New from CBO: year-by-year health coverage effects of the "Big Beautiful Bill."

The law kicks 10 million off their health insurance (the difference between the orange and dotted blue line). It also does nothing to address the cliff from the blue to the green, for another 5 million losing coverage.

The "one big beautiful bill," which would leave some 16m uninsured, is making people say some ugly things.

Sen. McConnell: "They'll get over it."

Sen. Ernst: "Well, we all are going to die."

CMS Administrator Oz: "Prove that you matter."

As long as GOPs are cutting Medicaid they figure why not gut Obamacare too talkingpointsmemo.com/news/senate-...

"...the US uninsured rate has never risen as far, as fast as it will if the House bill and other looming policy changes affecting insurance coverage take effect"

-- @mattafiedler.bsky.social www.healthaffairs.org/content/fore...

Interestingly, CBO assumes that where abortion coverage is required, insurers wouldn't get ACA CSR payments and instead continue silver loading. So, in states that require abortion coverage, enrollees would actually get higher premium subsidies paid for by the federal government.

CBO finds the House bill has $1 trillion in health care cuts and increases the uninsured by 16 million (w/other changes).

How big is this? Compared to 2017 ACA repeal bills, this is larger than "skinny repeal" and up to two thirds the size of full repeal.

Wow.
www.brookings.edu/articles/new...

Increasing frequency of eligibility redeterminations, when many states are ill-equipped to use existing data sources to confirm ongoing eligibility, has the same effect: Eligible folks get paperworked out of coverage alongside those who have actually become ineligible.

I want to emphasize that this is 18,000 avoidable deaths per year *of Medicare enrollees.*

They aren't in CBO's "uninsured" count — they're older people and folks with disabilities on Medicare who won't get extra financial help because of a proposed moratorium on a regulation.

Latest House bill text includes another blow to the ACA, ending “silver loading.” That would increase premiums by $350 for a hypothetical family. Here’s why: www.brookings.edu/articles/und...

Does the House GOP reconciliation bill take health insurance away from newborn babies? Why yes, yes it does. If you read nothing else today, read this post from CHIRblog guest authors @jasonlevitis.bsky.social and @clinkeyoung.bsky.social chirblog.org/the-sleeper-...

Some provisions of the House reconciliation package aren’t getting much media coverage, but they could mean big changes for the Affordable Care Act
chirblog.org/the-sleeper-... @sabrinacorlette.bsky.social @jasonlevitis.bsky.social @clinkeyoung.bsky.social

House Republicans’ plan would take Medicaid from people who can’t meet burdensome work reporting rules, putting up to 14.4 million at risk of losing Medicaid coverage by 2034. State and district level estimates here: www.cbpp.org/research/hea...

NEW at @thebulwark.com

Why the Republican Medicaid cuts are even worse than you've heard

www.thebulwark.com/p/gop-republ...

Over the weekend, Congressional Republicans proposed portions of a budget reconciliation package that could make significant changes to Medicaid and the ACA.

If passed, nearly 14 million people could become uninsured by 2034.

More from @kff.org here: www.kff.org/policy-watch...

Staggering, extreme stuff from Energy and Commerce text this morning. Largest Medicaid cut in history; according to CBO nearly 14 million people become uninsured under this agenda. Heartbreaking and cruel.

You may have heard talk about the reconciliation bill ending Marketplace "silver loading." I wrote about the big middle class premium increases that would cause - hypothetical couple earning $62K per year sees premiums increase by $350 per month. www.brookings.edu/articles/und...

Trump administration proposal would be "death by a thousand cuts" for the Affordable Care Act - up to 2M people would lose coverage, millions more would face higher costs. @jasonlevitis.bsky.social @clinkeyoung.bsky.social and I sum it up: georgetown.app.box.com/file/1831720...

New: ACA enrollment has more than doubled since 2020, with the greatest growth in states won by President Trump. If enhanced premium aid is allowed to expire at the end of this year, those states will see big out-of-pocket premiums hikes and loss of health coverage.
www.kff.org/policy-watch...

HHS career staff are truly the best in the business. Brilliant, humble, mission-driven public servants who have come to work everyday -- often for decades -- to hold our patchwork health system together. I'm heartbroken for them, and for the institution they serve.

Looking forward to chatting with some of the very smartest people about prescription drug supply chains next week. Join us! www.brookings.edu/events/the-r...

Hi Bluesky! Great to be here from my new seat, as a visiting Fellow @brookings.edu! My first post is up this morning, on why Medicare can and should finalize a policy to promote broad access to "lower cost" drugs on Medicare Part D formularies. www.brookings.edu/articles/med...