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Carnegie Russia Eurasia

@carnegierussia.bsky.social

56 followers 13 following 9 posts

Latest insights from the Global Think Tank’s experts on Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia. Part of @CarnegieEndowment.org RT ≠ endorsement.

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 17h

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Dara Massicot (@massdara.bsky.social) argues that the Russian military has "quietly constructed a complex ecosystem of learning" to institutionalize battlefield lessons from Ukraine.

How Russia Recovered

What the Kremlin is learning from the war in Ukraine.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 2d

Russia has revived Intervision, a Cold War-era socialist bloc alternative to Eurovision. But despite a slick showbiz veneer, it failed to provide a convincing answer as to why it was necessary in the first place, argues Andrey Shashkov:

Putin’s Nostalgia Makes a Muddle of Russian Eurovision Analog

Despite the organizers’ efforts, Intervision was unable to demonstrate its reason for existence, and ended up with disappointing viewing figures.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 5d

🎙️ NEW EPISODE of the Carnegie Politika podcast: @alexgabuev.bsky.social and Justyna Gotkowska discuss the latest Russia-related airspace violations of Denmark, Estonia, Norway, and Poland, and what they mean for NATO: carnegieendowment.org/podcasts/car...

What to Do About Russian Drones in NATO Airspace, with Justyna Gotkowska

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 5d

Russia is once again facing a major demographic crisis, and this time the decline in the birth rate is deeper, the age structure of the population is worse, and Russia's appeal to immigrants has declined, writes Salavat Abylkalikov: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Russia’s Current Demographic Crisis Is Its Most Dangerous Yet

The key difference between the current demographic crisis and the previous one is that the latter was significantly mitigated by an element that is now absent: immigration.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 6d

"After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes." Alexandra Prokopenko analyzes Russia's draft budget and the coming tax changes: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

New Budget Confirms the Russian Public Is Paying for the War

After three and a half years of war, the Russian government is stabilizing the country’s war-torn public finances not through economic growth, but through tax hikes.

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 7d

As the Russian military continues its "grinding advance" in Donetsk, Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) joins @theworld.org's Marco Werman to discuss why Russian casualties are on the rise.

Russian military continues 'grinding advance' in Donetsk - The World from PRX

Russian troops have made incremental gains in parts of eastern Ukraine, although their advances elsewhere have stalled. That’s according to Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment fo...

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 8d

"For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant." Vladimir Solovyov on the high-profile departure of the Kremlin deputy chief of staff: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Putin No Longer Needs Negotiator in Chief Dmitry Kozak

For decades, Dmitry Kozak was one of Putin’s most trusted mediators when it came to post-Soviet countries. But the war in Ukraine has made his services redundant.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 14d

Water shortages in Central Asia will worsen significantly when Afghanistan completes a canal diverting substantial volumes of water from the Amu Darya River. And it could escalate regional tensions, writes Galiya Ibragimova. carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Could Trigger a Central Asian Water Crisis

The ambitious irrigation project is becoming a source of growing tension in Central Asia, but none of the region’s countries have been able to come up with an alternative solution.

carnegieendowment.org

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 11d

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 15d

Negotiations over the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time, argues Sergey Vakulenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Why Can’t Russia and China Agree on the Power of Siberia 2 Gas Pipeline?

Negotiations are bogged down in discussions over price, flexibility, and timeframe—and Russia’s lack of alternative buyers means China can take its time.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 16d

The painless return of Russia’s fully militarized economy to a civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics, argues Alexandra Prokopenko: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Can Russia’s Militarized Economy Ever Return to a Civilian Model?

A painless return to the civilian model is impossible: no amount of fortune can override the laws of economics.

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 15d

How did the White House end up brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

In a new article for @foreignaffairs.com, Senior Fellow Thomas de Waal unravels how a shared rejection of Russian dominance in the South Caucasus drove both parties down "an unlikely road to peace."

Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 16d

Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...

An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus

How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Alexander Gabuev 陈寒士 @alexgabuev.bsky.social · 19d

🎙️🎚️‼️
Your weekend podcast is here. I sat down with great Sergey Vakulenko to discuss the state of Russia's war engine: the oil and gas sector. Few people in the world new this domain better than Sergey. Tune in to @carnegierussia.bsky.social!
open.spotify.com/episode/2PZW...

Putin’s War Engine: How Healthy is Russia’s Oil and Gas Industry? With Sergey Vakulenko

open.spotify.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 20d

"Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered unreliable, leaving any post-election alliance prone to collapse." Balazs Jarabik on Moldova's upcoming vote: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Moldova Elections: Managed Stability, Fragile Politics

Should PAS fall short of an outright majority, political instability would likely follow. Potential coalition partners are considered either unreliable or politically compromised, leaving any post-ele...

