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David Mora

@dmoravera.bsky.social

59 followers 50 following 24 posts

Investigative reporter/researcher. Now digging into conflict and violence in Mexico for @crisisgroup.org

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Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group Latinoamérica @latam.crisisgroup.org · 29d

Hoy se cumple un año desde que las dos facciones más grandes del Cártel de Sinaloa, los Chapitos y los Mayos, iniciaron una cruenta ola de luchas internas.

@dmoravera.bsky.social, analista senior para #México, estuvo recientemente en el Estado de #Sinaloa. Esto fue lo que encontró 🧵

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Today marks a year since the Sinaloa Cartel’s two largest factions, Chapitos and Mayos, fell into a deadly wave of infighting after the former kidnapped and rendered “El Mayo” Zambada to U.S. authorities. I visited the state recently for @crisisgroup.org and this is some of what I saw.

Local policeman on watch near a crime scene in Culiacan, Sinaloa

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

The current violence may have broken deep social roots the Cartel once had in Sinaloa. “The boss who in the past covered funeral expenses, defense attorneys, who helped widows putting food on the table”, I was told, “that figure is gone.”

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Where things stand now: Los Mayos seem to have the upper hand. Chapitos lost control of key areas in Culiacán and central Sinaloa. Their alliance with CJNG? Sources told me it's weak—more like a temporary, fragile arrangement. CJNG’s forces sent to Sinaloa? Likely already dead.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Despite more counternarcotics ops, investigating actual drug production and trafficking is rare. In fact, the last 12 months saw the fewest drug manufacturing cases brought to courts in Sinaloa in the past five years.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Arrests and seizures spiked but crime prosecution remains weak. Of 1,615 detentions, ~44 were mid- and high-level operatives. The rest, foot soldiers charged with carrying guns (1,551) or drugs (193). A defense attorney recalled packed courtrooms, back-to-back hearings, and young men on line.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Sheinbaum’s has been military-first. Over 14k troops deployed. Sinaloa now has one soldier per 228 residents. The national average is 1 per 707. Convoys of military vehicles are a regular sight. They’ve helped stop open clashes and blockades—but targeted killings and mass executions haven’t ceased.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

This is a war on Sinaloa’s youth. At least 55 minors and 439 young adults (under 28) have been killed. That age group now has the highest murder rate: 74.6 per 100k. Disappearances are affecting young people the most too.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Violence has displaced at least 3k people across the state, from farmers whose crops were torched to families with young kids trying to avoid having their children entangled with either faction.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Many victims are found dismembered—missing limbs, heads. “We didn’t have this level of cruelty in the past,” a nota roja journo said. Mass killings have spiked too. Non-lethal crime is up. Carjackings, extortion, illegal gambling. Both factions—especially Chapitos—are going deep into these rackets.

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Sinaloa is going through its deadliest era in recent history. From Aug 2024 to July 2025, there were 1,763 official homicides and 1,931 people disappeared. A forensic worker told me these numbers might be an undercount. An additional 111 suspects were killed by federal forces

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · 29d

Today marks a year since the Sinaloa Cartel’s two largest factions, Chapitos and Mayos, fell into a deadly wave of infighting after the former kidnapped and rendered “El Mayo” Zambada to U.S. authorities. I visited the state recently for @crisisgroup.org and this is some of what I saw.

Local policeman on watch near a crime scene in Culiacan, Sinaloa

Reposted by David Mora

Elizabeth Dickinson @dickinsonbeth.bsky.social · Sep 8

Colombia has for years helped the US seize narcotics, capture criminals & unravel global trafficking, without the gratuitous casualties of last Tuesday’s boat strike.

Decertification would undermine the regional fight on org crime, I write for @nytimes.com

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/08/o...

Opinion | A New War Is Emerging in Colombia

www.nytimes.com

Reposted by David Mora

Elizabeth Dickinson @dickinsonbeth.bsky.social · Sep 3

Tensions between the US and Venezuela have sparked growing concern in #Colombia about the possible spillover of any destabilization in Caracas.

