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Ben Brindle

@benbrindle.bsky.social

700 followers 110 following 140 posts

Researcher at the Migration Observatory, University of Oxford. #itfc fan, for my sins. For media enquiries, please contact Rob McNeil.

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Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 2d

I quit around the same time as you – glad it's not just me finding this. I wondered if it's because my initial motivation has faded

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 3d

Pride of Anglia #itfc

Dan Glozier @glozier.bsky.social · 3d

MARCELINO NUNEZ, I LOVE THAT FROM YOU! #ITFC 🚜🚜🚜

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 4d

Norwich fans everywhere sounding like a cabinet minister in an unpopular government on the eve of local elections, playing down expectations.

Then they'll nick a draw and act as if it's some incredible feat and not a perfectly plausible outcome #itfc

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.

A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

But we haven't seen anything which indicates that non-citizens are more/less likely to be convicted multiple times in a year.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

The prison figures count individuals, whereas the conviction figures count convictions (i.e., someone could have multiple in a year).

I'm not sure how that will affect the conviction figs bc we don't have info beyond that in the piece.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

Conviction and imprisonment rates vary widely by nationality.

We can be confident that some smaller nationalities (e.g. Albanians) are overrepresented, but we can't say how much, because the UK's population stats are highly uncertain.

However, we can estimate this for larger non-citizen groups.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

Foreign nationals are overrepresented among drug and fraud offenders, while underrepresented for violent offences & robbery.

For sexual offences, it's more complicated. Non-citizens are overrepresented for cautions/convictions but underrepresented in the prison population.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 8d

Overall, incarceration and conviction rates are broadly similar for foreign and British nationals. When controlling for age and sex, non-citizens are less likely to be incarcerated than Brits.

A big caveat, though: current population statistics aren't very reliable.

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Jonn Elledge @jonnelledge.bsky.social · 20d

Do you have a lot of annoying admin tasks or household chores you need to accomplish, but never seem to find the time for? Then may I suggest: setting aside a day to do nothing but write, you will be amazed at how many such tasks you can accomplish.

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Jon Featonby @jonfeatonby.bsky.social · 23d

Good question at Home Office questions from @lisasmartmp.bsky.social on the move-on period for refugees, after the part suspension of the pilot giving 56 days instead of 28. The Home Secretary said they were following the evidence of what works - but the evaluation of the pilot is still underway.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 26d

Definitely some of the cask ones – you won't catch me anywhere near a bitter. But the carbonated IPAs are like lager, just with some extra taste

Enjoy España, too!

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · 26d

@mark-heath.bsky.social @alexnljones.bsky.social The listeners have decided – Heineken is poor, but then so is Corona

Get some IPAs in the rotation!

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 29d

The government has announced key changes to its refugee family reunion policy. Our Q&A explains what’s changed, who’s affected, the possible consequences, and how the UK compares with other countries in Europe. Read more 👇

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

Q&A: The UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion - Migration Observatory

This Q&A answers some common questions on the UK’s new approach to refugee family reunion.

migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Sep 5

I'm biased, but our new Q&A on housing for asylum seekers and refugees is an incredibly interesting read.

In the Q&A, we cover the following:

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Sep 3

Terrible news. I'd never say this to his face, but Melvyn's dulcet tones have helped me get off to sleep more times than I can count

Scott Bryan @scottygb.bsky.social · Sep 3

Melvyn Bragg has decided to stand down as host of In Our Time, the BBC says.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 21

This is a great article, Alex. Useful to know what's going on with other clubs, especially early in the season when it's not clear who we should be thinking about.

Which of Stoke/Boro/WB has the best chance of being a surprise rival of Ips, if any?

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · Aug 19

65% of the increase in the UK’s population between 2004 and 2023 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 104% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration.

See our updated population growth briefing for more.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 17

Happy birthday to the big man! Always funny hearing him snore in the background of a KOA pod

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Danny Kodicek (but, y'know, spooky) @dannykodicek.bsky.social · Aug 11

@gralefrit.bsky.social You have to see these! A friend of mine has been collating a series of images entitled "Things my students have written turned into Philomena Cunk quotes" and they're just glorious.

Philomena Cunk against a collection of classical statues. "Antigone's death is even more tragic than it actually is, which makes her a tragic hero"

Philomena Cunk looking thoughtful. "Goya continued to paint tapestries until 1792 when serious illness left him dead for life"

Philomena Cunk looking thoughtfully into the distance. "Society is slowly becoming more contemporary now"

Philomena Cunk looking into camera on a beach. "Diderot's Tahiti represents a typical male fantasy in which attractive young women are eager to engage in sexual activity with the French"

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 13

They were indeed, and they're counted in all industries (not on the default view for this chart because they're not mentioned in the text)

Take a look at Figures 4 and 5 in the briefing to see Finance and Insurance grants/apps.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 12

Wow, that's quite something. I didn't realise in-country grants were quite that high

They might be reluctant, but I'll certainly be trying an FOI anyway

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 12

What I found most interesting when writing this update was the increased number of students moving to graduate visas, likely a result of more restrictive Skilled Worker criteria.

Another 75,000 Graduate visas were granted in the first three months of 2025 alone.

Reposted by Ben Brindle

Stephen Evans @stephenevans.bsky.social · Aug 12

1. Labour market continues to cool. Payroll employment trending down & vacancies falling for 37th month in a row. Not going off a cliff, but definite downward trend. Average pay growth easing. But at 5% (ex bonuses) still above level consistent with inflation target, given weak productivity growth.

Ben Brindle @benbrindle.bsky.social · Aug 5

This is a really interesting thread on public attitudes towards migration.

YouGov @yougov.co.uk · Aug 5

A recent YouGov poll found 45% support for admitting no new migrants and requiring large numbers to leave - but a deeper look suggests that most of this group don't actually want to remove those who make up the bulk of migrants to the UK 🧵/

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...