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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Andrew Mercer @awmercer.bsky.social · Sep 4

Expertise is having fucked up in enough different ways that you become able to anticipate it.

Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · 29d

We need to think more about communication in this context, that is for sure. Clinical staff should not say "your risk is 21%". Just giving an 95% CI in layman terms does not do the job. The uncertainty complicates things quite a lot imo, not sure how to best tackle that to be honest.

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Aug 29

In our latest work, we show that risk estimates for patients are HUGELY uncertain due to model, data, and population uncertainty. Even for well performing models (c statistic, calibration, utility) based on large N.
@laure_wynants @ESteyerberg @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social

arxiv.org/abs/2506.17141

The fundamental problem of risk prediction for individuals: health AI, uncertainty, and personalized medicine

Background: Clinical prediction models for a health condition are commonly evaluated regarding performance for a population, although decisions are made for individuals. The classic view relates uncer...

arxiv.org

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Aug 26

Universities love open science
Small print: unless money is involved

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Dorothy Bishop @deevybee.bsky.social · Aug 24

Huge variability documented in how publishers respond when informed about a problematic body of work by a research group. www.jclinepi.com/article/S089...
#publishers #retractions

Bar chart showing % of articles retracted, with expression of concern, or no action from different publishers. 100% no action from Elsevier and Wolters Kluwer; 100% retraction from Taylor and Francis.

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Aug 1

We recently had 5 review reports for a submission. While the comments were reasonable, the 5 reports were all very similar in the issues they raised. Suspicious.

Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Triad sou. @triadsou.bsky.social · Jul 25

Multiple Imputation of Missing Covariates When Using the Fine–Gray Model. Edouard F. Bonneville, Jan Beyersmann, Ruth H. Keogh, Jonathan W. Bartlett, Tim P. Morris, Nicola Polverelli, Liesbeth C. de Wreede, Hein Putter. Statistics in Medicine. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/...

Multiple Imputation of Missing Covariates When Using the Fine–Gray Model

The Fine–Gray model for the subdistribution hazard is commonly used for estimating associations between covariates and competing risks outcomes. When there are missing values in the covariates includ...

onlinelibrary.wiley.com

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Jul 24

You could park many of them in the Journal of Unplanned Interim Analyses.

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · Jul 14

Seconded.

Any time someone uses this term, make sure they explain exactly what they mean. If they can't, they are obviously trying to bullshit you.

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Samuel Moore @samuelmoore.org · Jul 13

“Volume is a bad driver,” [Sir Mark Walport] said. “The incentive should be quality, not quantity. It’s about re-engineering the system in a way that encourages good research from beginning to end.”

www.theguardian.com/science/2025...

Quality of scientific papers questioned as academics ‘overwhelmed’ by the millions published

Widespread mockery of AI-generated rat with giant penis in one paper brings problem to public attention

www.theguardian.com

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Jun 20

Graeme is clearly on to something here!

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Ricki☕🪄 @rickihirsch.bsky.social · Jun 17

What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Data isn't objective and researchers have innumerable ways to put their thumbs on the scale. Many don't understand statistics well enough to realize they're doing it.

Aaron Sofaer ✍️🏳️‍⚧️ @aaronsofaer.bsky.social · Jun 16

What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

Almost all of the bugs and problems and breakage in the software you use is known to the engineers, we just aren't allowed to fix it. Gotta ship new features.

Margaret A-Spelle 🎃 @margaretadelle.bsky.social · Jun 15

What is common knowledge in your field, but shocks outsiders?

The number of parents that don't care much about their kids and/or have very thinly veiled resentment against them is much higher than most people think.

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Jun 13

Yes! Some years ago, The Group of Biomedical Sciences at mu uni said in front of an auditorium with many young and local researchers that they wanted to invest more in superstar transfers and compared it with football transfers.

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Richard Riley (R²) @richarddriley.bsky.social · Jun 2

**New Lancet DH paper**

"Importance of sample size on the quality & utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare"

- for broad audience
- explains why inadequate SS harms #AI model training, evaluation & performance
- pushback to claims SS irrelevant to AI research

👇
tinyurl.com/yrje52fn

Importance of sample size on the quality and utility of AI-based prediction models for healthcare

Rigorous study design and analytical standards are required to generate reliable findings in healthcare from artificial intelligence (AI) research. On…

www.sciencedirect.com

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · May 14

Yes.... somehow they always get it wrong. You cannot get to those levels in science and politics and get it right.

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · May 12

yes, subscription model. Fee calculated based on character count of the main paper, including refs, tables, figs. Sounds a bit odd in this digital age.

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · May 11

I recently had a paper in a journal where the fee for open access was lower than the fee for closed access. Is that common? @grahamkendall.bsky.social

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Oliver Alexander @oalexanderdk.bsky.social · Mar 29

Why aren’t you wearing a suit?

Have you said “Thank you” to Greenland and Denmark for allowing you to have a base on Greenland?

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Mar 26

Great question! It seems that universities would (secretly?) say yes.

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Mar 13

Oh, there's an English version as well! DW reports about misconduct at Max Planck Institutes: www.youtube.com/watch?v=n5nE...

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Mar 24

PROBAST+AI is out!

www.bmj.com/content/388/...

PROBAST+AI: an updated quality, risk of bias, and applicability assessment tool for prediction models using regression or artificial intelligence methods

The Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) is used to assess the quality, risk of bias, and applicability of prediction models or algorithms and of prediction model/algorithm studies....

www.bmj.com

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Reposted by Ben Van Calster

Lasai Barreñada, "Lasso" @lasaibarrenada.bsky.social · Mar 23

I will be presenting our recent work on individual risk estimation uncertainty at ENAR in New Orleans. Come say hi!

Work with @benvancalster.bsky.social @laurewynants.bsky.social #DoranneThomassen #EwoutSteyerberg

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Mar 18

Academia says 'no novelty no glory no funding'

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Mar 17

Following the footsteps of Bink Marino!

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Ben Van Calster @benvancalster.bsky.social · Mar 16

Quousque tandem?
@kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social @fwovlaanderen.bsky.social
A lot of publications in MDPI journals also in Flanders, despite it being listed on predatoryjournals.org.

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