John Bistline
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bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline
@bistline.bsky.social
5.6K followers 480 following 470 posts

Energy systems modeling, economics, policy | IPCC, NCA, Stanford/CMU alum | Views my own

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Economics 30%
Engineering 28%
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bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
There are also a range of potential non-climate benefits of state policies.

Read more here: www.epri.com/research/pro...

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
State policies can accelerate adoption of emerging fuels and technologies, including CCS, renewable fuels (e.g., RNG, liquid biofuels), advanced nuclear, and others, with the scale set by policy stringency and costs.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
Every scenario requires build rates above recent history. Solar/wind dominate new builds (though are half their levels with IRA); energy storage + gas + (sometimes) new nuclear supply firm/balancing capacity.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
The modeling suggests that data centers drive a near-term spike in growing load, and transport electrification dominates the longer-run. And in many regions, growth exceeds the past two decades.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
The analysis explores a range of scenarios that focus on impacts of state emissions and clean energy policies. We also investigate load uncertainty (data centers, etc.), exports (LNG), tax credits, and a future federal net-zero case.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 9h
We just released an EPRI report on how market drivers and state policy could alter U.S. energy investments through 2050. The headline isn't subtle: planning is now dominated by load growth and build-rate constraints.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 12h
Read more here: www.epri.com/research/pro...

If you only look at one figure, check out the capacity additions vs. history. It's the "are we staffed for this?" chart.

I'll do a longer post later today.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 12h
Big EPRI study out today on "Energy System Implications of Market Drivers and State Policy"

Short version: load growth, state policy, federal incentives, and exports are colliding. These collisions alter build rates, fuel deliverability, and customer bills.

Reposted by Scott C. Doney, Michael J. Allen, Valerie Mueller , and 1 more

costasamaras.com
Costa Samaras @costasamaras.com · 1d
🚨Our new paper led by Dr. @zialyle.bsky.social looked at how climate change poses risks to US drinking water utilities & if their bonds disclose these risks to investors. Utilities serving 67 million people have high risks, but 36% of their bonds don't mention climate: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
Climate change risk index and municipal bond disclosures of United States drinking water utilities - Communications Earth & Environment
67 million customers across the US rely on drinking water utilities that face higher climate risk than accounted for, which exposes major gaps in climate adaptation and resilience planning, suggests a...
www.nature.com

Reposted by John Bistline

chrisbataille.bsky.social
Chris Bataille @chrisbataille.bsky.social · 3d
New paper on US iron and steel decarbonization pathways from our crew based on the global NetZeroSteel model. Lead by the indomitable fgnxl.bksy.social. NetZeroIndustry.org Free access here to March 22 kwnsfk27.r.eu-west-1.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F...

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 5d
Weird. That didn't feel like anything more than a 1.6993571859512.
earthquakesla.bsky.social LA QuakeBot @earthquakesla.bsky.social · 5d
#Earthquake Update: A magnitude 1.69935718595124 earthquake took place 9 km N of Fillmore, CA at 10:52:58 AM. #micro
For details from the USGS:
M 1.7 - 9 km N of Fillmore, CA | 41175727
2026-01-29 18:01:58 (UTC) | -118.923°N 34.483°W | 4.8 km depth
earthquake.usgs.gov

Reposted by John Bistline

earthquakesla.bsky.social
LA QuakeBot @earthquakesla.bsky.social · 5d
#Earthquake Update: A magnitude 1.69935718595124 earthquake took place 9 km N of Fillmore, CA at 10:52:58 AM. #micro
For details from the USGS:
M 1.7 - 9 km N of Fillmore, CA | 41175727
2026-01-29 18:01:58 (UTC) | -118.923°N 34.483°W | 4.8 km depth
earthquake.usgs.gov

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 5d
The paper frames three levers that decide whether you get "win-win" outcomes:
1. Planning
2. Rate design and cost allocation (avoid cost shifting)
3. Demand flexibility

Read the white paper here: winwin.epri.com
Home | Win-Win Watts
winwin.epri.com

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 5d
What do recent data suggest? 2019-2024 state patterns show faster load growth tended to coincide with smaller price increases (correlation, not causation). Headline stat: 10% load leads to ~0.6¢/kWh lower prices on average.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 5d
Key test [switches to white board voice]: Incremental cost vs. average cost. When incremental is below cost of serving today's customers, added load can reduce average prices; if they are above, prices rise.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 5d
Can load growth ever lower electricity prices? EPRI's new Win-Win Watts paper: sometimes yes; it depends.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 7d
Clean energy cost projections that ignore actual financing terms are wishful thinking. Cool new paper finally gives empirical, national-level WACC for 10 key technologies across 176 countries.

www.nature.com/articles/s41...

