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Álvaro Padilla Pozo

@alvaropp.bsky.social

320 followers 280 following 19 posts

Sociology Ph.D. student at Cornell. Spatial Demography. Heat waves. Health inequality. Climate Change. https://apadillapozo.com

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Sep 28

🚨 New paper in @SciReports 🚨 with colleagues from Mosquito Alert.

We develop a methodology to identify and correct spatial sampling biases in mosquito citizen science data collection to improve high-resolution predictive maps.

Assessing and correcting neighborhood socioeconomic spatial sampling biases in citizen science mosquito data collection - Scientific Reports

Scientific Reports - Assessing and correcting neighborhood socioeconomic spatial sampling biases in citizen science mosquito data collection

www.nature.com

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Andrew Gelman et al. @statmodeling.bsky.social · 22d

Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2025/09/16/s...

Survey Statistics: random sampling is not leaving | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Zack Labe @zacklabe.com · Sep 3

How has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat?

Younger people today are experiencing more extremely hot days during their childhood compared to previous generations.

Check out the new interactive tool by @climatecentral.org: climatecentral.observablehq.cloud/generational...

Screenshot for the interactive tool to enter year you were born and where for how has climate change shaped your lifetime of heat? In a warming world, people are experiencing more extremely hot days than they used to.

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Dr. Dominic Royé @drxeo.eu · Sep 2

🌡️ New global study: hot nights increase mortality risk — independently of daytime heat. 178 cities, 44 countries, 14M+ deaths analyzed.

Our new study published in Environment Int and led by Carmen Iñiguez and myself from the MCC Research Network.

#HotNights #ClimateHealth #climatechange

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Climate Central @climatecentral.org · Aug 26

🍂 Aug-tober?
From the Upper Midwest to the Southeast, many are stepping into refreshingly cool late-summer air this week.
🔵 Temps 10–20°F below average—a rare late-August treat

The catch? A refreshing summer cool down like this is becoming less common for future summer fun 🔽

Map of the U.S. showing average temperature anomalies on August 26, 2025. Much of the Central and Eastern U.S. is shaded blue, indicating temperatures 5–15°F cooler than normal. Stronger cool anomalies appear in the Midwest and Mid-South. Warmer-than-normal areas in red and orange are seen along the West Coast, southern Texas, and parts of the Southwest

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Jul 5

Enfatizo esto cada vez que hablo sobre calor y salud con otras personas. Si no estás acostumbradx, 30 grados pueden ser una pesadilla.

I emphasize this every time I talk about the impacts of heat on health with other people. If you're not used to it, 30C 86F can be a nightmare.

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Jun 26

Esto estaba pensando ahora... si hace un calor para cocerse ya, lo de aguantar "5 días" va a ser tremendo.

Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

World Inequality Lab @wid.world · Jun 26

🇪🇸 How is wealth distributed in Spain ?

This study, co-authored by G.A. Marrero @cmtneztt.bsky.social @juancpal.bsky.social & D.Petrov, is the first systematic analysis of regional wealth inequality in Spain.

Key findings in 🧵[1/5]
wid.world/news-article...

New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain - WID - World Inequality Database

New Spain Wealth Atlas: understanding regional wealth inequality in Spain The source for global inequality data. Open access, high quality wealth and income inequality data developed by an internation...

wid.world

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

AEA Journals @aeajournals.bsky.social · Jun 24

Forthcoming in the JEL: "Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide" by Andrew Baker, Brantly Callaway, Scott Cunningham, Andrew Goodman-Bacon, and Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna. www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...

Difference-in-Differences Designs: A Practitioner’s Guide

(Forthcoming Article) - Difference-in-differences (DiD) is arguably the most popular quasi-experimental research design. Its canonical form, with two groups and two periods, is well-understood. Howeve...

www.aeaweb.org

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Lisa Sorg @lisasorg.bsky.social · Jun 3

It felt like a cool May, but only because we're frogs in a pot of water that is gradually boiling.
@climatecentral.org

A graphic showing that the average temperature in Raleigh/Durham since 1970 has risen by 4.5 degrees Fahrenheit

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Benito Fuentes @metbeni.bsky.social · May 29

⚠️El calor de hoy no ha sido lo normal 🔥

Y este evento extremo es 5 veces más probable en un mundo con cambio climático que sin él 📈🌡️🌍

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · May 30

Kowall et al. published a multi-analyst epi study on the effect of marital status on cardiovascular disease (link.springer.com/article/10.1...). What can be learned from this effort? Check out our new commentary! link.springer.com/article/10.1...
with @mendelrandom.bsky.social & Marcus Munafò

