On the other hand, when TPM win overhang seats it slightly reduces the threshold the left bloc need to get a majority — can be important in a close election — but would mean potentially Labour+Green have to negotiate govt with a pretty unpopular party.

Obviously terrible numbers for Te Pāti Māori too. Rawiri Waititi has a 56-point margin in Waiariki so I don't think he's in trouble, but the rest of their electorate seats are. On the one hand decreases he likelihood Labour+Green would need TPM to form government if the opposition got a majority...

4) Major shift in immigration views, lowest support for immigration since the 90s — 2022 now stands out as something of an oddity, probably the effects of the recovery from COVID

What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia

3) This is the most self-expressed left-wing electorate other than 2016; the biggest shift to the left from one election to another other than in 2010.

And yet this election saw slightly less support for tax, social services spending, and wealth redistribution — cost of living effect?

2) Measures of satisfaction with the democratic and political system are broadly stable, though there is a very slight movement towards a more 'disillusioned' perspective — but people largely are still satisfied with democracy and do still see elections as meaningful and important

Voters also increasingly think the Coalition are not "capable of strong government" and that Labor are. Though this is a pretty new question in the AES, and you also might expect an incumbency bias in this question — though Labor was at net -9 in 2019 while the Coalition is at net -14 in 2025

Greens go from left-wing protest party to actually a viable party in its own right. Labour lose the tactical voting argument for the most part. That's a much more difficult position to rebuild from than even where they are right now...

Labour are only three points ahead of the Greens right now. What happens if the Greens are actually ahead of Labour in the polls by the May elections? It's possible we see what happened on the right happen to the left.

Big gains in the elections give them a big bump in the polls.

How can we make the PM look strong and secure in his position?

I know, by making sure all the headlines are talking about that leadership challenge that the media had stopped talking about!