Aaron Percival
@ampercival.bsky.social
aaronpercival.substack.com
Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
Director / @SSC_SPC / Public Sector Transformation Leader – Driving Change for Real Impact | Obsessed with Value, Cares Deeply, Gets Things Done #PublicSector #DigitalGovernment #ServiceDelivery #Transformation #GCDigital
7/
What are your thoughts? Can we fix productivity with AI and talent alone, or is structural reform the missing piece?
#PublicService #GovTech #CdnPoli
What are your thoughts? Can we fix productivity with AI and talent alone, or is structural reform the missing piece?
#PublicService #GovTech #CdnPoli
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
7/
What are your thoughts? Can we fix productivity with AI and talent alone, or is structural reform the missing piece?
#PublicService #GovTech #CdnPoli
What are your thoughts? Can we fix productivity with AI and talent alone, or is structural reform the missing piece?
#PublicService #GovTech #CdnPoli
6/ The Missed Opportunity
I would have liked to see movement on independent evaluation.
Jurisdictions like the UK, NZ, and Australia use independent bodies to justify and rationalize spending based on consistent value stakes. Canada passed on this.
I would have liked to see movement on independent evaluation.
Jurisdictions like the UK, NZ, and Australia use independent bodies to justify and rationalize spending based on consistent value stakes. Canada passed on this.
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
6/ The Missed Opportunity
I would have liked to see movement on independent evaluation.
Jurisdictions like the UK, NZ, and Australia use independent bodies to justify and rationalize spending based on consistent value stakes. Canada passed on this.
I would have liked to see movement on independent evaluation.
Jurisdictions like the UK, NZ, and Australia use independent bodies to justify and rationalize spending based on consistent value stakes. Canada passed on this.
5/ The Strategy
Ottawa is betting on tools over structure.
The plan is to accelerate productivity via digital transformation while keeping the machinery of decision-making untouched. They want modern execution without modernizing the hierarchy.
Ottawa is betting on tools over structure.
The plan is to accelerate productivity via digital transformation while keeping the machinery of decision-making untouched. They want modern execution without modernizing the hierarchy.
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
5/ The Strategy
Ottawa is betting on tools over structure.
The plan is to accelerate productivity via digital transformation while keeping the machinery of decision-making untouched. They want modern execution without modernizing the hierarchy.
Ottawa is betting on tools over structure.
The plan is to accelerate productivity via digital transformation while keeping the machinery of decision-making untouched. They want modern execution without modernizing the hierarchy.
4/ The Red Light: Structural Reform
However, TBS explicitly rejected recommendations that challenge the status quo:
❌ No to re-sequencing Cabinet decision-making.
❌ No to a full-time senior official for ongoing reform.
❌ No to an independent evaluation body.
However, TBS explicitly rejected recommendations that challenge the status quo:
❌ No to re-sequencing Cabinet decision-making.
❌ No to a full-time senior official for ongoing reform.
❌ No to an independent evaluation body.
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
4/ The Red Light: Structural Reform
However, TBS explicitly rejected recommendations that challenge the status quo:
❌ No to re-sequencing Cabinet decision-making.
❌ No to a full-time senior official for ongoing reform.
❌ No to an independent evaluation body.
However, TBS explicitly rejected recommendations that challenge the status quo:
❌ No to re-sequencing Cabinet decision-making.
❌ No to a full-time senior official for ongoing reform.
❌ No to an independent evaluation body.
3/ The Green Light: Tech & Talent
The government is doubling down on digital.
They embraced recommendations aligned with Budget 2025:
✅ Scaling AI
✅ Launching an Office of Digital Transformation
✅ Injecting private sector leadership via a rebranded Interchange program
The government is doubling down on digital.
They embraced recommendations aligned with Budget 2025:
✅ Scaling AI
✅ Launching an Office of Digital Transformation
✅ Injecting private sector leadership via a rebranded Interchange program
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
3/ The Green Light: Tech & Talent
The government is doubling down on digital.
They embraced recommendations aligned with Budget 2025:
✅ Scaling AI
✅ Launching an Office of Digital Transformation
✅ Injecting private sector leadership via a rebranded Interchange program
The government is doubling down on digital.
They embraced recommendations aligned with Budget 2025:
✅ Scaling AI
✅ Launching an Office of Digital Transformation
✅ Injecting private sector leadership via a rebranded Interchange program
2/ The Context
The Working Group was set up in late 2024 to examine federal productivity.
