Alec van Helsdingen
@abmvanhelsdingen.bsky.social
genealogist, statistics PhD candidate
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
https://abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/index.html
We forecast that for an election held now, National has a 70% chance of winning an overhang (more electorates than seats their party vote entitles them to). They have lost ~7% of the party vote since 2023, but only look like losing a handful of seats.
December 15, 2025 at 12:26 AM
We forecast that for an election held now, National has a 70% chance of winning an overhang (more electorates than seats their party vote entitles them to). They have lost ~7% of the party vote since 2023, but only look like losing a handful of seats.
For the first time, the forecast includes predictions for each electorate. This would not have been possible without the work of @overhang-aonz.bsky.social calculating the 2023 results if the new electorate boundaries had been in effect.
December 15, 2025 at 12:24 AM
For the first time, the forecast includes predictions for each electorate. This would not have been possible without the work of @overhang-aonz.bsky.social calculating the 2023 results if the new electorate boundaries had been in effect.
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
December 15, 2025 at 12:23 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Labour 34.1 (-0.2)
National 31.3 (+0.8)
Greens 9.3 (-0.3)
NZF 9.2 (+0.3)
ACT 8.9 (+0.8)
TPM 2.0 (-1.6)
+/- versus November
#nzpol
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
November 28, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Now out via the newsletter: the final exhaustive (and exhausting) analysis of the effects of the 2025 boundary review on electorate contests.
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
theoverhangaonz.substack.com/p/the-overha...
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
It's not even 10:30 and I've already contacted 3 different parishes for help with their records today. I would so love if RC parishes would allow digitisation of their records in line with data protection parameters. It would stop me bothering them!! #IrishGenealogy
November 13, 2025 at 10:19 AM
It's not even 10:30 and I've already contacted 3 different parishes for help with their records today. I would so love if RC parishes would allow digitisation of their records in line with data protection parameters. It would stop me bothering them!! #IrishGenealogy
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
November 14, 2025 at 12:40 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Labour 34.3 (+1.8)
National 30.5 (+0.2)
Greens 9.6 (-0.6)
NZF 8.9 (-0.8)
ACT 8.1 (-0.2)
TPM 3.6 (-0.4)
+/- versus October
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Netherlands, Geen Stijl projection based on 50% counted:
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 30, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Netherlands, Geen Stijl projection based on 50% counted:
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
PVV-PfE: 26 (-11)
D66-RE: 26 (+17)
VVD-RE: 22 (-2)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Netherlands, 9:00 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
October 29, 2025 at 8:03 PM
Netherlands, 9:00 PM Ipsos-I&O exit poll:
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Seat projection national parliament
D66-RE: 27 (+18)
PVV-PfE: 25 (-12)
VVD-RE: 23 (-1)
GL/PvdA-G/EFA|S&D: 20 (-5)
CDA-EPP: 19 (+14)
JA21~ECR: 9 (+8)
FvD-ESN: 6 (+3)
BBB-EPP: 4 (-3)
...
+/- vs. Last election result
➤ europeelects.eu/netherlands
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
October 28, 2025 at 7:25 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
PVV 28 (-4)
GL-PvdA 23 (-2)
CDA 22 (-2)
D66 19 (+6)
VVD 16 (+3)
JA21 12 (+1)
+/- versus 22 Sep
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Final result of #aras25:
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
October 25, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Final result of #aras25:
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
Electorate: 3,614,450
Votes cast: 1,656,436 (45.8%)
Spoilt: 213,738 (12.9%)
Valid poll: 1,442,698
Connolly: 914,143 (63.3%)
Humphreys: 424,987 (29.5%)
Gavin: 103,568 (7.2%)
Catherine Connolly is elected the tenth President of Ireland.
