Aaron Percival
banner
ampercival.bsky.social
Aaron Percival
@ampercival.bsky.social
aaronpercival.substack.com

Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
“Losses loom larger than gains.”
— Daniel Kahneman

This one line explains a surprising amount about why large projects struggle, even when the business case is sound.

🧵 👇
December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
We talk a lot about innovation in government. But often, real innovation isn’t about shiny objects. It’s more like a plumber fixing the pipes—real work that requires us to get our hands dirty and GSD.

🧵👇
‘Let’s push forward together to address public service challenges’: Canada CIO sets out how to make most of tech at AccelerateGOV conference - Global Government Forum
Dominic Rochon, the deputy minister and chief information officer of the Government of Canada has urged public servants to use technology to address the challenges facing the public service as he opened this year’s AccelerateGOV conference.
www.globalgovernmentforum.com
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Measuring "value" in government is tough. 🏛️

In business, success is profit. In the public sector, it is societal impact.

But how do we measure intangible things like trust, equity, or well-being?

A deep dive into Public Value. 🧵👇
Maximizing Public Value
How Governments Can Make Smarter Decisions
open.substack.com
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Every time a new LLM drops, we get a flood of charts showing how "safe" it is.

However, for leaders deploying AI (especially in the public sector), those charts may create a false sense of security.

Here’s why we need to change how we measure safety. 🧵👇

arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
Measuring What Matters: A Framework for Evaluating Safety Risks in Real-World LLM Applications
Most safety testing efforts for large language models (LLMs) today focus on evaluating foundation models. However, there is a growing need to evaluate safety at the application level, as components such as system prompts, retrieval pipelines, and guardrails introduce additional factors that significantly influence the overall safety of LLM applications. In this paper, we introduce a practical framework for evaluating application-level safety in LLM systems, validated through real-world deployment across multiple use cases within our organization. The framework consists of two parts: (1) principles for developing customized safety risk taxonomies, and (2) practices for evaluating safety risks in LLM applications. We illustrate how the proposed framework was applied in our internal pilot, providing a reference point for organizations seeking to scale their safety testing efforts. This work aims to bridge the gap between theoretical concepts in AI safety and the operational realities of safeguarding LLM applications in practice, offering actionable guidance for safe and scalable deployment.
arxiv.org
December 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
"Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it." — Daniel Kahneman

If you are feeling uneasy about the future right now, stop scrolling.

Take a moment and read that again. 🧵
December 12, 2025 at 5:07 PM
AI as Artificial Ignorance.

While everyone is panic-scrolling about AI becoming super-intelligent and taking over the world, Bent Flyvbjerg just fired a shot across AI's bow.

His diagnosis? We aren't dealing with Artificial Intelligence. We are dealing with Artificial Ignorance.

🧵👇
December 11, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Why do so many major initiatives start by declaring themselves unique, yet end with the same predictable challenges? This week’s Beyond the Status Quo explores a different path for public sector leaders grounded in evidence, not optimism.

🧵👇
Why Your Project Isn’t Unique And How to Deliver It Better
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
December 9, 2025 at 4:55 PM
Why do initiatives start strong but lose direction? Too often, teams jump into tasks before defining the purpose. Right-to-left thinking helps leaders anchor delivery in outcomes that citizens truly value. 🧵👇
Think Right to Left: Defining the Why for Better Public Sector Results
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
November 18, 2025 at 5:04 PM
Successful projects: What if the secret to finishing faster is starting slower? 🧵👇

#BeyondTheStatusQuo #PublicSectorLeadership #Transformation #ProjectDelivery #ThinkSlowActFast
Think Slow, Act Fast: The Science of Delivering Public Projects on Time and on Budget
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
October 28, 2025 at 5:14 PM
“Resilience isn’t a single skill. It’s a variety of skills and coping mechanisms.” – Jean Chatzky

🧵👇
October 22, 2025 at 4:02 PM
Why do IT projects go off the rails... fast?

This week on Beyond the Status Quo, I unpack Flyvbjerg’s analysis of 11,011 projects. IT looks steady—until it doesn’t. Once costs pass 50% over, the average blowout is 453%. That’s wild risk where the “tail” drives the story.

🧵👇
When IT Projects Go Wild: What We Need to Know
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Public service quality isn’t just about speed or efficiency. Citizens judge it by the gaps between what they expect and what they actually experience.

Those gaps can make or break trust.

🧵👇
Decoding the Gaps and Determinants of Service Quality
Unveiling the Secret to Service Excellence
aaronpercival.substack.com
September 23, 2025 at 2:07 PM
“Project managers who think their project is unique are therefore a liability.”

Bent Flyvbjerg’s research shows why. 🧵👇
September 19, 2025 at 3:17 PM
Budgets shrink. Expectations rise. Outcomes stall.

