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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 5h

I was referring to politicians though, not to think-tankers. What does it say about the party if the think-tanks aren’t having much success in landing their ideas?

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 7h

Yeah, agree. And due to many of the personalities involved they have a tendency to double down on failed ideas rather than examine and reflect. So we just end up with Brexit 2: Brexit Harder (or variants of).

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 9h

😂

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 18h

Props for the headline

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Reposted by Dom White

Menzie Chinn @mchinn.bsky.social · 22h

Alberto Cavallo on consumer prices deviation from trend, post-Trump trade war start #EconSky

econbrowser.com/archives/202...

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

I’m sure there are, but @duncanweldon.bsky.social ‘s car wash analogy is on the money, I think.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

I don't know. Would depend on how cashflow constrained the big companies with DB plans are, I guess. But my read has generally been that hurdle rates are fairly insensitive to the cost of issuance. If that's right then the cashflow effect should surely dominate.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

censusdata.uk/e04000757-ey...

Eye, Moreton and Ashton: Ethnic group

Data from the 2021 Census in England and Wales.

censusdata.uk

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Ah yes, the DB pension fund channel! Makes a lot of sense - that first post is great.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Oh yeah? How so?

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

"We want people to be living in mixed communities, don't we?"

Robert Jenrick's home is in Eye, Herefordshire, where 165 out of 166 residents were white at the time of the last census.

Best for Britain @bestforbritain.org · 1d

Wow. Robert Jenrick doubles down by branding a black journalist's questions "ridiculous" and saying that the problem is not his comments, but "journalists like you who pop up and try to knock me down", adding that "this is the reason why terrorist attacks happen". ~AA

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

No - it's more that investment isn't really influenced by the long end. Hurdle rates don't seem to move around on the basis of the cost of capital.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

If you think QE/QT and short-term interest rate policy work through two separate mechanisms then you might be able to influence the balance of growth by, for example, raising short-term interest rates and buying Gilts. The overall support you provide to growth is unchanged but the balance shifts.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Great cover photo for that story!

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Yes indeed. I would have a lot more time for the piece if either interest rates were at the effective lower bound or inflation were not above target. But since neither of those things are true ...

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Maybe - maybe! - there's some kind of implicit model embedded in his argument that investment is more sensitive to the long end of the curve and consumption is tied to the short end. I can possibly buy the latter but not the former. And think he should at least spell out the mechanism.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

Hmmmmm. I'm certainly with Adam Tooze on the idea that central banks are ultimately (and should be) tools of the state. But the idea that QT/QE is the cause of, and solution to, all of life's problems is one of the great mistruths of our era.

www.ft.com/content/7615...

Britain needs a ‘whatever it takes’ moment

The Bank of England must acknowledge the priority of reviving investment-led growth and stop quantitative tightening

www.ft.com

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 1d

I think part of it must be that there’s an unwillingness to accept or realise that Brexit - the unifying event for the two main strands Tomas outlines - revealed large flaws in the ideology. So they’re left pushing things like leaving the ECHR, which approximate to Einstein’s definition of madness.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 2d

Thanks, Viresh!

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 2d

🎵 Spanish banks, yo te quiero infinito, Yo te quiero, oh mi corazón 🎵

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 2d

Well blow me down it turns out that Reform made campaign promises in the local elections that they either aren’t keeping or had no power to deliver.

www.ft.com/content/277c...

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 2d

When you see what’s going on in politics across much of the West, and then you read exchanges like this, it becomes hard not to conclude that a lot of people just need to get offline a lot more.

Maia @maiamindel.bsky.social · 2d

what the fuck is going on

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 4d

I don’t have a clue, to be honest. I can’t imagine they can be materially different from the ADP data, can they?

Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 4d

Maybe we’ve finally found a good use case for AI.

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Dom White @domw.bsky.social · 4d

The authors are Fed staff. I think they have an internal weekly estimate.