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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · 11d

The latest Russia Contingency is out. I join BG Jyri Raitasalo to talk about how Finnish Defense Forces are changing training, perspectives on lessons learned from the Russia-Ukraine war, deterrence/defense l as part of NATO, and more. @WarOnTheRocks t.co/wnKrcOxLug

https://warontherocks.com/episode/therussiacontingency/36087/finlands-frontline-and-natos-northern-defense/

t.co

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

David Cadier @davidcadier.bsky.social · 14d

Very much looking forward to welcoming @michaelkofman.bsky.social at @irsem.bsky.social, to his keynote on the strategic lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war, and to discussing implications for European security with @elietenenbaum.bsky.social and Maud Quessard!

October 6

www.irsem.fr/agenda/strat...

Strategic Lessons of the Russia-Ukraine War: Implications for European Security - IRSEM

www.irsem.fr

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

War on the Rocks @warontherocks.bsky.social · Aug 22

Security guarantees looked one way in Alaska, and another in Washington. @massdara.bsky.social and @michaelkofman.bsky.social join Ryan to break down which version Ukraine might get.

Listen here: warontherocks.com/20...

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Sam Freedman @samfr.bsky.social · Aug 16

New post from @ldfreedman.bsky.social

"Half-Baked Alaska"

On the failed Trump-Putin summit and what changes about the prospects of peace as a result.

(£/free to read)

samf.substack.com/p/half-baked...

Half-Baked Alaska

Moving from ceasefire to full settlement

samf.substack.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Aug 17

Since security guarantees are back in discussion, for those interested in the requirements, tasks, and what a European deterrence force might look like - check out this piece from back in March with Jack Watling. warontherocks.com/2025/03/will...

Willpower, Not Manpower, is Europe’s Main Limitation for a Force in Ukraine - War on the Rocks

Following a dramatic meeting in the White House, U.S. military support for Ukraine is perilously uncertain. Sustaining Ukraine in this war, and

warontherocks.com

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Brian Whitmore @powervertical.bsky.social · Aug 1

On The Power Vertical Podcast this week, I speak with the always insightful Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the state of the front lines in Ukraine.

www.powervertical.org/2025/08/01/t...

THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER

powervertical · THE GUNS AND DRONES OF SUMMER Russia’s summer offensive is in full swing with Moscow capitalizing on a series of small advances in an attempt to reshape control of the front l…

www.powervertical.org

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jul 26

Recently met this great UA customs inspector

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Christopher Miller @christopherjm.ft.com · Jul 25

Uh oh.

Scoop: Scores of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s MPs are potentially refusing to vote to restore the independence of Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies, fearing the regained powers will be used to take revenge against them. www.ft.com/content/d8c2... via @financialtimes.com

Zelenskyy MPs balk at restoring anti-corruption bodies over “revenge” fears

MPs fearing prosecution refuse to vote on bill that restores independence of anti-corruption agencies

www.ft.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jul 9

Latest WOTR podcast is out. I join @ryanevans.bsky.social to talk about the state of the front, manpower, drones, and the recent disruption of aid from the United States. Open to all. @WarOnTheRocks open.spotify.com/episode/11Cb...

How Ukraine is Adapting, Enduring, and Striking Back

War on the Rocks · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 26

Some things here may be dated but I still found it useful. If you follow drone use in Ukraine then you likely know a lot of what’s in this piece. Yet the perspective is nonetheless helpful. warontherocks.com/2025/06/i-fo...

I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck – War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Shashank Joshi @shashj.bsky.social · Jun 24

Important. "The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an early US [DIA] intelligence assessment" edition.cnn.com/2025/06/24/p...

Exclusive: Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites, sources say | CNN Politics

The US military strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear facilities last weekend did not destroy the core components of the country’s nuclear program and likely only set it back by months, according to an e...

edition.cnn.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 23

NYT on the decision to strike Iran. www.nytimes.com/2025/06/22/u...

