Stanimir Dobrev
@delfoo.bsky.social
Earlier I estimated that the Russian oil taxes would be 6 726 rubles per ton in January 2026. I was too generous it's 6 678 per ton and 911 rubles per barrel, almost a third of what they earned in January 2025. This is a catastrophe for Russia.
January 20, 2026 at 2:56 PM
Earlier I estimated that the Russian oil taxes would be 6 726 rubles per ton in January 2026. I was too generous it's 6 678 per ton and 911 rubles per barrel, almost a third of what they earned in January 2025. This is a catastrophe for Russia.
In Rostov region in the 100 000 people town of Novoshakhtinsk they're complaining about unsanitary conditions in the town hospital's pediatric infectious disease ward including cockroaches on the beds.
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/tarakan...
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/tarakan...
January 20, 2026 at 2:23 PM
In Rostov region in the 100 000 people town of Novoshakhtinsk they're complaining about unsanitary conditions in the town hospital's pediatric infectious disease ward including cockroaches on the beds.
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/tarakan...
bloknot-rostov.ru/news/tarakan...
This week the outages are higher than in 2025 with 264 in 2026 vs 235 in 2025. The trend continues to show that the winter of 2025-2026 is worse for Russians than 2024-2025.
January 18, 2026 at 4:55 PM
This week the outages are higher than in 2025 with 264 in 2026 vs 235 in 2025. The trend continues to show that the winter of 2025-2026 is worse for Russians than 2024-2025.
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 12th to the 18th of January.
January 18, 2026 at 4:55 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 12th to the 18th of January.
Charts of the amount of money Russia raised through fixed coupon ruble denominated debt. On top of this they had two floater bonds issues in rubles for sold value of 1,691 trillion rubles earning them 1,602 trillion rubles.
January 17, 2026 at 3:15 PM
Charts of the amount of money Russia raised through fixed coupon ruble denominated debt. On top of this they had two floater bonds issues in rubles for sold value of 1,691 trillion rubles earning them 1,602 trillion rubles.
Russia's oil and gas revenues for December were the lowest for the entire year at 447,8 billion rubles or 137,6 billion lower than expected.
January 15, 2026 at 5:16 PM
Russia's oil and gas revenues for December were the lowest for the entire year at 447,8 billion rubles or 137,6 billion lower than expected.
Russian Ural oil prices dropped to 35,6 USD per barrel while shipments by sea recovered in December to above the yearly average but in the first half of January fell by over 30%.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341570
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341570
January 15, 2026 at 6:12 AM
Russian Ural oil prices dropped to 35,6 USD per barrel while shipments by sea recovered in December to above the yearly average but in the first half of January fell by over 30%.
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341570
www.kommersant.ru/doc/8341570
This week the outages are a bit lower than in 2025 at 143 in 2026 vs 152 in 2025 but if this is the lowest numbers will get this year we're way above 2024-2025.
January 11, 2026 at 3:25 PM
This week the outages are a bit lower than in 2025 at 143 in 2026 vs 152 in 2025 but if this is the lowest numbers will get this year we're way above 2024-2025.
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 5th to the 11th of January. They are still in holiday mode so there's less outages but the biggest one this week is Belgorod where 600 000 were out of electricity, water and heating due to Ukrainian strikes.
January 11, 2026 at 3:25 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 5th to the 11th of January. They are still in holiday mode so there's less outages but the biggest one this week is Belgorod where 600 000 were out of electricity, water and heating due to Ukrainian strikes.
For those wondering the total planned regional deficits at the start of the year in 2024 were 1,5946 trillion rubles, in 2025 1,6287 trillion and in 2026 1,729,1 trillion. But over the year those move. This year I may try to track that.
January 7, 2026 at 10:44 AM
For those wondering the total planned regional deficits at the start of the year in 2024 were 1,5946 trillion rubles, in 2025 1,6287 trillion and in 2026 1,729,1 trillion. But over the year those move. This year I may try to track that.
Here are the Russian regional budgets compared in the form they were passed at the start of the year. The colored percentages are if spending grew below the official inflation in yellow, if it is over said inflation in green and if it shrank in red.
January 7, 2026 at 10:44 AM
Here are the Russian regional budgets compared in the form they were passed at the start of the year. The colored percentages are if spending grew below the official inflation in yellow, if it is over said inflation in green and if it shrank in red.
We have a large bump in outages compared to the previous year at 173 vs 75 but I think that is because Week 1 in 2025 was almost all holidays.
