Daniel P. Gross
@danielpgross.bsky.social
1.8K followers 300 following 21 posts
Prof at @DukeFuqua, formerly @HarvardHBS @UCBerkeley. Studying how crisis R&D, tech policy, automation affect firms & economies. http://dpgross.com
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danielpgross.bsky.social
Confirmed participants include #PhilippeAghion, @s-stantcheva.bsky.social, @johnvanreenen.bsky.social; @heidiwilliams.bsky.social will lead an illustrious policy panel discussing how research is used in govt fiscal analysis.

Conference on 19-20 Mar; submission deadline 30 Nov. Mark your calendars!
danielpgross.bsky.social
📢 Conference announcement!

Paolo Surico and I are excited to be organizing this @cepr.org conference on Public Policies for Innovation.

If you work in the #Economics of #Innovation and #InnovationPolicy, please submit + spread the word. Non-presenting attendees also invited.
cepr.org
#CallForPapers - Conference on Public Policies for Innovation
ESRC, London Business School, @fuqua.duke.edu & CEPR invite submissions for a #conference on Public Policies for Innovation at LBS on 19-20 March 2026.
cepr.org/events/confe...
Organisers: Paolo Surico & @danielpgross.bsky.social
#EconSky
danielpgross.bsky.social
Tagging @fgaessler.bsky.social. I remember this paper from its early days - happy to see this out! Congrats
danielpgross.bsky.social
Also find it hard to believe a complex paper like this was made up from whole cloth... but could be wrong. Retraction + expulsion clearly points to major misconduct of some kind. I prefer facts over speculation--we'll get them eventually. For now the key thing to do is just to stop citing the paper!
danielpgross.bsky.social
This is a thoughtful take worth a full read. Despite all the hot takes I find it hard to have a point of view over the specific faults or appropriate remedies (individual to the author, or systemic) until we know more about what happened.
timobres.bsky.social
#econsky What do we know about “Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation” and about MIT's investigation of this paper, which apparently led to expulsion of its author? And what should we change in response. /1
danielpgross.bsky.social
Good news is that next time we can have GPT adjudicate. Happy to submit to binding AI arbitration. 🤖
danielpgross.bsky.social
^ This guy gets it (in my impartial opinion)
jamesfeigenbaum.bsky.social
Just to be safe, I think we should put a waiting period of say 100 years after a technology shock to study it's effects (or at the very least land such a study in a top5)
ryanreedhill.bsky.social
With the excitement (delirium?) surrounding the rise of AI, it's more important than ever that scientists and journalists maintain an attitude of skepticism and dispassion about new findings as they arrive
www.wsj.com/tech/ai/mit-...
danielpgross.bsky.social
Fantastic thread on an important paper. Andrew's previous paper ("The Returns to Government R&D: Evidence from U.S. Appropriations Shocks") also worth a read.
fieldhouse.bsky.social
Very excited about our new paper on the large social returns to public R&D spending, which was prepared for the @NBER Entrepreneurship and Innovation Policy and the Economy Conference, 2025
nber.org
NBER @nber.org · May 16
Recent evidence finds a strong causal link between public research and development and private-sector productivity growth. A study on the potential productivity effects from the CHIPS Act, from @fieldhouse.bsky.social and Karel Mertens https://www.nber.org/papers/w33780
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
nber.org
NBER @nber.org · Apr 5
Reviewing the history of US indirect cost recovery policy, presenting new data on indirect cost recovery rates, modeling the effects of a 15 percent cap at the NIH, and evaluating tradeoffs across reform options, from Azoulay, Gross, and Sampat https://www.nber.org/papers/w33627
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
bencasselman.bsky.social
Tariffs get all the attention, but ask economists what they're really worried about and many will point to the Trump administration's cuts to federal support for the sciences, including canceling grants and revoking student visas.
#EconSky
www.nytimes.com/2025/03/31/b...
Trump’s Science Policies Pose Long-Term Risk, Economists Warn (Gift Article)
Since World War II, U.S. research funding has led to discoveries that fueled economic gains. Now cutbacks are seen as putting that legacy in jeopardy.
www.nytimes.com
danielpgross.bsky.social
Slightly less poetically perhaps. You're dating yourself w Joni Mitchell instead of the Counting Crows... Meanwhile everyone younger than us is wondering both who and what are those 🤷
danielpgross.bsky.social
Looks like the cat is out of the bag. Good post by @stuartbuck.bsky.social on indirect cost recovery citing new joint work with @sampat.bsky.social and @pierre-azoulay.bsky.social.

