bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe
@bsiepe.bsky.social
830 followers 380 following 81 posts
PhD Student in Psychological Methods (University of Marburg) Interested in time series, simulation studies & open science https://bsiepe.github.io
bsiepe.github.io
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Nov 18
Simulation studies are essential for methods research. How well are they conducted & reported? How can we improve their quality? Out now in Psychological Methods, see 🧵 below.
With @fbartos.bsky.social, @timpmorris.bsky.social, @boulesteixlaure.bsky.social, @danielheck.bsky.social & Samuel Pawel
bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Oct 31
We reviewed 100 psych. simulation studies & find room for improvement in planning/reporting. As a remedy, we (František Bartoš, @timpmorris.bsky.social Anne-Laure Boulesteix, @danielheck.bsky.social & Samuel Pawel) present ADEMP-PreReg, a simulation study preregistration & reporting template 🧵/1
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · 13d
Congrats, Omid! 🎉
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leonievogelsmeier.bsky.social
Leonie Vogelsmeier @leonievogelsmeier.bsky.social · 16d
🚨 New preprint: We compared 13 methods for detecting momentary careless responding in the WARN-D data (206k+ obs.). Tutorials guide you through each method. The takeaway? Diverging results, inherent subjectivity (to varying degrees), and a clear need for further validation.
osf.io/preprints/ps...
OSF
osf.io
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jmbh.bsky.social
Jonas Haslbeck @jmbh.bsky.social · 16d
Two new preprints on multilevel HMMs! Time series data is now pervasive in psychology and new methods are needed to model the dynamics in such data. Hidden Markov Models (HHMs) are powerful models for dynamics in which a system is switching between a number of discrete states.
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jkflake.bsky.social
JK Flake @jkflake.bsky.social · Aug 21
Help us show there is support for offering registered reports at one of Psychology's leading method's journal! chng.it/TwwnVBScVb
Adopt Registered Reports at Psychological Methods
Can you spare a minute to help this campaign?
chng.it
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Reposted by Björn Siepe
fbartos.bsky.social
František Bartoš @fbartos.bsky.social · Aug 11
Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: evidence from 350,757 flips.

That's the title of our paper summarizing ~650 hours of coin-tossing experimentation just published in the Journal of the American Statistical Association.
doi.org/10.1080/0162...
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Reposted by Björn Siepe
eikofried.bsky.social
Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · Aug 11
New paper by @bsiepe.bsky.social & WARN-D team out now in JoPACS, on the (lack of) relation between EMA selfreport and Garmin passive data.

Guardian @theguardian.com coverage:
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...

Paper:
psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?d...

🧪 #PsychSciSky #StatsSky #EpiSky
Smartwatches offer little insight into stress levels, researchers find
Academic study suggests devices cannot differentiate between someone being overworked and being excited
www.theguardian.com
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omidvebrahimi.bsky.social
Omid V. Ebrahimi @omidvebrahimi.bsky.social · Aug 7
How Accurate & Consistent are Self-Report responses via Visual Analogue Scales (VAS) in Ecological Momentary Assessment & Digital Studies?

Examined in a massive EMA study (N = 3,761), our new #OpenAccess piece on this is just out:

online.ucpress.edu/collabra/art...

#PsychSciSky #AcademicSky

🧵:
Accuracy and Consistency of Visual Analog Scales in Ecological Momentary Assessment and Digital Studies
The ubiquity of digital technologies has increased assessments of thoughts, behaviors, and experiences via electronic devices. Surveys on smartphones or laptops often implement Visual Analogue Scales ...
online.ucpress.edu
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Aug 7
Sure! Thanks for that.
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Aug 7
It was logistic regression in scikit learn (scikit-learn.org/stable/modul...). Apparently, you could not fully turn off regularisation there for some time.
LogisticRegression
Gallery examples: Probability Calibration curves Plot classification probability Column Transformer with Mixed Types Pipelining: chaining a PCA and a logistic regression Feature transformations wit...
scikit-learn.org
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Jul 30
I'm excited that our preregistration template for simulation studies is now available on OSF!
See below for a brief interview with the Center for Open Science about the template and why we created it..
cos.io
Center for Open Science @cos.io · Jul 29
Simulation studies are widely used, but have historically lacked clear guidance around preregistration.

In response to this gap, a team of researchers have developed a new template for preregistering simulation studies, now available on OSF.

