Brian Mills
@bmmillsy.bsky.social
270 followers 120 following 650 posts
Associate Professor, University of Texas at Austin https://sites.google.com/utexas.edu/bmmillsphd
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Reposted by Brian Mills
carlbergstrom.com
I suppose I’m too literal-minded, but I really don’t get these Google Cloud commercials where Google AI finds what are obviously spurious correlations in Major League Baseball stats.

Like isn’t this the whole reason why ML dressed up as AI is bullshit?
Google cloud/MLB logos
bmmillsy.bsky.social
Starting to think even I could have won a bunch of super bowls as an NFL coach as long as Tom Brady was my QB
bmmillsy.bsky.social
This was just a response to a lot of folks knee jerk saying it’s down b/c private equity
bmmillsy.bsky.social
For some reason only just saw this reply! My bad!
bmmillsy.bsky.social
Only able to skim but seems like a pretty cool paper. Data merging and munging must have been an enormous undertaking!
bmmillsy.bsky.social
Worth noting the full context here: "faculty...tend to shift toward more novel research after tenure...with declining hit rates...consistent with higher-risk research allocations...more than half of faculty add a new agenda. The new agendas further exhibit greater novelty for science"
florianederer.bsky.social
Research output after tenure drops off a cliff for business, economics, sociology, and other non-lab fields.

But it remains high post-tenure in lab-based fields such as chemistry, physics, computer science, and engineering.
www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....
bmmillsy.bsky.social
I see Tyler Cowen is off being an utter embarrassment again today...
Reposted by Brian Mills
bradhumphreys.bsky.social
Interesting long read on in game sports betting. I wonder about the prices offered on in game bets relative to pre game bets.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/30/b...
The Seductive, and Risky, Power of Live Sports Betting
www.nytimes.com
bmmillsy.bsky.social
You have Yamamoto-Snell-Glasnow-Kershaw-Ohtani-Sheehan as your starting rotation. No reason to ever bring in any of these relievers in the playoffs…
bmmillsy.bsky.social
FYI: this is for Sports Markets & Antitrust Issues discussion day (full disclosure: a very biased toward my friends & colleagues list):

Blair & Wang (2017) - American Needle
Fort (2017) - Rule of Reason
Winfree (2009) - Fan Substitution
Mills & Winfree (2016) - Market Power & Substitution
bmmillsy.bsky.social
Enjoying the Hornsby-Judge ‘22-‘24-‘25 pattern 100 years apart on the list…
mikepetriello.bsky.social
Aaron Judge just posted a 215 OPS+.

That's his third time topping 200. (Only 4 AL/NL hitters ever with more.)

It's the 4th-best righty batter season ever. It gives him two of the top four, and three of the top eight. stathead.com/tiny/0SA1J

Sometimes i feel like we underrate him somehow?
bmmillsy.bsky.social
And here I am about to beg for selection for my first one-semester “sabbatical” in year 15…
bmmillsy.bsky.social
Not a Penn State fan but looking for single blades of grass is an extremely lame use of replay.
Reposted by Brian Mills
jamessmyth621.bsky.social
AVG+ on Fangraphs compares a player’s batting average to the league

Judge's .330 is 35 percent above average, exactly the same as Nomar Garciaparra .372 in 2000 (when the average was .270), Rod Carew .350 in 1973 (avg .257), and Babe Ruth .393 in 1923 (avg .284) www.fangraphs.com/leaders/majo...