasia is forecast to be above average.
In North America, the pattern looks more like strat reflection with MJO Phase 6-8 teleconnections mixed in.
From the latest ECMWF weeklies. #S2S
The NH #PolarVortex is very weak right now, with a hint from the ECMWF of winds at 10 hPa, 60 N becoming slightly below zero m/s (i.e., turning easterly) for 1 day. Then, a very rapid strengthening thereafter. Whether this officially becomes a major SSW or not remains to be seen. #S2S
November 24, 2025 at 3:15 PM
The NH #PolarVortex is very weak right now, with a hint from the ECMWF of winds at 10 hPa, 60 N becoming slightly below zero m/s (i.e., turning easterly) for 1 day. Then, a very rapid strengthening thereafter. Whether this officially becomes a major SSW or not remains to be seen. #S2S
Record high today in OKC. Likely one tomorrow too.
But, based on what I have seen, the stratosphere will have something to say about this warmth soon.
Colder and potentially stormier conditions are on the horizon just near and after Thanksgiving. 🙂
But, based on what I have seen, the stratosphere will have something to say about this warmth soon.
Colder and potentially stormier conditions are on the horizon just near and after Thanksgiving. 🙂
November 15, 2025 at 2:46 AM
Record high today in OKC. Likely one tomorrow too.
But, based on what I have seen, the stratosphere will have something to say about this warmth soon.
Colder and potentially stormier conditions are on the horizon just near and after Thanksgiving. 🙂
But, based on what I have seen, the stratosphere will have something to say about this warmth soon.
Colder and potentially stormier conditions are on the horizon just near and after Thanksgiving. 🙂
Congratulations to my former PhD student Ollie Millin for the acceptance of this paper from his PhD dissertation!
Millin, O. T., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Subseasonal predictability of cold spells in the Central United States. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Millin, O. T., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Subseasonal predictability of cold spells in the Central United States. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
November 14, 2025 at 5:15 PM
Congratulations to my former PhD student Ollie Millin for the acceptance of this paper from his PhD dissertation!
Millin, O. T., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Subseasonal predictability of cold spells in the Central United States. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Millin, O. T., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Subseasonal predictability of cold spells in the Central United States. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., in press.
Congratulations to my former MS student Katie Giannakopoulos for the acceptance of this paper from her MS thesis!
Giannakopoulos, K., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Examining the characteristics and evolution of wintertime temperature whiplash events in the United States Southern Plains. J. Climate
Giannakopoulos, K., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Examining the characteristics and evolution of wintertime temperature whiplash events in the United States Southern Plains. J. Climate
November 14, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Congratulations to my former MS student Katie Giannakopoulos for the acceptance of this paper from her MS thesis!
Giannakopoulos, K., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Examining the characteristics and evolution of wintertime temperature whiplash events in the United States Southern Plains. J. Climate
Giannakopoulos, K., and J. C. Furtado, 2025: Examining the characteristics and evolution of wintertime temperature whiplash events in the United States Southern Plains. J. Climate
Academic & science folks: Looking for a new laptop for work. Debating between a 13" MacBook Air vs. 14" MacBook Pro. Would configure them the same way (24 GB RAM, 1 TB SSD, 10 Core CPU, 10-Core GPU).
I am only considering Apple, no PCs. :)
Any thoughts or opinions on which to get? Thanks!
I am only considering Apple, no PCs. :)
Any thoughts or opinions on which to get? Thanks!
November 13, 2025 at 5:48 PM
Academic & science folks: Looking for a new laptop for work. Debating between a 13" MacBook Air vs. 14" MacBook Pro. Would configure them the same way (24 GB RAM, 1 TB SSD, 10 Core CPU, 10-Core GPU).
I am only considering Apple, no PCs. :)
Any thoughts or opinions on which to get? Thanks!
I am only considering Apple, no PCs. :)
Any thoughts or opinions on which to get? Thanks!
It's almost "Working late at night with Delilah and Christmas music" season.
November 7, 2025 at 6:57 PM
It's almost "Working late at night with Delilah and Christmas music" season.
Reposted by Jason Furtado
Breaking news: The Trump administration is sending messages to federal staff suggesting only those who are working during the government shutdown will be paid when it ends, despite a 2019 law that guarantees pay to furloughed employees, too.
Administration hints furloughed workers may not be paid after shutdown
Agencies are sending messages indicating that workers who are on the job will be paid when the government reopens — with no mention of those on furlough, despite a 2019 law protecting their wages.
www.washingtonpost.com
November 4, 2025 at 5:22 PM
Breaking news: The Trump administration is sending messages to federal staff suggesting only those who are working during the government shutdown will be paid when it ends, despite a 2019 law that guarantees pay to furloughed employees, too.
It was a fun Halloween - passed out candy to the kids as Clark Kent / Superman!
November 1, 2025 at 1:44 PM
It was a fun Halloween - passed out candy to the kids as Clark Kent / Superman!
Absolutely wild to see these satellite estimates for a hurricane.
CI# up to 8.2 = 176kt / 882mb (satellite estimates put Melissa at Wilma levels)
October 28, 2025 at 2:36 AM
Absolutely wild to see these satellite estimates for a hurricane.
OU grad students:
- Want to learn data analysis techniques for your research?
- Want to understand and critique the methods used in the journal articles you read?
- Want to build your own statistical toolbox to use in the future?
Enroll in Advanced Statistical Meteorology in Spring 2026!
- Want to learn data analysis techniques for your research?
- Want to understand and critique the methods used in the journal articles you read?
- Want to build your own statistical toolbox to use in the future?
Enroll in Advanced Statistical Meteorology in Spring 2026!
October 27, 2025 at 3:54 PM
OU grad students:
- Want to learn data analysis techniques for your research?
- Want to understand and critique the methods used in the journal articles you read?
- Want to build your own statistical toolbox to use in the future?
Enroll in Advanced Statistical Meteorology in Spring 2026!
- Want to learn data analysis techniques for your research?
- Want to understand and critique the methods used in the journal articles you read?
- Want to build your own statistical toolbox to use in the future?
Enroll in Advanced Statistical Meteorology in Spring 2026!
The Patriots are 6-2 now. Amazing. Just hoping to get a chance to watch them on TV while in Oklahoma...
October 26, 2025 at 11:52 PM
The Patriots are 6-2 now. Amazing. Just hoping to get a chance to watch them on TV while in Oklahoma...
Inflation Report Likely to Show Sticky Price Pressures www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Live Updates: Inflation Report Likely to Show Sticky Price Pressures
www.nytimes.com
October 24, 2025 at 12:36 PM
Inflation Report Likely to Show Sticky Price Pressures www.nytimes.com/live/2025/10...
Reposted by Jason Furtado
Breaking News: President Trump is having the White House’s entire East Wing demolished to make way for his $200 million ballroom. The project is far more extensive than he initially let on.
Trump Will Demolish Entire White House East Wing for Ballroom: Live Updates
nyti.ms
October 22, 2025 at 7:40 PM
Breaking News: President Trump is having the White House’s entire East Wing demolished to make way for his $200 million ballroom. The project is far more extensive than he initially let on.
Date night - watching Book of Mormon at the Civic Center!
October 12, 2025 at 12:23 AM
Date night - watching Book of Mormon at the Civic Center!