Arman Kafai
@armankafai.bsky.social
1.1K followers 400 following 870 posts
Current: 🚙 Data Analyst Contributor: ✍️ @backheeled.com Prev: ⚽️ Data w/ FC Dallas ☄️UT Dallas ‘19/20 BS/MS Economics https://footyanalyticmusings.substack.com/
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armankafai.bsky.social
I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
armankafai.bsky.social
Why am I highlighting the East? Nashville/Orlando are gonna be lower seeded teams. Miami ignore their xGD… they have Messi.

But NYCFC wasn’t too shabby either. All are either gonna be lower seeds or the four seed. Gonna be tough
armankafai.bsky.social
Love this from Tony. I’m looking at the 7 teams that have a positive xGD vs playoff teams. Seems like most teams will beat bad teams, but very few teams will consistently perform vs playoff level teams.

The East is looking like a bloodbath
tonyelhabr.bsky.social
lmk if this is along the lines of what you're looking for. happy to iterate
Reposted by Arman Kafai
armankafai.bsky.social
I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
armankafai.bsky.social
Marcel Hartel was a great player joining MLS from St. Pauli and again, like we say with Musa, has been wasted at St. Louis. Legit a great player imo that’s been stuck on mediocre STL team
armankafai.bsky.social
I analyzed some of the more interesting storylines from the latest roster profiles and GAM release as we enter the end of the MLS regular season. How will the new rules about carrying over GAM impact teams in 2026? Seems like a bit more than we expected.
GAM makes the world go round
How the September 2025 GAM Release sets up teams for the 2026 off-season
open.substack.com
armankafai.bsky.social
That’s totally fair. Just watched a ton of Dallas games and without him they’d be wooden spoon hands down. His goals added isn’t crazy as well relative to the other guys but still top 30 (and I’d wager higher as of recently)
armankafai.bsky.social
Is there a clear consensus on how to build a roster? Not yet, but going into our first full year, we're going to see how the GAM that wasn't used due to teams using the GAM received from the model will impact roster construction in 2026.
armankafai.bsky.social
One thing that I've been looking at is the roster construction mechanisms for the teams that are in the Supporters' Shield Race.

-PHI (3+3 but could be 2+4)
-CIN (2+4)
-SD (2+4)
-VAN (2+4)
-NYC (2+4)
-MIA (3+3)
-MIN (2+4)
-CHA (2+4)
-NSH (3+3)
-LAFC (2+4)

7/10 are 2+4
armankafai.bsky.social
Alright I’m scratching what I’m saying. He should be in the MVP race. I don’t care about where Dallas is on the table. Had two key moments in that game that led to both goals for Dallas. It’s unreal
Reposted by Arman Kafai
joeclowery.bsky.social
I'm sure FC Dallas would want a big-time fee, but I'd be shocked if MLS teams weren't sniffing around Petar Musa this winter in hopes of acquiring him in a cashfer.
armankafai.bsky.social
If FC Dallas wasn’t so low in the table, we’d be talking about Petar Musa as an MVP candidate. When it comes to the definition of MVP for a team, he’s almost the perfect example. Leads the team in scoring by an insane margin, leads them in npxG, basically leads the team in xA.
armankafai.bsky.social
FCD would be struggling without him. But one of his impacts is just his consistent work rate. On Julio’s goal Saturday, he won a header off a double team, which kept the ball alive for the goal. It’s crazy that Dallas has struggled like they have over the last two seasons with him there
armankafai.bsky.social
If FC Dallas wasn’t so low in the table, we’d be talking about Petar Musa as an MVP candidate. When it comes to the definition of MVP for a team, he’s almost the perfect example. Leads the team in scoring by an insane margin, leads them in npxG, basically leads the team in xA.
armankafai.bsky.social
Assume that every club will carry this total over to 2026.

Holy shit Minnesota
mls-pr.bsky.social
The club roster profiles have been updated to now include the amount of GAM remaining for each club in 2025.

MLS eliminated expiration dates for GAM earlier this year (apart from GAM received when selecting the U22 Initiative Roster Construction Model).
mlssoccer.box.com/s/c2ok055zmd...
Reposted by Arman Kafai
catabush.com
I uhhhh... have a podcast now (it's about women's soccer though so it's ok)
bteampodcast.bsky.social
Our first episode is up! Immediate reactions as the KC Current defeat Seattle at home to lift the NWSL Shield. Plus, we discuss the teams vying for spots in this year's playoffs, including the Wave, Gotham, Courage, and more.

Listen on Spotify and Apple podcasts.

open.spotify.com/episode/6VRn...
Current Clinch the Shield + the Playoff Race is On!
open.spotify.com
armankafai.bsky.social
Add a game-winning assist to the list
armankafai.bsky.social
Austin FC at the death! Holy smokes, what a last couple of games for CJ Fodrey. GW goal vs SKC and now the goal to put them through to the USOC Final.
armankafai.bsky.social
Latte Lath is on $4M. Musa is on $2.5M. Let’s say Musa wants to match that to move, so the same
armankafai.bsky.social
Okay maybe not exactly $23M but slightly higher than the $20M. Player outside of MLS, maybe from another good league in Europe
armankafai.bsky.social
Hypothetical I’m throwing out to the BlueSky MLS community. Would you rather sign Petar Musa away from FC Dallas for $20M or sign a forward from another league for $23M (think Latte Lath like profile)?
Reposted by Arman Kafai
armankafai.bsky.social
Miles Robinson signed an extension last week that reportedly put him into the Designated Player slot. The reaction around the deal has been pretty mixed and people have been pointing out the constraints Cincinnati will now have. But does it really hurt them? My thoughts for FAM:
The mechanics behind Miles Robinson's extension
Why Robinson's extension may actually help Cincy's cap number instead of hinder it
open.substack.com
Reposted by Arman Kafai
backheeled.com
MLS is a league known for its tactical variety.

Which defensive approaches, then, have excelled across the league in 2025?

@cata-bush.bsky.social examines the data and film to uncover elite units in MLS that prove there's no one right way to defend.

Read ⤵️
www.backheeled.com/mls-best-def...
The MLS teams charting their own path to defensive excellence
Here are the elite units proving there is no one right way to defend.
www.backheeled.com
armankafai.bsky.social
Austin FC at the death! Holy smokes, what a last couple of games for CJ Fodrey. GW goal vs SKC and now the goal to put them through to the USOC Final.