Find it here: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/g8792...
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
voxeu.org
@danielpgross.bsky.social & @sampat.bsky.social introduce a comprehensive, open-access #dataset identifying US government-funded patents from 1900-2020. The government's share of patented innovations reached its zenith during WWII - comprising 11% of all US filings.
cepr.org/voxeu/column...
#EconSky
A graph of government-funded patents per R&D dollar, overall and by agency.

Though federal spending on research and development has been a pillar of US innovation since World War II, the level and composition of that funding shows significant variation over time. This column introduces a comprehensive, open-access dataset identifying government-funded patents from 1900 to 2020, collected from administrative records of the US Patent and Trademark Office. The authors discuss how these data – which include a much larger set of publicly funded patents than was previously known – can be used in future research, consider their limitations, and document long-run patterns in US patent policy.
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
nber.org
NBER @nber.org · Feb 15
The US WW2 medical research and development effort catalyzed postwar science, modernized drug discovery, and fueled the postwar National Institutes of Health — reshaping biomedical innovation for decades, from Daniel P. Gross and Bhaven N. Sampat https://www.nber.org/papers/w33457
danielpgross.bsky.social
Woot!!! Amazing to hear it's official. A huge win for everyone at Duke.
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
bitsyperlman.bsky.social
A good summary of what's gone on with NSF funding, and some interesting new tidbits.

I'm really pleased they chose to end with @wytham88.bsky.social and a link to our paper:
“Grants don’t just generate knowledge or output now, they’ve become a way that we support the training of future scientists.”
dangaristo.bsky.social
NEW: We obtained the directions NSF program officers are following to review all grants for compliance with the Trump EOs and the turmoil it has created in an agency mandated to broaden STEM participation. Our story: www.nature.com/articles/d41...
Exclusive: how NSF is scouring research grants for violations of Trump’s orders
The US National Science Foundation has unfrozen grant funding, but it continues to scrutinize research projects, sowing turmoil.
www.nature.com
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
danielpgross.bsky.social
Full thread coming soon. If you want a break from current events, come see the talk at the Virtual Seminar on Innovation and Economic Growth this Wednesday 12pm ET! sites.google.com/view/v-s-inn...

Kudos to Alex and Murat for creating a new seminar 💪
VSIEG
2025 Winter Schedule: Wednesdays at 12 noon - 1pm Eastern Time. February 5th - Dan Gross (Duke) "The Therapeutic Consequences of the War: World War II and the 20th Century Expansion of Biomedicine ...
sites.google.com
danielpgross.bsky.social
Paper highlights the potential long-run impacts of integrated, cross-sectoral biomed. R&D policy focused on solving problems--complementing traditional NIH approach of funding undirected science. Echoes in the Covid era, which may have heralded a new golden age: www.nytimes.com/2023/06/23/m...
Suddenly, It Looks Like We’re in a Golden Age for Medicine (Published 2023)
We may be on the cusp of an era of astonishing innovation — the limits of which aren’t even clear yet.
www.nytimes.com
danielpgross.bsky.social
Full thread coming soon. If you want a break from current events, come see the talk at the Virtual Seminar on Innovation and Economic Growth this Wednesday 12pm ET! sites.google.com/view/v-s-inn...

Kudos to Alex and Murat for creating a new seminar 💪
VSIEG
2025 Winter Schedule: Wednesdays at 12 noon - 1pm Eastern Time. February 5th - Dan Gross (Duke) "The Therapeutic Consequences of the War: World War II and the 20th Century Expansion of Biomedicine ...
sites.google.com
danielpgross.bsky.social
🔊🔊New WP: "The Therapeutic Consequences of the War: World War II and the 20th-Century Expansion of Biomedicine"

How WW2 transformed biomed. science, triggered a golden age of drug discovery, and fueled the postwar NIH. Insights for biomed R&D today. 💉

Link: www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/fuhc8...
www.dropbox.com
Reposted by Daniel P. Gross
bitsyperlman.bsky.social
It's such a weird thing to hear the news and think "that's bad, but also I have a paper about (an aspect) of that"

Funding delays are really not great for people who work in science. Funding delays of > 30 days lead to:

- 40% increase in scientists exiting US labor force
- 20% decrease in wages