They delivered 19 recommendations covering performance management, talent flows, and even a proposal to resequence how Cabinet makes decisions.
The Working Group was set up in late 2024 to examine federal productivity.
They delivered 19 recommendations covering performance management, talent flows, and even a proposal to resequence how Cabinet makes decisions.
December 19, 2025 at 5:07 PM
2/ The Context
The Working Group was set up in late 2024 to examine federal productivity.
They delivered 19 recommendations covering performance management, talent flows, and even a proposal to resequence how Cabinet makes decisions.
The Working Group was set up in late 2024 to examine federal productivity.
They delivered 19 recommendations covering performance management, talent flows, and even a proposal to resequence how Cabinet makes decisions.
5/
Good project governance accounts for this.
It separates manageable risks from existential ones, frames decisions around avoided losses, and delivers early value to reduce perceived risk and build confidence.
#PublicSector #PublicAdministration #TransformationDelivery #ProgrammeManagement
Good project governance accounts for this.
It separates manageable risks from existential ones, frames decisions around avoided losses, and delivers early value to reduce perceived risk and build confidence.
#PublicSector #PublicAdministration #TransformationDelivery #ProgrammeManagement
December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
5/
Good project governance accounts for this.
It separates manageable risks from existential ones, frames decisions around avoided losses, and delivers early value to reduce perceived risk and build confidence.
#PublicSector #PublicAdministration #TransformationDelivery #ProgrammeManagement
Good project governance accounts for this.
It separates manageable risks from existential ones, frames decisions around avoided losses, and delivers early value to reduce perceived risk and build confidence.
#PublicSector #PublicAdministration #TransformationDelivery #ProgrammeManagement
4/
The result is a skewed view of outcomes:
Risks are overweighted, early warning signs feel catastrophic, small setbacks overshadow long-term value, and conservative choices feel safer even when they raise failure risk.
The result is a skewed view of outcomes:
Risks are overweighted, early warning signs feel catastrophic, small setbacks overshadow long-term value, and conservative choices feel safer even when they raise failure risk.
December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
4/
The result is a skewed view of outcomes:
Risks are overweighted, early warning signs feel catastrophic, small setbacks overshadow long-term value, and conservative choices feel safer even when they raise failure risk.
The result is a skewed view of outcomes:
Risks are overweighted, early warning signs feel catastrophic, small setbacks overshadow long-term value, and conservative choices feel safer even when they raise failure risk.
3/
That is why decision-makers fixate on negatives:
Cost overruns, schedule slips, audit risk, reputational damage, and operational disruption feel immediate and concrete. Future benefits feel distant and uncertain.
That is why decision-makers fixate on negatives:
Cost overruns, schedule slips, audit risk, reputational damage, and operational disruption feel immediate and concrete. Future benefits feel distant and uncertain.
December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
3/
That is why decision-makers fixate on negatives:
Cost overruns, schedule slips, audit risk, reputational damage, and operational disruption feel immediate and concrete. Future benefits feel distant and uncertain.
That is why decision-makers fixate on negatives:
Cost overruns, schedule slips, audit risk, reputational damage, and operational disruption feel immediate and concrete. Future benefits feel distant and uncertain.
2/
From Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979):
People judge outcomes relative to the current state. Losses carry more psychological weight than equivalent gains. A loss is felt about twice as strongly as a gain.
From Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979):
People judge outcomes relative to the current state. Losses carry more psychological weight than equivalent gains. A loss is felt about twice as strongly as a gain.
December 18, 2025 at 3:44 PM
2/
From Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979):
People judge outcomes relative to the current state. Losses carry more psychological weight than equivalent gains. A loss is felt about twice as strongly as a gain.
From Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979):
People judge outcomes relative to the current state. Losses carry more psychological weight than equivalent gains. A loss is felt about twice as strongly as a gain.
5/
It’s like asking how much car insurance is worth to you: it's hard to quantify the value until you crash. But if we want a digital government that actually works, we have to be willing to fix the foundation first.
#GovTech #PublicService #DigitalTransformation #Canada
It’s like asking how much car insurance is worth to you: it's hard to quantify the value until you crash. But if we want a digital government that actually works, we have to be willing to fix the foundation first.
#GovTech #PublicService #DigitalTransformation #Canada
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
5/
It’s like asking how much car insurance is worth to you: it's hard to quantify the value until you crash. But if we want a digital government that actually works, we have to be willing to fix the foundation first.