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 12d
Two lines tell the story of U.S. coal jobs
📉 U.S. coal production: ~884M tons (1985) → ~513M (2024)
📉 Coal mining employment: ~174k (1985) → ~43k (2024)

Automation meant jobs fell faster than production.

For scale, Tesla has ~120k U.S. employees... ~3x the mining workforce.

Reposted by Rebecca Solnit, John R. Hutchinson, Cailin O’Connor

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 13d
Texas power buildout in one picture: wind (green) laid the foundation, solar (yellow) is the new wave, and energy storage (purple) is clustering around load. This is the grid transition, mapped.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 20d
This is an impressive data visualization.
olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 20d
how things stand in the Premier League for this same stat (note our man in the top 5!)
"Which players have added the most value with their line breaking passes?" graph with maps of passes. top players in order they give: Marcos Sensei, Jack Freakish, Adam Wharton, Hugo Bueno, Alex Iwobi, Pedro Porro, Bukayo Saka, Diego Dalot, Amad Diallo

Reposted by John Bistline

olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social
Olúfẹ́mi O. Táíwò @olufemiotaiwo.bsky.social · 20d
how things stand in the Premier League for this same stat (note our man in the top 5!)
"Which players have added the most value with their line breaking passes?" graph with maps of passes. top players in order they give: Marcos Sensei, Jack Freakish, Adam Wharton, Hugo Bueno, Alex Iwobi, Pedro Porro, Bukayo Saka, Diego Dalot, Amad Diallo

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 20d
Every circle on this map is a real project with steel (or lithium) in the ground or on the way. Zoom in on the Central Valley and tell me again that nothing ever gets built in California.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 20d
Great article, Noah! I'm glad this is the only climate question economists can't answer.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 21d
New Rhodium data show U.S. economy-wide emissions rose in 2025.

To hit net-zero by 2050, the pace of decarbonization would need to roughly triple.

We're now closer to 2050 than the first season of Survivor.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 26d
Let's check in on clean energy deployment in California and Texas. Texas surpassed California as the leading utility-scale solar state in 2025 with roughly 12.9 GW added last year alone. CA still has more total solar when you include distributed capacity. And lots of batteries everywhere.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 27d
Check out the original IIASA paper here: pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/40...

Here's the 2025 update: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
pure.iiasa.ac.at

Reposted by Daniel Huppmann, Hisham Zerriffi

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 27d
Your great-great-grandparents commuted about an hour a day. So did Roman merchants. So do you. No matter how fast we make transportation, people just live farther from work regardless of income. It's called Marchetti's constant, basically Jevons paradox for your morning commute.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 28d
Read it here: rdcu.be/eS7lj

This is similar to Zheng et al.: Even >3x interregional transmission only cuts costs of a zero-emissions 2050 system by ~7% (lots of substitutes: storage, siting, nuclear). Reliability benefits can be larger than pure $ savings: arxiv.org/abs/2402.14189
Implications of policy-driven transmission expansion for costs, emissions and reliability in the USA
Nature Energy - Interregional transmission is key to a cost-efficient, reliable and cleaner US grid. Senga et al. find that current legislative proposals can increase reliability while capturing...
rdcu.be

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 28d
Transmission discourse is usually: "Build more lines = cheaper + cleaner." This great new paper by @knittelmit.bsky.social and others is spicier: The big tradeoff is cost vs. extreme weather reliability, where interconnection is an insurance policy.

bistline.bsky.social
John Bistline @bistline.bsky.social · 29d
Great article, Zeke! Deep decarbonization scenarios for the U.S. also show a "merit order" for fossil fuel reductions, though there are many pathways for reaching net-zero emissions (bottom row), depending on assumptions about policies, technologies, regional resources, etc.