What can be learned when multiple analysts arrive at different estimates

Kowall et al. (2025) have brought the multi-analyst approach to epidemiology, with instructive results. With this approach, multiple researchers analyze the same data set to answer the same research question. Or, at least, what appears to be the same research question. In fact, the very first paper that popularized this approach [1] has been criticized for using a vague research question (“Are soccer referees more likely to give red cards to players with dark skin tone than light skin tone?”), which apparently led the analysts to try to answer quite different questions—from a simple question about a bivariate statistical association to much more complex causal questions about racial bias [2].

In contrast, the research question passed on to analysts in Kowall et al. (2025) seems less ambiguous: Does marital status influence the incidence of cardiovascular disease? But less ambiguous does not equal unambiguous. Considerable...

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · May 16

España es de los países con la tasa más baja, pero Singapur, Hong Kong y Corea del Sur están por debajo del bebé por mujer.

ourworldindata.org/grapher/chil...

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Dan de Kadt @dandekadt.bsky.social · May 14

🚨 “Good Description” with @annagbusse.bsky.social 🚨

What sets 'good' description apart from 'mere' description?

We develop a framework for evaluating descriptive research, whether we are doing it as scholars or assessing it as readers.

Two main contributions...

🔗📄 tinyurl.com/gooddesc

good_description/good_description_ddk_agb.pdf at main · ddekadt/good_description

Homepage of "Good Description" by Daniel de Kadt & Anna Grzymala-Busse - ddekadt/good_description

tinyurl.com

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · May 8

“I’ll just run this last robustness check and then the paper will be finished...”

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Dr. Dominic Royé @drxeo.eu · May 5

[🆕RESEARCH] Increasing vegetation cover by 10%, 20%, and 30% could lower the global population-weighted mean temperature during the #warm season. These reductions could prevent approximately 0.86, 1.02, and 1.16 million deaths—corresponding to 27.16%, 32.22%, and 36.66% of all heat-related deaths.

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

DemoSoc UPF @demosocupf.bsky.social · Apr 30

🔔 Call for Interest 🔔 – UPF DemoSoc is looking for senior researchers to join through Spain’s ATRAE 2025 programme. PhD before 01/01/2018 required. 3–4 year contract + long-term stabilization. If you are interested, send an email to: [email protected]. Deadline to express interest: May 9.

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Kim Weeden @weedenkim.bsky.social · Apr 19

My colleague Cristobal Young and co-author Erin Cumberworth just released their book on multiverse analysis, a set of tools that help resolve the "garden of forking paths" and "file-drawer" problems and, in the process, improve quantitative social & behavioral science.

Highly recommend.

Book jacket for Multiverse Analysis: Computational Methods for Robust Results by Cristobal Young and Erin Cumberworth.

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

If you presented work related to climate or the environment at @popassocamerica.bsky.social , self-promote and join the list!

Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

Putting together a list of demographers working on questions related to climate change and the environment.

Reply or like this post to be added.

Reposts appreciated so we can reach as many people as possible.

go.bsky.app/MwYXxeN

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

Added. Thanks Clark! I'm relatively new to the field so I appreciate any suggestions.

Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

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Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

I was thinking about this, especially after meeting so many cool people doing amazing env demography work at PAA. I'll give it a try!

Álvaro Padilla Pozo @alvaropp.bsky.social · Apr 16

Hi. Could I added to the list? Thanks :)!

Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Michael Friendly @datavisfriendly.bsky.social · Mar 14

📊 #psy6135 #rstats Today's topic: Visualizing Uncertainty
Topics: Visualizing distributions, Error bars, Bayesian stuff, fitted curves, ...
Thx to @elibryan.bsky.social, @mjskay.com, @clauswilke.com, @cedricscherer.com and other folks I stole from.
💻 Slides-- friendly.github.io/6135/lecture...

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Reposted by Álvaro Padilla Pozo

Tim Feeney @tfeend.bsky.social · Mar 26

New paper in @bmj.com. Ever been told ‘what does your DAG say?” or “show me your DAG”, or “ok draw a DAG” and not sure what that means or how to get started? Well buckle up, because Fernando Hartwig, @neilmdavies.bsky.social and I wrote an RMR on just this topic. www.bmj.com/content/388/...

Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF

ALT: Dags Yda Like Dags Mickey Oniel GIF

media.tenor.com

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