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
October 22, 2025 at 12:48 AM
New Zealand Election forecast
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
Labour 32.5
National 30.3 (-0.9)
Greens 10.2 (+0.2)
NZF 9.7 (+1.4)
ACT 8.3 (-0.4)
TPM 4.0 (-0.2)
+/- versus September
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
New Zealand
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
September 1, 2025 at 10:02 PM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Labour 32.5 (+0.7)
National 31.2 (-0.6)
Greens 10.0 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7
NZF 8.3 (+0.5)
TPM 4.2
+/- versus July
#nzpol
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 30, 2025 at 7:26 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (+2)
GL-PvdA 26
CDA 22
VVD 16 (-4)
D66 12
JA21 9 (+1)
+/- vs 5 August
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
Great day at the Auckland Family History Expo, but we still have a day to go - I hope you can join us tomorrow! genealogy.org.nz/Auckland-Fam... #genealogy #FamilyHistory
August 9, 2025 at 9:44 AM
Great day at the Auckland Family History Expo, but we still have a day to go - I hope you can join us tomorrow! genealogy.org.nz/Auckland-Fam... #genealogy #FamilyHistory
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
August 5, 2025 at 8:04 AM
Netherlands election forecast
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-1)
GL-PvdA 26 (-1)
CDA 22 (+3)
VVD 20 (-4)
D66 12 (+1)
JA21 8 (+4)
+/- vs June
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
July 31, 2025 at 8:09 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
National 31.8 (-0.3)
Labour 31.8 (+0.9)
Greens 10.3 (-0.3)
ACT 8.7 (-0.2)
NZF 7.8 (+0.7)
TPM 4.2 (-0.4)
+/- versus May
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
June 14, 2025 at 9:03 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 31 (+1)
GL-PvdA 27
VVD 24 (-2)
CDA 19 (+1)
D66 11
SP 6
Others 32
+/- versus April
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
My forecasts now include predictions for the 7 Māori electorates.
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
New Zealand
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io
June 7, 2025 at 9:45 PM
My forecasts now include predictions for the 7 Māori electorates.
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
All incumbents are predicted to win re-election. We give Labour a 74% chance of retaining Ikaroa-Rāwhiti, but more than a 93% chance for TPM to win in each of the other six seats.
abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nz.html
#nzpol
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
May 23, 2025 at 7:59 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
National 32.1% (-0.3)
Labour 30.9% (-0.3)
Greens 10.6 (+0.4)
ACT 8.9% (+0.1)
NZF 7.1% (+0.9)
TPM 4.6% (-0.2)
+/- since April
#nzpol
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
April 22, 2025 at 7:57 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 30 (-2)
GL-PvdA 27 (+1)
VVD 26 (+2)
CDA 18 (+1)
D66 11 (-2)
SP 6 (-1)
Others 32
+/- versus March
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
April 22, 2025 at 7:53 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
National 32.4% (+1.2)
Labour 31.2% (-1.7)
Greens 10.2% (+0.2)
ACT 8.8%
NZF 6.2% (+0.6)
TPM 4.8% (-0.5)
+/- since March
#nzpol
It seems that my ancestor Patrick Canty was involved in quite a scandal in 1850. Without the Full Text search on FS and his petition for release from prison to the Governor-General I would have never known. Does anyone know if the Quarter-Session records for Waterford that year survive?
Patrick Canty (abt.1823-1895) | WikiTree FREE Family Tree
Is this your ancestor? Compare DNA and explore genealogy for Patrick Canty born abt. 1823 Kilmacthomas, Waterford, Ireland died 1895 Ngaruawahia, Waikato, New Zealand including research + descendants ...
www.wikitree.com
April 11, 2025 at 6:09 AM
It seems that my ancestor Patrick Canty was involved in quite a scandal in 1850. Without the Full Text search on FS and his petition for release from prison to the Governor-General I would have never known. Does anyone know if the Quarter-Session records for Waterford that year survive?
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
March 25, 2025 at 7:19 AM
Netherlands Election Forecast
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
PVV 32 (-3)
GL-PvdA 26 (+2)
VVD 24 (+2)
CDA 17 (+1)
D66 13
SP 7
Others 31
+/- versus February
more: abmvanhelsdingen.github.io/nederland.html
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
March 23, 2025 at 8:24 AM
New Zealand Election Forecast
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Labour 32.9% (+0.6)
National 31.2% (-1.1)
Greens 10.0% (+0.6)
ACT 8.8% (-1.0)
NZF 6.2% (+0.3)
TPM 5.3%
+/- since February
#nzpol
Reposted by Alec van Helsdingen
🔗 Websites vanish. Links break. But knowledge can live on with your help. Use the Wayback Machine’s Save Page Now tool to archive webpages that are important to you. 🕰️ 💾
📌 Try it now: web.archive.org/save
📌 Try it now: web.archive.org/save
March 13, 2025 at 3:46 PM
🔗 Websites vanish. Links break. But knowledge can live on with your help. Use the Wayback Machine’s Save Page Now tool to archive webpages that are important to you. 🕰️ 💾
📌 Try it now: web.archive.org/save
📌 Try it now: web.archive.org/save