#GovTech #PublicService #DigitalTransformation #Canada
It’s like asking how much car insurance is worth to you: it's hard to quantify the value until you crash. But if we want a digital government that actually works, we have to be willing to fix the foundation first.
#GovTech #PublicService #DigitalTransformation #Canada
4/
IMO, the real value right now is in the unsexy work: retiring legacy systems, updating core platforms, & cleaning up data.
It’s hard & expensive. And honestly? We struggle to sell the ROI because it’s mostly about risk reduction, avoiding catastrophe rather than adding flash.
IMO, the real value right now is in the unsexy work: retiring legacy systems, updating core platforms, & cleaning up data.
It’s hard & expensive. And honestly? We struggle to sell the ROI because it’s mostly about risk reduction, avoiding catastrophe rather than adding flash.
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
4/
IMO, the real value right now is in the unsexy work: retiring legacy systems, updating core platforms, & cleaning up data.
It’s hard & expensive. And honestly? We struggle to sell the ROI because it’s mostly about risk reduction, avoiding catastrophe rather than adding flash.
IMO, the real value right now is in the unsexy work: retiring legacy systems, updating core platforms, & cleaning up data.
It’s hard & expensive. And honestly? We struggle to sell the ROI because it’s mostly about risk reduction, avoiding catastrophe rather than adding flash.
3/
It’s tempting to get swept up in the excitement of AI & new digital tools. But as Rochon pointed out, you can’t just layer new tech on top of old, broken foundations and expect a different result.
The "shiny" stuff simply won't work if the underlying structure is crumbling.
It’s tempting to get swept up in the excitement of AI & new digital tools. But as Rochon pointed out, you can’t just layer new tech on top of old, broken foundations and expect a different result.
The "shiny" stuff simply won't work if the underlying structure is crumbling.
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
3/
It’s tempting to get swept up in the excitement of AI & new digital tools. But as Rochon pointed out, you can’t just layer new tech on top of old, broken foundations and expect a different result.
The "shiny" stuff simply won't work if the underlying structure is crumbling.
It’s tempting to get swept up in the excitement of AI & new digital tools. But as Rochon pointed out, you can’t just layer new tech on top of old, broken foundations and expect a different result.
The "shiny" stuff simply won't work if the underlying structure is crumbling.
2/
I saw a recent talk by Canada’s CIO, Dominic Rochon, that reminded me of a stat from my time in that org: only 28% of the federal government’s IT systems are currently considered "healthy."
(The AG flagged this about two years ago, too.) It’s a tough reality check.
I saw a recent talk by Canada’s CIO, Dominic Rochon, that reminded me of a stat from my time in that org: only 28% of the federal government’s IT systems are currently considered "healthy."
(The AG flagged this about two years ago, too.) It’s a tough reality check.
December 17, 2025 at 5:02 PM
2/
I saw a recent talk by Canada’s CIO, Dominic Rochon, that reminded me of a stat from my time in that org: only 28% of the federal government’s IT systems are currently considered "healthy."
(The AG flagged this about two years ago, too.) It’s a tough reality check.
I saw a recent talk by Canada’s CIO, Dominic Rochon, that reminded me of a stat from my time in that org: only 28% of the federal government’s IT systems are currently considered "healthy."
(The AG flagged this about two years ago, too.) It’s a tough reality check.
6/
I have opened up the archives on Beyond the Status Quo to deep dive into these frameworks (and shared my full white paper on the topic).
If you want to build better business cases, check it out.
#PublicSector #GovTech #Policy
I have opened up the archives on Beyond the Status Quo to deep dive into these frameworks (and shared my full white paper on the topic).
If you want to build better business cases, check it out.
#PublicSector #GovTech #Policy
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
6/
I have opened up the archives on Beyond the Status Quo to deep dive into these frameworks (and shared my full white paper on the topic).
If you want to build better business cases, check it out.
#PublicSector #GovTech #Policy
I have opened up the archives on Beyond the Status Quo to deep dive into these frameworks (and shared my full white paper on the topic).
If you want to build better business cases, check it out.
#PublicSector #GovTech #Policy
5/
Tracking performance does not end when the project is approved.
We need Benefits Realization frameworks to ensure promises are kept.
It is not enough to be on time and on budget. We need to know if the intended societal benefit actually happened.
Tracking performance does not end when the project is approved.
We need Benefits Realization frameworks to ensure promises are kept.
