Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
PhDing @ University of Reading: 'DIVIDED: Inequality and Polarization Prevention' | New Zealand stuff for @oceaniaelects.bsky.social
🇳🇿This is the best poll for the government in over a year — at the moment still an outlier, but comes along an uptick in people thinking that the economic situation will get better over the next year. If that's something that holds then it's a big challenge for the opposition.
December 8, 2025 at 3:50 PM
🇳🇿This is the best poll for the government in over a year — at the moment still an outlier, but comes along an uptick in people thinking that the economic situation will get better over the next year. If that's something that holds then it's a big challenge for the opposition.
4) Major shift in immigration views, lowest support for immigration since the 90s — 2022 now stands out as something of an oddity, probably the effects of the recovery from COVID
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
4) Major shift in immigration views, lowest support for immigration since the 90s — 2022 now stands out as something of an oddity, probably the effects of the recovery from COVID
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
3) This is the most self-expressed left-wing electorate other than 2016; the biggest shift to the left from one election to another other than in 2010.
And yet this election saw slightly less support for tax, social services spending, and wealth redistribution — cost of living effect?
And yet this election saw slightly less support for tax, social services spending, and wealth redistribution — cost of living effect?
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
3) This is the most self-expressed left-wing electorate other than 2016; the biggest shift to the left from one election to another other than in 2010.
And yet this election saw slightly less support for tax, social services spending, and wealth redistribution — cost of living effect?
And yet this election saw slightly less support for tax, social services spending, and wealth redistribution — cost of living effect?
2) Measures of satisfaction with the democratic and political system are broadly stable, though there is a very slight movement towards a more 'disillusioned' perspective — but people largely are still satisfied with democracy and do still see elections as meaningful and important
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
2) Measures of satisfaction with the democratic and political system are broadly stable, though there is a very slight movement towards a more 'disillusioned' perspective — but people largely are still satisfied with democracy and do still see elections as meaningful and important
Voters also increasingly think the Coalition are not "capable of strong government" and that Labor are. Though this is a pretty new question in the AES, and you also might expect an incumbency bias in this question — though Labor was at net -9 in 2019 while the Coalition is at net -14 in 2025
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Voters also increasingly think the Coalition are not "capable of strong government" and that Labor are. Though this is a pretty new question in the AES, and you also might expect an incumbency bias in this question — though Labor was at net -9 in 2019 while the Coalition is at net -14 in 2025
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
November 5, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
November 5, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
NYTimes forecast currently has Spanberger at 57%, if that holds then the amount of split ticket voting we're seeing isn't enough to get Miyares over the line
November 5, 2025 at 12:43 AM
NYTimes forecast currently has Spanberger at 57%, if that holds then the amount of split ticket voting we're seeing isn't enough to get Miyares over the line
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
October 29, 2025 at 8:05 PM
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
October 24, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
October 23, 2025 at 6:22 AM
Don't remember a time where severe delays have persisted on the Northern line for multiple days, crazy stuff. Can't imagine TfL staff have been having a fun week.
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
October 1, 2025 at 7:48 PM
This is not borne out in the data used in the article — 44% say Farage isn't racist... which means that Starmer has told the median voter they are racist and there'll be a backlash as result??? Insane jump
But the opposition is of course taking from the Trump playbook and casting doubt if election integrity
September 28, 2025 at 9:28 PM
But the opposition is of course taking from the Trump playbook and casting doubt if election integrity
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
September 28, 2025 at 9:27 PM
🇲🇩PAS could be on the verge of a majority once the remaining votes are counted, which are very fabourable for PAS
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
PAS: 45.7%
Parliamentary opposition: 48.0% (or if PPDA drop below 5% then PAS will have a majority anyway)
Remarkable resilience in the face of constant Russian interference
Genuinely what are we doing here? 100k+ far-right nationalists marching in London and all the government has to say is like "it shows we have free speech" or "gosh we're so divided"
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
September 14, 2025 at 9:57 AM
Genuinely what are we doing here? 100k+ far-right nationalists marching in London and all the government has to say is like "it shows we have free speech" or "gosh we're so divided"
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
Totally mad that they're too scared (I think?) to just outright oppose them
www.theguardian.com/politics/liv...
South Vancouver Island, BC 🇨🇦🏞️
September 1, 2025 at 6:37 PM
South Vancouver Island, BC 🇨🇦🏞️
This is in line with the latest Probe Research poll which shows the PCs down by 15 outside of Winnipeg, bigger than the 7 point drop in Winnipeg — NDP are now the most popular party in the capital and outside of it.
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
August 27, 2025 at 10:45 AM
This is in line with the latest Probe Research poll which shows the PCs down by 15 outside of Winnipeg, bigger than the 7 point drop in Winnipeg — NDP are now the most popular party in the capital and outside of it.
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
probe-research.com/index.php/po...
Spruce Woods by-election in Manitoba confirms the Wab Kinew honeymoon is very big and very much ongoing
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
August 27, 2025 at 10:40 AM
Spruce Woods by-election in Manitoba confirms the Wab Kinew honeymoon is very big and very much ongoing
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
🔵 PC: 46.9% (-14.9)
🟠 NDP: 45.7% (+21.7)
🔴 Liberal: 7.4% (-6.8)
Two years is well above normal political "honeymoon" phase, a phenomenon which isn't even necessarily guaranteed for a new govt
How is this guy even still a Labour MP, wtf!
August 22, 2025 at 8:57 AM
How is this guy even still a Labour MP, wtf!