Shifting Views and Misdirection: How Trump Decided to Strike Iran

www.nytimes.com

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

msnegovaya.bsky.social @msnegovaya.bsky.social · Jun 20

[email protected] and I had a great conversation with the always insightful @michaelkofman.bsky.social about the current state of the war in Ukraine. Mike shared his assessment of the frontline situation, how things are going for each side, & what he’s watching closely in the months ahead.

A Battlefield Update from Mike Kofman | Russian Roulette | CSIS Podcasts

Max and Maria get another update from military expert Mike Kofman on the state of the frontlines in Ukraine.

www.csis.org

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 19

Latest RC is out. I join @justin-br0nk.bsky.social and Guy Plopsky to talk about the Israeli vs Russian air campaign. Why one succeed and the other failed. How can these different wars be usefully compared? What are observations or lessons learned. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Air Power in Practice: Lessons from Israel and Russia, Part 1 – War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 7

The damage to 6 other bombers is unclear. Max impact could therefore be 40%-50% of operationally ready aircraft if all 20 were affected. However it looked like some Tu-22M3 hit were not operable.

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 7

Assuming 40% operational readiness in Russian LRA the confirmed impact of damaged and destroyed aircraft is 25-30% of the fleet. If readiness is lower then this goes to 35%+. These are rough estimates.

Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 6

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 7

Thanks

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 7

For folks who missed it. I sat down with the head of Estonian Military Intelligence for a conversation on the Russia-Ukraine war, how he sees the future Russia threat, and the security dynamic in the Baltic. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

An Estonian Perspective on the Current and Future Russian Threat – War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 6

Another Russia Contingency episode is out. Rob Lee and @massdara.bsky.social join me for a good discussion on the SBU operation, what we know, implications, and exchange views on the current course of the war. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Reposted by Michael Kofman

Dr. Jacquelyn Schneider @jackieschneider.bsky.social · Jun 5

With interviews featuring Leon Panetta, Frank Kendall, Michael A. Brown, @spettyjohn.bsky.social, Paul Scharre, @mchorowitz.bsky.social @aaronbateman.bsky.social, @michaelkofman.bsky.social, Kate Epstein, Thomas G. Mahnken, Benjamin Jensen, Jack Shanahan, James Roche and many more

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Dara Massicot @massdara.bsky.social · Jun 5

Rob Lee, @michaelkofman.bsky.social and I share our views on drone strikes on Russian bombers, and views on the frontlines in Ukraine below @warontherocks.bsky.social

warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Unpacking Ukraine’s Audacious Drone Raid – War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · Jun 6

Where different BDA assessments seem to converge. Destroyed: 7 Tu-95MS, 4 Tu-22M3, 1 An-12. Damaged: 1 Tu-95MS, 2 Tu-22M3 , 2 A-50s (probably non-operational). Additionally attacked & possibly damaged: 4 Tu-22M3 (status unclear), and 1 Tu-95MS.

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · May 30

The second part of our Russia contingency episode with Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko is out. We continue the discussion on Russia’s economic outlook, debates about how Moscow is financing the war, defense spending, and more. @warontherocks.bsky.social warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 2 - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · May 30

Interesting investigative piece. danwatch.dk/en/serious-s...

Massive security breach: Russian nuclear facilities exposed online

Danwatch and Der Spiegel has gained access to hundreds of highly detailed blueprints showing how Russia is carrying out an enormous modernization of some of the

danwatch.dk

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Michael Kofman @michaelkofman.bsky.social · May 20

Latest Russia Contingency is out. I’m joined by Richard Connolly and Alexandra Prokopenko to talk about the state of the Russian economy. We look at oil prices, sanctions, and discuss different scenarios for the coming months. @WarOnTheRocks warontherocks.com/episode/ther...

Assessing the Russian Economy in 2025, Part 1 - War on the Rocks

warontherocks.com

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