The UK tried something new: the Office for Value for Money. An agile unit that challenges spending before it happens.

I break it down in my latest Beyond the Status Quo article. 🧵👇
Spending Smarter: Lessons from the UK’s Office for Value for Money
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
open.substack.com
September 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
Budgets are shrinking. Expectations are growing.

For IT leaders, the big question is:
👉 How do you do more with less without putting services at risk?

🧵 A quick framework for smarter IT budget choices ⬇️
September 9, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Delegation is easy to preach, hard to practice. Too many of us keep doing the work instead of leading. HBR’s latest article + podcast nailed why — and how to fix it. 🧵👇

#PublicSector #Leadership #Delegation #GovOps #PolicyDelivery #SundayLongRead
Why Aren’t I Better at Delegating?
All leaders—from new managers to seasoned executives—must delegate tasks to free up time and attention for the big-picture work their more-senior roles demand. But too often leaders find themselves caught in the weeds of execution. This article helps leaders determine which work to keep and which is better left to a team member. Then it identifies four challenges that stop even those who know how to delegate from doing it successfully: (1) an addiction to the dopamine hit of easy productivity, (2) a disinclination to reject requests for help, (3) a desire to meet their own bosses’ or clients’ unmanaged expectations, and (4) a misunderstanding of what “work” should mean for a manager. Drawing on research and two decades of experience advising senior leaders, the author offers concrete recommendations for overcoming each challenge. Even for leaders with the best of intentions, overcoming these challenges will take time. However, if you stick with it and learn to delegate effectively, you’ll get much more out of your team members—and yourself, as a developer of talent and as a big-picture, strategic thinker.
hbr.org
September 7, 2025 at 11:09 PM
“Nothing is so painful to the human mind as a great and sudden change.” — Mary Shelley, Frankenstein (1818)

That truth is familiar in government. Change unsettles—but it can also be opportunity. 🧵👇
September 4, 2025 at 2:08 PM
Public services should feel easy. Too often, they feel like work.

That’s where astronauts come in. 🚀

NASA built the Task Load Index (TLX) to measure workload in space. What if we used it to rethink government services?

🧵👇
September 2, 2025 at 2:27 PM
99.5% of megaprojects fail. Out of 16,000 studied, only 0.5% finished on time, on budget, and delivered the promised benefits.

Frank Gehry’s projects defy those odds. Here’s what leaders can learn from him. 🧵👇
papers.ssrn.com
August 31, 2025 at 11:16 PM
Public sector transformation: You won’t always see the results right away.

The systems are complex. The challenges are endless.
And the wins? They’re often quiet.

But they matter.
🧵👇
August 28, 2025 at 2:08 PM
The UK reexamined the goals of procurement and made a bold shift.

At stake: billions in public spending.
The result: a model that aims to deliver social, environmental, and economic value with every contract.

🧵Let’s talk about the Social Value Model.
How the Social Value Model is Reshaping Public Procurement
Happy Tuesday, Transformation Friends.
aaronpercival.substack.com
August 26, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Your Sunday Long Read → The Uniqueness Trap 🧵👇

“This project is unique.”

We’ve all heard it: at kick-off meetings, during oversight, even in post-mortems. It feels empowering. But new research shows it may be the biggest risk factor in your project.
The Uniqueness Trap
Project managers and planners are highly prone to believing that their projects are one of a kind—partly because those that seem new and distinctive are more likely to win support. But research on 1,300-plus projects reveals that few, if any, actually are unique. The problem is, the perception of uniqueness causes managers to think there’s nothing to learn from other projects, which leads them to underestimate risk, make poor decisions, and blow through budgets and schedules. The cure is to always assume that someone, somewhere has undertaken a project like yours. If you can’t find an analogue, break your project into components, which may prove comparable with other projects. Then use forecasting and other risk assessment tools to avoid biases that undermine good choices.
hbr.org
August 24, 2025 at 11:17 PM
"It is very rare that the [Office of the Auditor General] (OAG) reports on miscues committed by central agencies, the PMO, Finance, the PCO, or even the OAG itself."

📖 Donald Savoie, Speaking Truth to Canadians About Their Public Service (p. 34)

🧵👇
August 21, 2025 at 2:07 PM
The public sector value chain holds the key to delivering better services and building trust.
Here’s how the 5 elements shape transformation in government

🧵👇

#PublicSector #Leadership
August 19, 2025 at 2:07 PM
Your Sunday long read: In public projects, speed and rigour often seem like opposites. They don’t have to be.
A new paper by Bent Flyvbjerg shows how “fast-and-frugal” heuristics can make better, quicker decisions in complex programmes.
🧵👇

#SundayLongRead #PublicSector #ProjectManagement
journals.sagepub.com
August 17, 2025 at 11:13 PM