Alec van Helsdingen
@abmvanhelsdingen.bsky.social
genealogist, statistics PhD candidate
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
All three government parties gained over the last month, the opposition lost support, and the possibility of an overhang for National is now being considered by the model.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
December 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
All three government parties gained over the last month, the opposition lost support, and the possibility of an overhang for National is now being considered by the model.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
December 15, 2025 at 12:23 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour is now favoured to lead the next government, but this is very dependent on TPM holding electorates.
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Labour is now favoured to lead the next government, but this is very dependent on TPM holding electorates.
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Municipality winners:
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Municipality winners:
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
While Labour continues to lead, the coalition is favoured to return to government.
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
While Labour continues to lead, the coalition is favoured to return to government.
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 30, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 5, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
July 31, 2025 at 8:09 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
June 14, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
May 23, 2025 at 7:59 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
April 22, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
April 22, 2025 at 7:53 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
March 25, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
March 23, 2025 at 8:24 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 35 (-3)
GL-PvdA 24 (-1)
VVD 22
CDA 16 (+3)
D66 13
SP 7 (+1)
Others 33
+/- versus January
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 35 (-3)
GL-PvdA 24 (-1)
VVD 22
CDA 16 (+3)
D66 13
SP 7 (+1)
Others 33
+/- versus January
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
February 26, 2025 at 6:27 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 35 (-3)
GL-PvdA 24 (-1)
VVD 22
CDA 16 (+3)
D66 13
SP 7 (+1)
Others 33
+/- versus January
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 35 (-3)
GL-PvdA 24 (-1)
VVD 22
CDA 16 (+3)
D66 13
SP 7 (+1)
Others 33
+/- versus January
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.3% (-2.9)
Labour 32.3% (+2.6)
ACT 9.8% (+0.7)
Greens 9.4% (-0.6)
NZF 5.9% (-0.1)
TPM 5.3% (+0.3)
+/- since January
#nzpol
National 32.3% (-2.9)
Labour 32.3% (+2.6)
ACT 9.8% (+0.7)
Greens 9.4% (-0.6)
NZF 5.9% (-0.1)
TPM 5.3% (+0.3)
+/- since January
#nzpol
February 26, 2025 at 6:24 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.3% (-2.9)
Labour 32.3% (+2.6)
ACT 9.8% (+0.7)
Greens 9.4% (-0.6)
NZF 5.9% (-0.1)
TPM 5.3% (+0.3)
+/- since January
#nzpol
National 32.3% (-2.9)
Labour 32.3% (+2.6)
ACT 9.8% (+0.7)
Greens 9.4% (-0.6)
NZF 5.9% (-0.1)
TPM 5.3% (+0.3)
+/- since January
#nzpol
The new ethnicity estimate from @myheritageofficial.bsky.social was a big improvement for me. Dutch and English percentages in particular are what I expect based on my family tree. The only odd result is the 4% Breton. #genealogy
February 3, 2025 at 4:35 AM
The new ethnicity estimate from @myheritageofficial.bsky.social was a big improvement for me. Dutch and English percentages in particular are what I expect based on my family tree. The only odd result is the 4% Breton. #genealogy
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 35.2% (-0.3)
Labour 29.7% (+0.9)
Greens 10.0% (-1.0)
ACT 9.1% (+0.3)
NZF 6.0% (-0.6)
TPM 5.0% (+1.1)
+/- since September 2024
#nzpol
National 35.2% (-0.3)
Labour 29.7% (+0.9)
Greens 10.0% (-1.0)
ACT 9.1% (+0.3)
NZF 6.0% (-0.6)
TPM 5.0% (+1.1)
+/- since September 2024
#nzpol
January 4, 2025 at 11:22 PM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 35.2% (-0.3)
Labour 29.7% (+0.9)
Greens 10.0% (-1.0)
ACT 9.1% (+0.3)
NZF 6.0% (-0.6)
TPM 5.0% (+1.1)
+/- since September 2024
#nzpol
National 35.2% (-0.3)
Labour 29.7% (+0.9)
Greens 10.0% (-1.0)
ACT 9.1% (+0.3)
NZF 6.0% (-0.6)
TPM 5.0% (+1.1)
+/- since September 2024
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 38 (-2)
GL-PvdA 25 (-1)
VVD 22 (+1)
CDA 13 (+3)
D66 13 (+1)
BBB 6 (-1)
SP 6
Others 27
+/- versus October
more: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/netherlands/
PVV 38 (-2)
GL-PvdA 25 (-1)
VVD 22 (+1)
CDA 13 (+3)
D66 13 (+1)
BBB 6 (-1)
SP 6
Others 27
+/- versus October
more: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/netherlands/
January 2, 2025 at 6:34 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 38 (-2)
GL-PvdA 25 (-1)
VVD 22 (+1)
CDA 13 (+3)
D66 13 (+1)
BBB 6 (-1)
SP 6
Others 27
+/- versus October
more: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/netherlands/
PVV 38 (-2)
GL-PvdA 25 (-1)
VVD 22 (+1)
CDA 13 (+3)
D66 13 (+1)
BBB 6 (-1)
SP 6
Others 27
+/- versus October
more: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/netherlands/
The Schoof cabinet would almost certainly lose its majority in an election held today, but PVV would be the largest party and in a strong position to lead government for a second term.
January 2, 2025 at 6:32 AM
The Schoof cabinet would almost certainly lose its majority in an election held today, but PVV would be the largest party and in a strong position to lead government for a second term.
Ireland Election Forecast
FG 44
FF 42
SF 36 (+2)
Ind/Others 28 (-3)
SD 11 (+1)
LAB 5 (-1)
AON 3 (+1)
GP 2
S-PBP 2
+/- versus Nov 25 forecast
more details: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/ireland/
#GE24
FG 44
FF 42
SF 36 (+2)
Ind/Others 28 (-3)
SD 11 (+1)
LAB 5 (-1)
AON 3 (+1)
GP 2
S-PBP 2
+/- versus Nov 25 forecast
more details: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/ireland/
#GE24
November 29, 2024 at 5:59 AM
Ireland Election Forecast
FG 44
FF 42
SF 36 (+2)
Ind/Others 28 (-3)
SD 11 (+1)
LAB 5 (-1)
AON 3 (+1)
GP 2
S-PBP 2
+/- versus Nov 25 forecast
more details: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/ireland/
#GE24
FG 44
FF 42
SF 36 (+2)
Ind/Others 28 (-3)
SD 11 (+1)
LAB 5 (-1)
AON 3 (+1)
GP 2
S-PBP 2
+/- versus Nov 25 forecast
more details: nzelectionpredictor.wordpress.com/ireland/
#GE24