Alec van Helsdingen
@abmvanhelsdingen.bsky.social
genealogist, statistics PhD candidate
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
Much more likely they are moving to Labour, but simultaneously Labour are losing votes to National, and National losing votes to ACT and NZF.
And perhaps some of them no longer plan to vote for anyone.
And perhaps some of them no longer plan to vote for anyone.
December 15, 2025 at 2:26 AM
Much more likely they are moving to Labour, but simultaneously Labour are losing votes to National, and National losing votes to ACT and NZF.
And perhaps some of them no longer plan to vote for anyone.
And perhaps some of them no longer plan to vote for anyone.
All three government parties gained over the last month, the opposition lost support, and the possibility of an overhang for National is now being considered by the model.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
December 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
All three government parties gained over the last month, the opposition lost support, and the possibility of an overhang for National is now being considered by the model.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
Thus we now make the current government strong favourites for re-election.
We make Labour favourites to gain Hutt South, Banks Peninsula, Te Tai Tokerau and Waitākere.
But they lose one seat (Ōhāriu) from the boundary changes and are in danger of losing Wigram.
But they lose one seat (Ōhāriu) from the boundary changes and are in danger of losing Wigram.
December 15, 2025 at 12:24 AM
We make Labour favourites to gain Hutt South, Banks Peninsula, Te Tai Tokerau and Waitākere.
But they lose one seat (Ōhāriu) from the boundary changes and are in danger of losing Wigram.
But they lose one seat (Ōhāriu) from the boundary changes and are in danger of losing Wigram.
I've never used Irish Newspaper Archive before. Is there much overlap with the content on British Newspaper Archive?
November 21, 2025 at 8:32 AM
I've never used Irish Newspaper Archive before. Is there much overlap with the content on British Newspaper Archive?
We are now treating Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga as having no incumbent running at the next election. We will wait for a definitive announcement about the current MPs running again for another party or as independents.
We still favour TPM to hold their six seats.
We still favour TPM to hold their six seats.
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
We are now treating Te Tai Tokerau and Te Tai Tonga as having no incumbent running at the next election. We will wait for a definitive announcement about the current MPs running again for another party or as independents.
We still favour TPM to hold their six seats.
We still favour TPM to hold their six seats.
Labour is now favoured to lead the next government, but this is very dependent on TPM holding electorates.
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Labour is now favoured to lead the next government, but this is very dependent on TPM holding electorates.
Municipality winners:
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Municipality winners:
A GL-PvdA/CDA/D66/VVD (plus possibly others, e.g. CU and Volt) government will almost certainly be able to be formed. But that requires VVD to work together with GL-PvdA.
PVV cannot form a government unless CDA joins the coalition.
PVV cannot form a government unless CDA joins the coalition.
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
A GL-PvdA/CDA/D66/VVD (plus possibly others, e.g. CU and Volt) government will almost certainly be able to be formed. But that requires VVD to work together with GL-PvdA.
PVV cannot form a government unless CDA joins the coalition.
PVV cannot form a government unless CDA joins the coalition.
While Labour continues to lead, the coalition is favoured to return to government.
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
While Labour continues to lead, the coalition is favoured to return to government.
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
Labour has no chance, if an election was held tomorrow, to form a government with the Greens alone. Likewise ACT alone is not sufficient for National.
more details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
#nzpol
Full details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
Our forecasts now include electorate predictions for all Māori electorates as well as general electorates whose boundaries are unchanged.
Our forecasts now include electorate predictions for all Māori electorates as well as general electorates whose boundaries are unchanged.
New Zealand
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
September 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
Full details at: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
Our forecasts now include electorate predictions for all Māori electorates as well as general electorates whose boundaries are unchanged.
Our forecasts now include electorate predictions for all Māori electorates as well as general electorates whose boundaries are unchanged.