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Bryan Knowles

@brykno.bsky.social

3K followers 88 following 1.9K posts

Contributing Writer, FTN/DVOA https://ko-fi.com/bryanknowles https://ftnfantasy.com/contributor/bryanknowles

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Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 7h

Nope, I don't get Cleveland's plan.

Ian Rapoport @rapsheet.bsky.social · 8h

Sources: The Jaguars and Browns are making a trade.

It's CB Tyson Campbell to Cleveland for Greg Newsome II, who lands in Jax, per me and @tompelissero.bsky.social

Another day, another Cleveland trade.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 12h

So, uh, who takes the UNC job now?

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Aaron Schatz @aaronschatz.com · 14h

We still have the Chiefs making the playoffs in 58% of our simulations if they lose to the Lions Sunday night, dropping to 2-4.

They win the division 29% of the time after a loss to the Lions.

ftnfantasy.com/dvoa-playoff...

NFL Playoff Picture: Odds to Win Super Bowl LX

NFL playoff picture odds to win Super Bowl LIX based on DVOA and 25,000 weekly simulations.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

Well, maybe a couple extra upsets over the Cowboys or Packers would help, too. But still, a playoff berth is a playoff berth.

The full scenario:
v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

Playoff Predictors

Playoff Predictors is a suite of playoff machines that allows you to pick every game of the season (up to the championship), and will correctly rank teams according to the league's rules. Supports the...

v2.playoffpredictors.com

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

I suspect in this scenario the rest of the conference would take care of itself. The advantage of playing a hard schedule is that NYG can do their own work against teams like PHI/DAL. In this particular scenario, the Giants get in via the common games tiebreaker over Philly; that Chargers win helps!

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

The Giants' future schedule has an average DVOA of 5.9% compared to -11.1% for the Jets, so it's harder to find even theoretical wins for them. In this particular scenario, I have them split with the Eagles, and lose to DEN/DET/NE, trying to pick off more bottom feeders.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

At least I can imagine the world in which the Giants suddenly start playing better -- putting in a first-round quarterback can have an immediate impact. Unlike the Jets, they can't get in at 4-13 (5-12 minimum), and they've got to get to 10-7 to have better than a 50/50 chance. The NFC is rough.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

The New York Giants actually have lower odds than the Jets in FTN's playoff sims at just 1.1% -- the difference between the two conferences and a much harder schedule will do that. Hey, Jaxson Dart is kinda fun, though!

Let's go ahead and get THEM into the postseason too, why not.

A hypothetical scenario showing the New York Giants getting into the playoffs at 9-8.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

They'd have to win the division to do it, with the Bills going on a 13-game losing streak to finish the year.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

Just imagine the weekly pandemonium.

v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

These scenarios, like all I post, are made by messing around with Playoff Predictors, which I can't recommend highly enough.

v2.playoffpredictors.com/football/nfl...

Playoff Predictors

Playoff Predictors is a suite of playoff machines that allows you to pick every game of the season (up to the championship), and will correctly rank teams according to the league's rules. Supports the...

v2.playoffpredictors.com

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

Mathematically, the Jets can still make the playoffs at 4-13, but it becomes more likely than not at about 9-8.

In this case, I spot the Jets losses at Baltimore and Buffalo, but have them otherwise run the table against the third-easiest remaining schedule.

Unlikely? Very. But again, 2.1%

A theoretical schedule for the Jets, having them beat everyone except for the Ravens and Bills.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

In October, the answer to most of these weird scenarios is "get good and win a ton of games", as finding magical winner sauce is still more likely than an intricate tie at 5-12.

In this case, you find whatever it was that had New York competitive with Pittsburgh, you bottle it, and you go.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 14h

The New York Jets are the last winless team, as they've somehow underperformed their rock-bottom expectations. Their season is stone-cold dead. Their playoff odds are down to 2.1% on FTN.

2.1% isn't zero, though! What might that 2.1% look like?

A theoretical AFC scenario which has the Jets making the playoffs at 10-7.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 16h

someone who is good at the salary cap please help me budget this my team is dying

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 16h

Today's article: a look at the 4-1 teams, from the Buccaneers to the Lions. Turns out, starting 4-1 is great for your playoff odds, but in the year of No Great Teams, there are flaws everywhere.

ftnfantasy.com/nfl/breaking...

Breaking Down the 4-1 Teams, from Bucs to Lions

Seven teams are 4-1, but they range from No. 1 to No. 18 in DVOA. Bryan Knowles breaks down all seven.

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Quirky Research @quirkyresearch.bsky.social · 1d

Answers:

1) Jose Cortez kicked for the 1999 Giants, 2002 Washingtons, 2005 Cowboys, and 2005 Eagles.

2) Quarterback Hunter Enis played for the 1960 Dallas Texans (now the Chiefs), the 1961 San Diego Chargers, the 1962 Broncos, and the 1962 Oakland Raiders in the then-AFL West.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

I don't know! I think "Starting Quarterback: Joe Flacco", in 2025, is kind of a flashing beacon of "we're awful!"

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

7-5 probably gets the Bengals into the playoffs. 6-6 gives them a puncher's chance.

...I don't know; I don't see it, even with Flacco.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 1d

"Our season needs saving -- let's go get Joe Flacco!"

Color me dubious.

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

Bill Barnwell @billbarnwell.com · 2d

What a drive:

- Burn 43 seconds and a TO on two Trevor scrambles
- Gorgeous, world-class throw up the sideline
- Delay of game with a stopped clock
- PI at exactly the right time
- Trevor trips and scrambles for a TD anyway

Gregg Rosenthal @greggrosenthal.bsky.social · 2d

We spent an entire segment on the Jaguars last week being the most Messy Fun team in the NFL

They've done us proud with this performance tonight

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

It has never happened before.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

No AFC or NFC South team lost this week.

Reposted by Bryan Knowles

rivers mccown @riversmccown.bsky.social · 2d

Can't stop watching it.

Bryan Knowles @brykno.bsky.social · 2d

I wrote a whole article about how Trevor Lawrence doesn't throw a catchable ball, but...