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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 1h

Pretty neat that the 0-2 comebacks (11%) almost exactly match the 1-in-8 odds for getting the same result on 3 straight coin flips. And the down 2-1 outcomes have pretty much the same 50/25/25 breakdown.

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 1h

Yesterday's math with only 10 out of 90 comebacks from down 2-0 was daunting (11%), well that was step one

Heading into this October, there have been 102 MLB best-of-5 postseason series with a team down 2-1

52 knocked out in Game 4 (51%)
21 forced a Game 5 but lost (21%)
29 came back to win (28%)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

MLB Postseason
Biggest Comeback Wins in Elimination Game
7 2008 ALCS Gm 5 BOS v TB
(7-0 in 7th to 8-7)
6 2012 NLDS Gm 5 STL a WAS
(6-0 in 4th to 9-7)
5 1995 ALDS Gm 4 SEA v NYY
(5-0 in 3rd to 11-8)
5 2002 WS Gm 6 ANA v SF
(5-0 in 7th to 6-5)
5 2025 ALDS Gm 3 NYY v TOR
(6-1 in 3rd to 9-6)

James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

Yankees Biggest Comeback Wins in Postseason
6 1996 WS Gm 4 at ATL
(6-0 in 6th, won 8-6 in 10)
5 1997 ALDS Gm 1 vs CLE
(5-0 in 2nd, won 8-6)
5 2010 ALCS Gm 1 at TEX
(5-0 in 7th, won 6-5)
5 2025 ALDS Gm 3 vs TOR
(6-1 in 3rd, won 9-6)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

Yankees Biggest Comeback Wins in Postseason
6 1996 WS Gm 4 at ATL
(6-0 in 6th, won 8-6 in 10)
5 1997 ALDS Gm 1 vs CLE
(5-0 in 2nd, won 8-6)
5 2010 ALCS Gm 1 at TEX
(5-0 in 7th, won 6-5)
5 2025 ALDS Gm 3 vs TOR
(6-1 in 3rd, won 9-6)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

Still alive! Jump over to YES for a jam-packed postgame show!

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

Devin Williams pitching in multiple innings for the first time since September 1, 2023

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

Wild note from @slangsonsports.bsky.social & @andrewsimonmlb.bsky.social

Judge's home run is MLB's first since at least 2008 (when pitch tracking started), that was off a pitch that fast and that far inside

James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

on the Aaron Judge home run off the pole:

99.7 MPH is the fastest pitch he's ever hit for a homer

1.2 feet is the furthest-inside pitch he's ever hit for a homer

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 12h

on the Aaron Judge home run off the pole:

99.7 MPH is the fastest pitch he's ever hit for a homer

1.2 feet is the furthest-inside pitch he's ever hit for a homer

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Reposted by James Smyth

Razzball @razzball.bsky.social · 13h

AARON JUDGE FOUL POLE

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 13h

BONG

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 14h

Max Fried & Carlos Rodón combined

2.97 ERA in the regular season
21.94 ERA in the ALDS (13 R in 5.1 IP)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 15h

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the 3rd player to homer in his first 3 games of a postseason and do it against the Yankees (Juan Gonzalez 1996 Rangers in 1st 4 games of ALDS; Bengie Molina 2005 Angels in 1st 3 games of ALDS)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 19h

Blue Jays pitching heading into Game 3

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 19h

Yankees pitching heading into Game 3

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 19h

Yankees/Blue Jays ALDS Game 3 Lineups!

A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step

Pregame at 7 on YES, game at 8 on FS1, back over to YES for postgame

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 20h

If you wanna stretch the comparison, 2001 had the Jeter Flip Play and 2017 had Judge robbing Lindor of a home run

James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 20h

Yankees have come back from 0-2 in a best-of-5 twice: 2001 ALDS vs OAK & 2017 ALDS vs CLE

Game 3’s were similar

2001: Mussina 7 IP, 0 R; Posada HR off Zito; won 1-0

2017: Tanaka 7 IP, 0 R; Bird HR off Miller; won 1-0

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 20h

July vs Cubs (also did it earlier this year in May in Anaheim)

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 20h

Yankees have come back from 0-2 in a best-of-5 twice: 2001 ALDS vs OAK & 2017 ALDS vs CLE

Game 3’s were similar

2001: Mussina 7 IP, 0 R; Posada HR off Zito; won 1-0

2017: Tanaka 7 IP, 0 R; Bird HR off Miller; won 1-0

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 1d

On the Trajekt stuff, @jrodrigues39.bsky.social had a great piece in August about how Trajekt teams have bigger OPS jumps on the first time through the order, and their home OPS on the third turn has the most significant jump www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...

The Trajekt Effect: How Technology Shifts the Game's Learning Curve | Baseball Prospectus

How to gain a perpetual edge.

www.baseballprospectus.com

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 1d

Thought you were just summing it up, but no that’s literally what he said!

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Reposted by James Smyth

Casey Ayers @casey.app · 1d

I can’t believe I got it. #Jaguars

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Reposted by James Smyth

FanGraphs Baseball @fangraphs.com · 1d

Six Innings of Zeroes, Followed by Seven At-Bats of Mayhem: Dodgers on Verge of Sweep blogs.fangraphs.com/six-innings-...

Six Innings of Zeroes, Followed by Seven At-Bats of Mayhem: Dodgers on Verge of Sweep

The two clubs followed a pair of near-perfect pitching performances with a manifestly imperfect bottom of the ninth.

blogs.fangraphs.com

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Reposted by James Smyth

Jayson Stark @jaysonst.bsky.social · 1d

New column:

For 6 months, the Phillies' formula to win was simple

They had a better starting pitcher than you
Their stars were better than your stars
Their home-field advantage was better than your home-field advantage

Then the Dodgers came to town
www.nytimes.com/athletic/669...

Phillies on the brink: Star-studded Dodgers proving to be nightmare NLDS matchup

www.nytimes.com

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James Smyth @jamessmyth621.bsky.social · 1d

Really? When I already sorta brought him up today?

Remember Some Guys @remembersomeguys.bsky.social · 1d

Mark Gardner
Pitcher
Debut: 1989 - Retired: 2001
MON - SFG - FLA - KCR

Mark Gardner at baseball-reference.com

Career stats of Mark Gardner

baseball-reference.com

Reposted by James Smyth

Jason Kirk @jasonkirk.fyi · 1d

Game-winning touchdown

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