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 21d

Russian drones crossing Belarus’s western border in one direction while a U.S. delegation entered from the other direction on the same day illustrates how little control Lukashenko has over his mission of ending his isolation, writes Artyom Shraibman: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Stray Russian Drones Test Minsk’s Attempts to Improve Relations With the West

Minsk’s modest progress in creating a more predictable and peaceful image could stall at any minute as a result of tensions and developments in the region or a change in mood by Putin or Trump.

carnegieendowment.org

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Thomas de Waal @tomdewaal.bsky.social · 22d

I was very glad of the opportunity to have a substantial conversation with @neweasterneurope.eu on the Trump deal with Armenia and Azerbaijan talkeasterneurope.eu/episodes/epi...

Episode 235: Behind the peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan

In this episode, Alexandra and Adam start off with some discussion on the news, including concerns over the upcoming Russia/Belarus Zapad 2025 militar...

talkeasterneurope.eu

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 22d

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the U.S. is ready to invest to make it stick, argues Olesya Vartanyan: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

A Month After Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Summit, Has Trump Secured a Lasting Peace?

Washington may have persuaded Armenia and Azerbaijan to sign a long-awaited peace agreement, but one month later it still remains unclear how much the United States is ready to invest to make it stick...

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 27d

While the West is using customs duties to try to head off an influx of Chinese electric cars, the countries of Central Asia are doing everything they can to welcome them. Temur Umarov and Roman Vakulchuk assess the consequences for the region: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

China Has Flooded Central Asia With Electric Cars—the Impact Will Be Long-Lasting

By entering this new stage of development of the automotive industry via Chinese electric cars, Central Asia will eventually be forced to adopt Chinese standards for the industry’s development, integr...

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · 28d

Senior Fellow Michael Kofman (@michaelkofman.bsky.social) discusses the current trajectory of the Ukraine-Russia war with CNN's Bianna Golodryga (@biannagolodryga.bsky.social) and shares his observations from a recent trip to the frontlines.

Ukraine war increasingly likely to go into 2026, military analyst says | CNN

Michael Kofman, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, speaks with Bianna Golodryga about what he learned from his trip to the frontlines of the Ukraine-Russia war.

edition.cnn.com

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Carnegie Politika @ceip-politika.bsky.social · 28d

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities. Read Vladislav Gorin's article: carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...

Putin’s Supreme Court Pick Heralds Further State Appropriation of Assets

The emergence of Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov as the frontrunner to head Russia’s Supreme Court heralds little legal change, but does shed light on Kremlin priorities.

carnegieendowment.org

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Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · Jun 24

Join us Thursday for a conversation with @shaunwalker7.bsky.social on his upcoming book "The Illegals", a riveting account Russian deep-cover espionage from the Bolsheviks to Putin. Register here:
carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

The Illegals: A Conversation With Shaun Walker on the Untold Story of Russia’s Deep-Cover Spies

For more than a century, Soviet and Russian spymasters have poured enormous resources into the training and deployment of deep-cover spies known as “illegals.” These agents live behind enemy lines for...

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · Jun 24

With a ceasefire or total Russian defeat unlikely, Ukraine should pursue a long-term strategy of “strategic neutralization” to make it impossible for Moscow to win the war. More from @andriypzag.bsky.social on ways Kyiv can survive, adapt, and achieve success: carnegieendowment.org/research/202...

Ukraine’s New Theory of Victory Should be Strategic Neutralization

By ensuring that Russia’s war is operationally pointless, Ukraine can survive, adapt, and achieve success, no matter how prolonged the war.

carnegieendowment.org

Carnegie Russia Eurasia @carnegierussia.bsky.social · Jun 24

Join us Thursday for a conversation with @shaunwalker7.bsky.social on his upcoming book "The Illegals", a riveting account Russian deep-cover espionage from the Bolsheviks to Putin. Register here:
carnegieendowment.org/events/2025/...

The Illegals: A Conversation With Shaun Walker on the Untold Story of Russia’s Deep-Cover Spies

For more than a century, Soviet and Russian spymasters have poured enormous resources into the training and deployment of deep-cover spies known as “illegals.” These agents live behind enemy lines for...

carnegieendowment.org

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Carnegie Endowment @carnegieendowment.org · Jun 23

🧵1/3 Neither an easy ceasefire nor a decisive military victory looks possible for Ukraine, at least in the short term.

Reposted by Carnegie Russia Eurasia

Dara Massicot @massdara.bsky.social · Jun 23

My thoughts on Russia’s military options and limitations supporting Iran before, during, and after this conflict.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/19372...

Thread by @MassDara on Thread Reader App

@MassDara: For the second time, Russia finds itself with few military options to support a critical partner in the Middle East. This thread explains Russia’s military options and limitations for suppo...

threadreaderapp.com