Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
PhDing @ University of Reading: 'DIVIDED: Inequality and Polarization Prevention' | New Zealand stuff for @oceaniaelects.bsky.social
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Conrad
@conradaml.bsky.social
· Sep 26
Is Alberta's party system changing? Not yet.
A shock new poll from Cardinal Research suggests big change could be underway in Alberta, but there's reason to be sceptical
conradaml.substack.com
I wrote about a recent poll in Alberta that had some very eye-catching numbers — it's a key case of needing to be cautious to not draw too many conclusions from a single poll, even when it shows something dramatic
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
conradaml.substack.com/p/is-alberta...
To me this makes the One Nation surge make way more sense. It's not just that voters on the right are fed with the Coalition — though that's definitely a big part. It's that One Nation's key issue, immigration, now taps into this anti-immigrant view that is shared by many more Aussies than before
4) Major shift in immigration views, lowest support for immigration since the 90s — 2022 now stands out as something of an oddity, probably the effects of the recovery from COVID
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
What stands out even more is a sharp decrease in positive attitude towards immigrant effects on Australia
December 3, 2025 at 4:15 PM
To me this makes the One Nation surge make way more sense. It's not just that voters on the right are fed with the Coalition — though that's definitely a big part. It's that One Nation's key issue, immigration, now taps into this anti-immigrant view that is shared by many more Aussies than before
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
December 3, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Some initial headline points from the Australian Election Study
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
1) Perceptions of the ALP on the feeling thermometer have been broadly stable, and neutral, for the last few cycles
While Liberals have fallen to new lows in this measure for the past two elections, now almost as low as the Nats
Reposted by Conrad
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
What the special election in Tennessee's Seventh District means for the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play
www.gelliottmorris.com
December 3, 2025 at 3:56 AM
A recap of tonight's special election in TN-07 (plus a WAY-TOO-EARLY model of the 2026 midterms).
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
A swing of 13 points would put Dems over 250 seats in the U.S. House. A more reasonable scenario—say, D+6—still gives them the House, and maybe the Senate.
www.gelliottmorris.com/p/what-the-s...
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
November 27, 2025 at 10:49 AM
Possible effect from the fallout of the failed Indigenous Voice to Parliament referendum?
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
The 2025 Australian Election Study finds a big uptick in people thinking that govt help and transfer of land rights for indigenous people has gone too far — highest who think that in two decades.
Stokesyyyy. What a guy!!
November 21, 2025 at 9:51 AM
Stokesyyyy. What a guy!!
Reposted by Conrad
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
www.poal.co.uk
November 18, 2025 at 8:04 AM
"Safeguarding data quality is no longer a single checkpoint but an end-to-end pipeline - one that reallocates substantial resources from sampling to continuous fraud monitoring"
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Read our new POAL Methods Brief by @laurenleek.eu on dealing with AI bots in surveys!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/briefai.pdf
Reposted by Conrad
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
November 17, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Yesterday, we put out a report on the most important issues to voters.
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
We know that immigration now tops the traditional most important issues question (see below from @yougov.co.uk).
But that doesn't tell the full story.
Here is a rundown of the experiments we did to test this out (A THREAD):
Someone needs to tell the government that at this point they shouldn't just be trying to salvage the next election, they need to be seriously considering the possibility of Pasokification if they continue like this.
November 17, 2025 at 11:20 AM
Someone needs to tell the government that at this point they shouldn't just be trying to salvage the next election, they need to be seriously considering the possibility of Pasokification if they continue like this.
Reposted by Conrad
democrats love all their moderate, progressive, and top-of-the-distribution leaders <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
November 13, 2025 at 11:13 PM
democrats love all their moderate, progressive, and top-of-the-distribution leaders <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
they can all live in harmony together under a big diverse tent if they restore regional party identities and stop the circular firing squad on nationalized media <3
Who is the absolute idiot that decided it would be a good idea for No. 10 to brief about a leadership challenge coming from Wes Streeting? What were they hoping to accomplish? Bizarre.
November 12, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Who is the absolute idiot that decided it would be a good idea for No. 10 to brief about a leadership challenge coming from Wes Streeting? What were they hoping to accomplish? Bizarre.
Reposted by Conrad
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Public Opinion Analytics Lab
The website of the Public Opinion Analytics Lab
www.poal.co.uk
November 10, 2025 at 8:47 AM
"While testing one dimension at a time can yield simple results, those effects may not generalise to richer, real-world contexts."
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Read our new POAL Methods Briefs on Conjoint Experiments from Thomas Robinson!
Link: www.poal.co.uk/research/met...
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
November 5, 2025 at 3:17 AM
Candidate quality does still matter, even if it's maybe a reduced effect than it used to be.
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Dem margin
Gov: D+14
LG: D+10
AG: D+6
Jay Jones was clearly hurt in the AG race by the leaked texts, but the effect isn't big enough to keep him from winning in such a Democratic environment
Reposted by Conrad
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:11 AM
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
November 5, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Incumbent Minneapolis mayor Jacob Frey at the moment is ahead but the city uses RCV and at the moment he's sill some distance from 50%. If the anti-Frey vote stays together it could go to Fateh and elect him, but the three main opposing candidates have disparate views — Fateh is much to their left
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
November 5, 2025 at 2:48 AM
At the moment Mamdani is hitting the 50% mark, while Sliwa massively underperforms the polls — Cuomo probably did a good job of winning over lots of his voters as the tactical option, but Mamdani is doing notably better than his polling too.
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
November 5, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Maine at the moment is looking like it easily rejecting new voting restrictions — good to see
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
November 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
Quite a lot of ticket splitting in Loudon County, Jones' margin is 11 points worse — though the gap is a little lower in other counties that are nearly fully counted.
Reposted by Conrad
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
October 31, 2025 at 2:32 PM
NEW from me:
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Political hostility, high visa fees and (in the case of the UK) stagnant incomes are making the UK and US less attractive destinations for top international talent.
That steep decline in the appeal of moving to the US after 2016 is 👀
Reposted by Conrad
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
October 30, 2025 at 7:01 AM
With the official prognosis giving one additional seat to PVV and one to FvD compared to the ext poll, the narrative should really not be that the Netherlands/Jetten has beaten the radical right. The far right bloc remains remarkably stable.
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
October 29, 2025 at 8:05 PM
D66 last minute surge has them coming out on top in the exit poll (though within margin of error between them and PVV and VVD), and clearly some of this coming at the expense of GL/PvdA who underperform the polls and are not in contention for largest party. Also showing some resilience for VVD.
Reposted by Conrad
To go from "Who is Katie Lam?" to "Everybody hates Katie Lam, the Tory Idi Amin" in less than a week is exemplary "rising star" behaviour
October 24, 2025 at 4:35 PM
To go from "Who is Katie Lam?" to "Everybody hates Katie Lam, the Tory Idi Amin" in less than a week is exemplary "rising star" behaviour
Reposted by Conrad
The Plaid vote will include Plaid loyalists + much of the half of Labour voters unhappy with the government *and* a big chunk of the half of the Labour vote that is OK with the government but wanted to stop Reform representing their town. It is a winning coalition for different motives
October 24, 2025 at 10:49 AM
The Plaid vote will include Plaid loyalists + much of the half of Labour voters unhappy with the government *and* a big chunk of the half of the Labour vote that is OK with the government but wanted to stop Reform representing their town. It is a winning coalition for different motives
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.
October 24, 2025 at 7:27 AM
Based on reporting we can maybe interpret this as high turnout driven by tactical anti-Reform voting. I think the question is though whether this holds if it had been viewed as Labour v Reform. Both Reform and Plaid benefit from challenger status here.