🚀 Read our Q&A: www.cos.io/blog/intr...
Introducing the Simulation Studies Preregistration Template: Q&A with Björn S. Siepe, František Bartoš, and Samuel Pawel
Initially submitted through COS’s open call for community-designed preregistration templates, the Simulation Studies Template is now part of the expanding collection of preregistration resources available on the OSF.
www.cos.io
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eikofried.bsky.social
Eiko Fried @eikofried.bsky.social · Jul 24
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Press release @unileiden.bsky.social about our upcoming JoPACS paper led by @bsiepe.bsky.social, showing that the overlap of similar constructs assessed via wearable vs EMA data is surprisingly low (n~850, 3 months).

www.universiteitleiden.nl/en/news/2025...
Does your smartwatch say you’re stressed? It may often be wrong
Consumer grade smartwatches may not be as accurate as promised when measuring tiredness or stress. That conclusion is drawn by researchers Björn Siepe and Eiko Fried based on a comparison between smar...
www.universiteitleiden.nl
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Jul 23
Congratulations!
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Jul 21
I'm very happy to see meta-science on methods research getting more attention in the form of a great new call for papers!

I recently gave some talks on the existing literature on the quality and transparency of sim studies & ideas for future improvement. Slides: bsiepe.github.io/talks/2025-0...
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matzekloft.bsky.social
Matthias Kloft @matzekloft.bsky.social · Jul 8
Today, my first R-package was released on CRAN. 🎉
You can use it to analyze interval responses collected via dual range slider scales.
Thank you to my colleague @bsiepe.bsky.social for being such an enthusiastic co-author.

cran.r-project.org/web/packages...
intervalpsych: Analyzing Interval Data in Psychometrics
Implements the Interval Consensus Model (ICM) for analyzing continuous bounded interval-valued responses in psychometrics using 'Stan' for 'Bayesian' estimation. Provides functions for transforming in...
cran.r-project.org
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anabelbuechner.bsky.social
Anabel Büchner @anabelbuechner.bsky.social · Jun 19
Self-control in daily life is more than willpower — but how well do commonly used trait scales capture this recent, broader view on self-control?

New preprint with @kaihorstmann.bsky.social & @mhennecke.bsky.social: osf.io/preprints/ps...
Short summary below.
OSF
osf.io
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Jun 6
emailed you :)
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danielheck.bsky.social
Daniel Heck @danielheck.bsky.social · May 28
🚀Postdoc position @unimarburg.bsky.social in the project:

"Bridging the Gap Between Verbal Psychological Theories & Formal Statistical Modeling with Large Language Models"
(funded by @volkswagenstiftung.de)

📅Start: 01.10.2025 | ⏳4 years
🔗 Apply now: uni-marburg.de/jhbCen
🔄 Thanks for sharing!
Postdoc
uni-marburg.de
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · May 28
Thank you :)
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danielheck.bsky.social
Daniel Heck @danielheck.bsky.social · May 15
🚀 PhD Position in Psychological Methods at @unimarburg.bsky.social
📅 Start: 01.10.2025 | 💼 50% TV-H E13 | ⏳ 3 years

Focus on statistical modeling—Bayesian statistics, cognitive modeling, psychometrics.

🔗 Apply now: uni-marburg.de/r5dKTr

🔄 Thanks for sharing!
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · May 14
Here's a recent methods paper on casual effects if (micro-)randomized interventions in EMA: psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.1037/...
APA PsycNet
psycnet.apa.org
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Apr 28
Thanks to the great Marburg-Groningen team: @matzekloft.bsky.social, @yongzhangzzz.bsky.social, @fridtjofptrsn.bsky.social, @bringmannlaura.bsky.social, @danielheck.bsky.social

💻The sim was preregistered, all code + Docker container to reproduce main results available on OSF
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Apr 28
Main takeaways:
▶️Using features of dynamic networks may often come with considerable statistical hurdles
▶️Proper uncertainty quantification is important
▶️We hope that our new implementation of a Bayesian one-step mlVAR model helps
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Apr 28
Limitations:
▶️Our simulation was computationally intensive, and we used one main data-generating process, limiting generalizability. However, we think that our data-generating process is realistic and provides somewhat ideal conditions
▶️Estimating BmlVAR can be time-consuming
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Apr 28
We highlight some advantages of a Bayesian multilevel approach:
▶️We can estimate the probability of a node being the most central node
▶️For some individuals, there may be a clearly "most central" node, whereas this is very unclear for others
▶️This information is crucial for practical applications
A plot illustrating the posterior distribution for outstrength centrality of 6 items for two participants in our empirical example. The plot indicates that for one participant (65), "depressed" has the highest point estimate of outstrength and a very high posterior probability for being the most central node, whereas this is very uncertain for another participant (92) with the same most central node.
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bsiepe.bsky.social
Björn Siepe @bsiepe.bsky.social · Apr 28
Simulation study w/ different estimation methods shows:
▶️Treatment selection: Identifying the most central node is often difficult
▶️Outcome prediction: Using centrality for outcome prediction requires large n & t & large effects
▶️Using a one-step model such as BmlVAR can help under some conditions
A plot indicating the proportion of correctly identified most central nodes (for outstrength centrality), split in four plots in a grid for the temporal and contemporaneous network with different sample sizes and number of time points for four different methods (GVAR, GIMME, mlVAR, BmlVAR).
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