Seán Hanley
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drseanhanley.bsky.social
Seán Hanley
@drseanhanley.bsky.social

Assoc Professor in Comparative Central and East European Politics, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies. Personal take on politics, Eastern Europe and suburbia.

Political science 69%
Sociology 20%

Reposted by Seán Hanley

Information on how to provide assistance to Ukraine.
open.substack.com/pub/snyder/p...
The Long Ukrainian Winter
How You Can Help
open.substack.com
⚡️Orban declares Ukraine 'enemy' of Hungary.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticized Ukraine for calling on the EU halt imports of cheap Russian energy. "Anyone who says this is an enemy of Hungary, so Ukraine is our enemy," he said at a rally on Feb. 7.
Orban declares Ukraine 'enemy' of Hungary
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticized Ukraine for calling on the EU halt imports of cheap Russian energy. "Anyone who says this is an enemy of Hungary, so Ukraine is our enemy," he said at ...
kyivindependent.com

Reposted by Seán Hanley

A shift in capital away from the US has picked up pace under President Trump. That rebalancing could be good for the global economy.
Global Capital’s Break With the US Is Long Overdue
Trump’s policies have accelerated an overdue shift, as US market advantages fade and investors reassess their heavy exposure to American assets.
bloom.bg
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk became the first high-ranking official to ask the question on everyone’s mind — Was convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein working with Russia?

He added that Poland would investigate possible links between Epstein and Russian intelligence services.
Epstein's Russia connections, explained
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk became the first high-ranking official to ask the question on everyone’s mind — Was convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein working with Russia? He added that Poland ...
kyivindependent.com

This raises an interesting issue – that labels like “radical left” or “radical right” a premised on the existence of a mainstream left or right which in many West European countries – and certainly eastern Europe – no longer meaningfully exists. I suspect we’re going down this path in theIL too.

Reposted by Seán Hanley

LFI est de "gauche radicale populiste".
Mais si le PS est de "gauche", LFI ne peut pas l'être aussi, car elle revendique une "rupture".
Or, le ministère de l'intérieur ne reconnait pas la catégorie "gauche radicale".
Cela ne va pas aider JLM à gagner le 2e tour...
www.ouest-france.fr/elections/mu...
LFI s’indigne d’avoir été classée à l’extrême gauche par le ministère de l’Intérieur | Courrier de l'Ouest
[Courrier de l'Ouest] Le ministère de l’Intérieur a publié une circulaire pour attribuer des nuances aux candidats aux prochaines élections municipales. La France insoumise a été classée dans le bloc ...
www.ouest-france.fr

Reposted by Seán Hanley

No progress in Poland to ease the strict abortion ban because of anti-choice politics or reluctance in the gov't - but five years after Poland's top court gutted abortion rights, access to legal abortion has expanded a bit – only for women who learned to work within a system designed to say ‘no’.
The Abortion Ban That Didn’t End Abortion in Poland
Five years after Poland's top court gutted abortion rights, access to legal procedures has quietly expanded – but only for women who learned to work within a system designed to say ‘no’.
balkaninsight.com
That Jeff Bezos's Amazon gave Brett Ratner, someone photographed with Jeffrey Epstein and in the Epstein Files, $75 million to make a doc about Melania Trump, while he chooses to destroy The Washington Post, says about all you need to know.

Reposted by Seán Hanley

In Putin’s Orbit: The Crypto Politics of Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Thiel  – Byline Times bylinetimes.com/2026/02/03/i...
In Putin’s Orbit: The Crypto Politics of Jeffrey Epstein and Peter Thiel
The web of ties between Epstein, Moscow and Silicon Valley leads back to Steve Bannon and Nigel Farage
bylinetimes.com

“ …Russian names are all over the files.In many ways Russia pioneered the modern transnational kleptocratic class when Soviet state assets were liquidated and intelligence officers became freelancers.The collapse created new oligarchs but also a global template.” hegemon.substack.com/p/the-epstei...
The Epstein Files and Russiagate are the Same Thing
For years the culture war has assigned these scandals to opposite teams.
hegemon.substack.com

Reposted by Seán Hanley

In Russia, politics became a stage: tricksters wield power, spectacle, and reality itself. From Zhirinovsky to Prigozhin, nothing is off-limits.