As a taste of what may come, a short🧵on the changing armed group dynamics along the 2,200km border 👇

www.crisisgroup.org/latin-americ...

U.S. “Anti-Drugs” Strike Stirs Fears of Venezuela Intervention | International Crisis Group

A U.S. attack in the Caribbean hit a vessel allegedly carrying drugs the Trump administration said were linked to a “narco-terrorist organisation” headed by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. In thi...

www.crisisgroup.org

Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group Latinoamérica @latam.crisisgroup.org · Aug 28

#Mexico
@crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social spoke to @biannagolodryga.bsky.social about the aftermath of drug kingpin Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada's detention, the split within the Sinaloa Cartel, and the violence that has engulfed Sinaloa after his arrest.

‘Bloodshed in Mexico is being driven by US weapons,’ says organized crime analyst | CNN

As notirious Mexican drug kingpin Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zamabada pleads guilty to drug trafficking charges in a US court, Bianna Golodryga speaks to David Mora, Senior Analyst for Mexico at the Internation...

edition.cnn.com

Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group Latinoamérica @latam.crisisgroup.org · Aug 22

"Fentanyl production and trafficking in Mexico is highly fragmented—small networks, labs inside houses in cities like Culiacán. Drone strikes there would be complicated and dangerous," @crisisgroup.org's @dmoravera.bsky.social told @newsweek.com.

US military action against Mexican cartels could backfire, experts warn

The Trump administration is reportedly planning for the possibility of military operations south of the border.

www.newsweek.com

Reposted by David Mora

Adam Isacson @adamisacson.com · Jul 16

All CBP migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border so far in fiscal year 2025. Includes Border Patrol apprehensions and port-of-entry encounters.

October-January: 31% citizens of Mexico.
February-June: 74% citizens of Mexico.

Data table: cbpdata.adamisacson.com/cbp_data_tab...

Monthly Migration at the U.S.-Mexico Border, Presented by “Nationality” Between 2025 and 2025

Nationality Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Total
Mexico 36,083 31,021 25,743 19,672 7,231 8,331 9,533 9,694 7,109 154,417
Venezuela 16,430 15,802 19,386 11,783 138 174 178 212 151 64,254
Guatemala 7,938 7,963 8,991 4,438 1,481 855 799 973 819 34,257
Cuba 8,039 8,213 8,798 6,136 111 73 90 97 65 31,622
Honduras 7,640 7,620 8,539 4,609 572 376 453 452 384 30,645
Other Countries 8,054 4,867 4,488 3,084 868 419 346 308 200 22,634
Colombia 6,337 4,709 5,885 3,210 137 103 100 80 88 20,649
El Salvador 3,121 3,106 2,971 1,713 286 198 154 208 124 11,881
Ecuador 2,697 2,662 3,178 1,921 227 105 87 91 69 11,037
Haiti 3,836 2,597 2,356 1,329 10 3 6 4 15 10,156
India 1,398 1,232 1,066 854 145 53 40 49 52 4,889
China 1,330 895 872 521 173 110 63 64 68 4,096
Brazil 992 886 966 478 81 64 16 15 12 3,510
Peru 671 767 1,077 687 42 41 28 37 23 3,373
Turkey 889 867 647 389 67 21 11 33 26 2,950
Nicaragua 560 568 642 362 35 26 48 48 44 2,333
Russia 248 336 382 231 81 18 46 59 37 1,438
Romania 42 22 14 5 1 22 8 8 12 134
Canada 10 25 18 9 16 16 14 10 6 124
Ukraine 2 21 16 14 2 8 2 3 1 69
Philippines 3 7 1 2 5 2 3 4 1 28
Myanmar (Burma) 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Total 106,320 94,186 96,036 61,447 11,710 11,018 12,025 12,449 9,306 414,497

Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group Latinoamérica @latam.crisisgroup.org · Jun 20