It is not enough to be on time and on budget. We need to know if the intended societal benefit actually happened.
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
5/
Tracking performance does not end when the project is approved.
We need Benefits Realization frameworks to ensure promises are kept.
It is not enough to be on time and on budget. We need to know if the intended societal benefit actually happened.
Tracking performance does not end when the project is approved.
We need Benefits Realization frameworks to ensure promises are kept.
It is not enough to be on time and on budget. We need to know if the intended societal benefit actually happened.
4/
The classic metric for value was the "3 Es":
• Economy
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness
But modern governance requires a fourth: Equity.
Are benefits distributed fairly? If we are efficient but leave people behind, have we really created value?
The classic metric for value was the "3 Es":
• Economy
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness
But modern governance requires a fourth: Equity.
Are benefits distributed fairly? If we are efficient but leave people behind, have we really created value?
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
4/
The classic metric for value was the "3 Es":
• Economy
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness
But modern governance requires a fourth: Equity.
Are benefits distributed fairly? If we are efficient but leave people behind, have we really created value?
The classic metric for value was the "3 Es":
• Economy
• Efficiency
• Effectiveness
But modern governance requires a fourth: Equity.
Are benefits distributed fairly? If we are efficient but leave people behind, have we really created value?
3/
To do this, we need to move beyond simple cost-benefit analysis.
Enter SROI (Social Return on Investment).
This framework puts a monetary value on social outcomes—like reduced unemployment or better health—to show the true return on public spending.
To do this, we need to move beyond simple cost-benefit analysis.
Enter SROI (Social Return on Investment).
This framework puts a monetary value on social outcomes—like reduced unemployment or better health—to show the true return on public spending.
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
3/
To do this, we need to move beyond simple cost-benefit analysis.
Enter SROI (Social Return on Investment).
This framework puts a monetary value on social outcomes—like reduced unemployment or better health—to show the true return on public spending.
To do this, we need to move beyond simple cost-benefit analysis.
Enter SROI (Social Return on Investment).
This framework puts a monetary value on social outcomes—like reduced unemployment or better health—to show the true return on public spending.
2/
The "Business Case" is often treated as just a hurdle to get funding. It should be a roadmap for value.
A strong case links specific investments to long-term societal outcomes, not just immediate outputs.
It needs to ask: "How does this actually improve lives?
The "Business Case" is often treated as just a hurdle to get funding. It should be a roadmap for value.
A strong case links specific investments to long-term societal outcomes, not just immediate outputs.
It needs to ask: "How does this actually improve lives?
December 16, 2025 at 3:07 PM
2/
The "Business Case" is often treated as just a hurdle to get funding. It should be a roadmap for value.
A strong case links specific investments to long-term societal outcomes, not just immediate outputs.
It needs to ask: "How does this actually improve lives?
The "Business Case" is often treated as just a hurdle to get funding. It should be a roadmap for value.
A strong case links specific investments to long-term societal outcomes, not just immediate outputs.
It needs to ask: "How does this actually improve lives?
8/
Read the full preprint here: arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
For more insights on AI governance and public administration, give me a follow.
#AI #GovTech #RiskManagement #ArtificialIntelligence
Read the full preprint here: arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
For more insights on AI governance and public administration, give me a follow.
#AI #GovTech #RiskManagement #ArtificialIntelligence
December 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
8/
Read the full preprint here: arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
For more insights on AI governance and public administration, give me a follow.
#AI #GovTech #RiskManagement #ArtificialIntelligence
Read the full preprint here: arxiv.org/html/2507.09...
For more insights on AI governance and public administration, give me a follow.
#AI #GovTech #RiskManagement #ArtificialIntelligence
7/
The Bottom Line
Safety isn't a product you buy off the shelf. It is a system you build and monitor.
Move away from checking boxes and start context-aware red teaming. Measure what actually matters to your mission.
The Bottom Line
Safety isn't a product you buy off the shelf. It is a system you build and monitor.
Move away from checking boxes and start context-aware red teaming. Measure what actually matters to your mission.
December 14, 2025 at 3:07 PM
7/
The Bottom Line
Safety isn't a product you buy off the shelf. It is a system you build and monitor.
Move away from checking boxes and start context-aware red teaming. Measure what actually matters to your mission.
The Bottom Line
Safety isn't a product you buy off the shelf. It is a system you build and monitor.
Move away from checking boxes and start context-aware red teaming. Measure what actually matters to your mission.