Read the full blog by Prof Mark Lipovetsky, Columbia University on the UCL Europe Blog.

ucleuropeblog.com/2026/02/03/t...
The Tricksterization of Power
In Russia, the trickster evolved from a symbol of subversive freedom to a tool of power, shaping political spectacle, reality-making, and transgressive strategies, exemplified by Zhirinovsky, Putin…
ucleuropeblog.com
Before anyone gets too angry about this, several things. (1) Universities in the UK, unlike the US, are pretty much under the financial and admin control of central govt. If RefUK moves to wipe them out, as they will, then some will choose life. (1/3) www.timeshighereducation.com/news/univers...
Universities try to woo Reform as party gains ground
Serious lobbying efforts under way, with right-wing party expected to be more sympathetic to elite universities than rest of the sector
www.timeshighereducation.com

Reposted by Seán Hanley

Bellingcat founder @eliothiggins.bsky.social and Cornell University’s @cward1e.bsky.social unpack how disinformation evolved, why trust in institutions is collapsing, and what tools we all need to stay sharp in a world of misinformation. Listen back to last week's Stage Talk: rss.com/podcasts/bel...
"How We Got Here: The Rise, Backlash and Future Of Counter-Disinformation" with Eliot Higgins and Dr Claire Wardle | Podcast Episode on RSS.com
In our first Stage Talk of 2026, we were joined by Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins and Cornell University's Dr. Claire Wardle sharing their expertise on the formation of fact checking and verificatio...
rss.com

Reposted by Seán Hanley

Slovakia's most creative marginal party leader and fraudster, Mikuláš Vareha (1962-2026), passed away. With his drive and creativity, he could have been a leading artist. His enterprises, fraudulent and legitimate, echo works by Keifer, Cattelan, or Basquiat, among others.

1/

It’s hard to make hard and fast judgments but the liberal camp is less strong than the protest optics might suggest, although has edge in civic mobilisation.

The challenge is not just to win the election but to rebuild and reform captured and politicised institutions without further undermining rule of law - a “post-illiberal trilemma” that Poland’s liberal-centrist government has struggled with (see @jodemocracy.bsky.social article by Stanley/Bill).
If Orban loses the election in Hungary on April 12th to Peter Magyar it’s going to be massive for Europe and the entire democratic world. Orban largely created the populist-right formula for autocratic takeover of a democracy which was copied by MAGA’s Project 2025. 1/12
For over a year, polls have put Hungary’s opposition party ahead of Viktor Orban’s. But a big lead in the polls is no guarantee of an election victory

This didn’t prevent Miloš Zeman winning twice though! But yes seems Pavel’s newness and military background appealing to some uncommitted non-liberal voters and that Babiš was weak-ish as a prez candidate a) polarising b) incoherent and hedging on security

While Czechia’s liberal camp is good at mobilising in “firewall civil society” mode, electorally its been consistently somewhat smaller than populist camp, w key exception being Pavel’s convincing 2023 win in presidential elections. (2021 parl election turned on effect of 5% hurdle on small parties)

President’s actions are, however, a legally grey area - needing clarification by court - and may overstep constitutional powers. Macinka et al seem to have no appetite for legal challenge claiming Constitutional Court biased. www.ceska-justice.cz/2026/01/prez...
Prezident Pavel je na hraně Ústavy, míní expert. Odmítnutí Turka musí mít právní důvod
Odmítnutí Filipa Turka prezidentem vyvolalo spor o hranice pravomocí. Ústavní právník Ondřej Preuss vysvětluje, kdy musí mít právní důvod.
www.ceska-justice.cz