📖 En el escenario mundial, Trump no siempre consigue lo que quiere

En este comentario, nuestra presidenta y CEO, @comfortero.crisisgroup.org, y nuestro vicepresidente ejecutivo, Richard Atwood, analizan la política exterior de la segunda administración Trump hasta la fecha 🔽

En el escenario mundial, Trump no siempre consigue lo que quiere | International Crisis Group

La siguiente es una adaptación del informe de la presidenta y directora ejecutiva de Crisis Group, Comfort Ero, al consejo directivo de la organización, presentado a mediados de mayo de 2025. Junto al...

www.crisisgroup.org

Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group @crisisgroup.org · Jun 12

NEW Q&A | U.S. Troops to Los Angeles: A Dangerous Escalation

As residents in Los Angeles protest a crackdown on undocumented migrants, Donald Trump has sent in military personnel. @bcfinucane.bsky.social explains why this order is an ominous sign.

www.crisisgroup.org/united-state...

Reposted by David Mora

Comfort Ero @comfortero.crisisgroup.org · Jun 7

Starvation as Statecraft

www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-...

The Gaza Starvation Experiment | International Crisis Group

Israel’s new U.S.-backed aid scheme in Gaza integrates food into military strategy. Since the war began, Israel has restricted aid, easing up when famine alerts appeared, tightening as attention faded...

www.crisisgroup.org

Reposted by David Mora

Crisis Group Latinoamérica @latam.crisisgroup.org · Jun 6

Una baja participación marca la elección de jueces en #México

@dmoravera.bsky.social, experto de Crisis Group, analiza los efectos de la victoria de los candidatos de gobierno en las históricas elecciones del país 🔽

www.crisisgroup.org/es/latin-ame...

Una baja participación marca la elección de jueces en México | International Crisis Group

David Mora, experto de Crisis Group, analiza los efectos de la victoria de los candidatos de gobierno en las históricas elecciones del país

www.crisisgroup.org

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · Jun 6

Following Sunday’s elections, Mexico’s ruling party gained control over the country’s high courts. But this happened with a low 13% turnout. My quick take for @crisisgroup.org on what this implies:

Low Turnout Mars Mexico’s Bid to Elect Its Judges | International Crisis Group

Crisis Group expert David Mora on the effects of victory for pro-government candidates in the country’s landmark judicial polls

www.crisisgroup.org

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · Jun 3

We at @crisisgroup.org @latam.crisisgroup.org wrote a Q&A about the election. Its origins, the controversies around the move and the potential impacts on impunity/violence crisis. Do read it. (También en español)

A People’s Court? Weighing Mexico’s First Elections for Judges | International Crisis Group

Mexico will soon become the only country in the world to elect all its judges. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert David Mora explains the rationale behind the initiative – and its many potential pitfall...

www.crisisgroup.org

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · Jun 3

(2) A low 12% turnout revealing:

- MORENA's core mobilizing capacity

- Large indifference/major disapproval: one of every 5 votes cast for justices was either spoiled or unmarked. Could be simple mistakes (it was a complex vote) but also reports showing voters protesting through ballots

Se registran 22 millones de votos nulos y en blanco, más que votos por futuros ministros

animalpolitico.com

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · Jun 3

Mexico's judicial election results are trickling in. So far we know Supreme Court votes. Full results, including all judges, will be tallied only until next week. Noticing two things:

(1) Ruling party, MORENA, is poised to control the Supreme Court with most of the future justices with party ties.

Morena toma la Suprema Corte

Los nueve candidatos que el partido gobernante proponía han salido elegidos. El abogado mixteco Hugo Aguilar, el más votado, se perfila como presidente del alto tribunal

David Mora @dmoravera.bsky.social · May 28

También en español:

@latam.crisisgroup.org

¿Jueces del pueblo? Sopesando las primeras elecciones judiciales en México | International Crisis Group

En los próximos días México se convertirá en el único país del mundo que elige por voto popular todos sus jueces. En estas preguntas y respuestas, el experto de Crisis Group David Mora explica los mot...

www.crisisgroup.org