January 4, 2026 at 4:20 PM
We have a large bump in outages compared to the previous year at 173 vs 75 but I think that is because Week 1 in 2025 was almost all holidays.
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 29th of December to January 4th. For those who are new here around the Russian holidays authorities work overtime to minimize outages.
January 4, 2026 at 4:20 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 29th of December to January 4th. For those who are new here around the Russian holidays authorities work overtime to minimize outages.
An example of what Russian villages have to deal with when it comes to utilities.
December 29, 2025 at 3:43 PM
An example of what Russian villages have to deal with when it comes to utilities.
This week we have a decrease in the number of outages compared to last week but we are again well above the same week in 2024. 266 in 2025 vs 226 in 2024.
December 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
This week we have a decrease in the number of outages compared to last week but we are again well above the same week in 2024. 266 in 2025 vs 226 in 2024.
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 22th to the 28th of December.
December 28, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 22th to the 28th of December.
We have a first in a long time Russian industrial output is declining. After industrial output in October 2025 jumped due to one time factors to 3,1% in November 2025 there was a 0,7% decline compared to November 2024.
December 24, 2025 at 6:01 PM
We have a first in a long time Russian industrial output is declining. After industrial output in October 2025 jumped due to one time factors to 3,1% in November 2025 there was a 0,7% decline compared to November 2024.
Things look bleak for the Russian budget. As expected Russian oil taxes in December will be over 20% lower than the previously lowest month in 2025. USD value for the calculation was 80,35 rubles. Expect things to be even worse in January.
December 22, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Things look bleak for the Russian budget. As expected Russian oil taxes in December will be over 20% lower than the previously lowest month in 2025. USD value for the calculation was 80,35 rubles. Expect things to be even worse in January.
This week we again have the highest number of outages ever recorded and again well above the same week in 2024. 291 in 2025 vs 227 in 2024.
December 21, 2025 at 3:03 PM
This week we again have the highest number of outages ever recorded and again well above the same week in 2024. 291 in 2025 vs 227 in 2024.
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 15th to the 21st of December.
December 21, 2025 at 3:03 PM
Map of Utilities outages in Russia for the week 15th to the 21st of December.
This year again we have some great questions from Russians that Putin will ignore:
December 19, 2025 at 12:14 PM
This year again we have some great questions from Russians that Putin will ignore:
So people are going to keep themselves warm with electric heaters when the new round of frosts arrive at their own expense. And again this is happening in the region that mines close to half of Russia's coal.
December 16, 2025 at 3:39 PM
So people are going to keep themselves warm with electric heaters when the new round of frosts arrive at their own expense. And again this is happening in the region that mines close to half of Russia's coal.
The regional governor after firing the regional energy minister sent his own batch of coal, around 3140 tons. But it turned out it too was of low quality so it will last for just 2 days. They decided to switch to natural gas but it turns out they owe Gazprom 80 million rubles.
December 16, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The regional governor after firing the regional energy minister sent his own batch of coal, around 3140 tons. But it turned out it too was of low quality so it will last for just 2 days. They decided to switch to natural gas but it turns out they owe Gazprom 80 million rubles.
The 80 000 people town of Yurga in Russia's Kemerovo region has its heating plant out of order due to lack of coal. On paper they have 26 000 tons of coal but workers at the plant call it a combination of mud, clay and coal dust that will be spent in 2 days.
December 16, 2025 at 3:39 PM
The 80 000 people town of Yurga in Russia's Kemerovo region has its heating plant out of order due to lack of coal. On paper they have 26 000 tons of coal but workers at the plant call it a combination of mud, clay and coal dust that will be spent in 2 days.
Thanks to
x.com/skateparken
for finding this story. I would have only read it at the end of the week when I do my review. It has everything, a heating plant in a coal mining region is out of coal, fired officials and unpaid debts. Please read this thread.
x.com/skateparken
for finding this story. I would have only read it at the end of the week when I do my review. It has everything, a heating plant in a coal mining region is out of coal, fired officials and unpaid debts. Please read this thread.
December 16, 2025 at 3:39 PM
Thanks to
x.com/skateparken
for finding this story. I would have only read it at the end of the week when I do my review. It has everything, a heating plant in a coal mining region is out of coal, fired officials and unpaid debts. Please read this thread.
x.com/skateparken
for finding this story. I would have only read it at the end of the week when I do my review. It has everything, a heating plant in a coal mining region is out of coal, fired officials and unpaid debts. Please read this thread.