President’s actions are, however, a legally grey area - needing clarification by court - and may overstep constitutional powers. Macinka et al seem to have no appetite for legal challenge claiming Constitutional Court biased. www.ceska-justice.cz/2026/01/prez...
Prezident Pavel je na hraně Ústavy, míní expert. Odmítnutí Turka musí mít právní důvod
Odmítnutí Filipa Turka prezidentem vyvolalo spor o hranice pravomocí. Ústavní právník Ondřej Preuss vysvětluje, kdy musí mít právní důvod.
www.ceska-justice.cz

While Czechia’s liberal camp is good at mobilising in “firewall civil society” mode, electorally its been consistently somewhat smaller than populist camp, w key exception being Pavel’s convincing 2023 win in presidential elections. (2021 parl election turned on effect of 5% hurdle on small parties)

President’s actions are, however, a legally grey area - needing clarification by court - and overstep constitutional powers. Macinka et al seem to have no appetite for legal challenge claiming Constitutional Court biased. www.ceska-justice.cz/2026/01/prez...
Prezident Pavel je na hraně Ústavy, míní expert. Odmítnutí Turka musí mít právní důvod
Odmítnutí Filipa Turka prezidentem vyvolalo spor o hranice pravomocí. Ústavní právník Ondřej Preuss vysvětluje, kdy musí mít právní důvod.
www.ceska-justice.cz
If Orban loses the election in Hungary on April 12th to Peter Magyar it’s going to be massive for Europe and the entire democratic world. Orban largely created the populist-right formula for autocratic takeover of a democracy which was copied by MAGA’s Project 2025. 1/12
For over a year, polls have put Hungary’s opposition party ahead of Viktor Orban’s. But a big lead in the polls is no guarantee of an election victory
Viktor Orban may lose his next election
He trails in polls, but the rules favour Trump’s man in Hungary
econ.st

Magnificently steampunk
It's not an HG Well's anniversary, but the March 1908 'Cosmopolitan Magazine' (vol.XLIV no.4) has an article by Wells entitled 'The Things That Live on Mars' ("a description based on scientific reasoning ..."). So here are the illustrations by William R Leigh. [See archive.org/details/well... ]
Marine Le Pen is funded by Russia.

"meeting yesterday with the French right wingers, including Le Pen, her husband, about refinancing the National Front Party because apparently a good part of their money comes from Russia. Two thoughts here, these guy seemed like idiots, pure Ruritania"

Interesting point about bypassing versus capturing institutions, but slightly unnecessarily reinventing the wheel – there are indexes galore already - political scientists have been thinking in terms of “executive aggrandizement” for about 10 years . www.ft.com/content/b474...
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
www.ft.com
Here’s why I think this is largely misguided: that such speedy backsliding has been achieved without *the need* for “policy changes” is not an illustration of the resilience of institutions: it shows how compatible with autocracy those institutions were to begin with. www.ft.com/content/b474...
How steep is Trump’s democratic backsliding?
The erosion of established norms has been dramatic but institutions are holding up
www.ft.com
Miroslav Lajčák has resigned as advisor to Slovak PM Robert Fico after new messages emerged from Epstein files.

Screenshots show Lajčák (former ForMin & ex-president of UN General Assembly) discussing girls with Epstein.

Lajčák categorically denies claims.

www.aktuality.sk/clanok/2YbO4...
Prezidentské ambície aj sexuálne narážky po stretnutí s Lavrovom. Čo riešil Lajčák v správach s Epsteinom
Miroslav Lajčák sa v zverejnených Epsteinových spisoch objavuje častejšie, než by sa dalo očakávať pri bežnom diplomatickom kontakte. Jeho komunikácia s Jeffreym Epsteinom nebola sporadická ani výlučne pracovná – prebiehala opakovane a dotýkala sa nielen geopolitiky a medzinárodných tém, ale aj osobných otázok, žien a dievčat, ktoré sa v správach objavujú ako súčasť odľahčených, miestami provokatívnych rozhovorov. Nešlo pritom o okrajový motív, ale o jednu z opakujúcich sa tém komunikácie.
www.aktuality.sk

I am sure Goodwin will eventually return the compliment.