[2/3] One in Futures on "Constructing futures through climate modelling", that I'm co-editing with @dralaaclimate.bsky.social, @natasja.bsky.social, @a-nikas.bsky.social and Chris Groves

Submission deadline for *papers* : March 31

www.sciencedirect.com/special-issu...

Quick clarification: at roughly today’s global emissions, an extra five years of “holding steady” would add about 0.1°C of warming. So talk of a remaining 1.5°C “gap” is not a reassuring buffer… every year of plateau deepens any future overshoot and makes a return less feasible.

End +1

The text’s “national pacing” fundamentally misunderstands this:
Delay doesn’t provide options; it eliminates them. Every year without output cuts pushes the peak higher, making any return to 1.5°C less feasible.

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Either we accept 2.3°C as permanent, OR we attempt course correction so late that overshoot becomes unnecessarily deep and prolonged, if return remains feasible at all.

Both mean more irreversible climate impacts.

4/

Yet the text acknowledges a 2.3–2.5°C trajectory, risking even this overshoot-and-return scenario.

Without binding requirements for immediate fossil fuel cuts, we face two failures:

3/

My main remark: the increased risk of and from overshoot.

Our only chance for 1.5°C is now likely through overshoot; temporarily exceeding before returning. Even that comes with huge feasibility challenges.

2/

If the final text implies that "abatement" is a valid alternative to a "transition away," it isn't just offering flexibility, it is ignoring the physical reality of the transition.

#COP30 #Belem #FossilFuels #EnergyTransition

The hierarchy is clear: 75–85% of emission reductions through 2050 come from using less fossil fuel.

CCS plays a role, but it is strictly secondary, contributing a median of just 15–25%.

Technological neutrality is a political concept, not a scientific one.

2/3

We will be guided by the audience questions, given the format of the event, but I doubt such a question won’t come up

About the session: This interactive session will cut through misinformation on CCUS by using trusted voices to explain the facts. The event will include live audience polling, a CCUS ‘teach-in’ from @katharinehayhoe.com, and rapid myth-busting shaped by audience Q&A.