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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · 5d

So hard! When there is no cross-lagged effect in this data generating model, RI-CLPM estimates one, but when there *is* one effect, the ARTS model doesn't! Not sure the paper bears much on whether cross-lagged effects are rare, but def on our ability to use these models without external info.

Reposted by Drew Bailey

Rich Lucas @richlucas.bsky.social · 19d

Interested in models used to estimate lagged effects in panel data? We (@rebiweidmann.bsky.social, Hyewon Yang) have a new paper looking at patterns of stability and their implications for bias and model choice: osf.io/preprints/ps... [1/x]

OSF

osf.io

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Sep 9

I really like this paper dealing with the problem of “mischievous” responding in longitudinal panel data, by @joecimpian.bsky.social

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....

Sage Journals: Discover world-class research

Subscription and open access journals from Sage, the world's leading independent academic publisher.

journals.sagepub.com

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Aug 25

Dag makhani: Causal inference and Indian cuisine

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Aug 25

Collider effect in the real world!

Sanjay Srivastava @sanjaysrivastava.com · Aug 23

Protip: If you go to an Indian restaurant in America, and it's all aloo gobi this and tikka masala that, but there's a dish or two that you don't recognize - get it. There's a very good chance it's a regional specialty from where the owners grew up and it will be delicious

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Aug 19

Like, the effect of dropping a bouncing ball on the velocity of the ball over time is a weird oscillating function?

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Aug 18

About 2/3 of the posts on this platform linking to the recent NYT article on null findings from Baby’s First Years have this reaction. You can search the headline and verify yourself!

www.nytimes.com/2025/07/28/u...

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Aug 9

I used Paige’s first book in a class students with a wide range of previous exposure to and attitudes about behavior genetics, and they all seem to find it very interesting. Will probably try this one too!

Kathryn Paige Harden @kph3k.bsky.social · Aug 3

I wrote another book & I'm very excited (& nervous) for it to be released into the world: www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/714593...

Original Sin by Kathryn Paige Harden: 9780593447628 | PenguinRandomHouse.com: Books

An intellectually daring and deeply intimate exploration of how genetics complicates our ideas about blame, punishment and moral responsibility—from acclaimed psychologist and author of The Genetic....

www.penguinrandomhouse.com

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jul 29

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jul 25

Random Intercepts and Slopes in Longitudinal Models: When Are They "Good" and "Bad" Controls?

or

Illusory Traits 2: Revenge of the Slopes

Led by Siling Guo, with Nicolas Hübner, Steffen Zitzmann, Martin Hecht, and Kou Murayama.

Comments welcome!

osf.io/preprints/ps...

OSF

osf.io

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Reposted by Drew Bailey

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · Jun 25

New blog post! Let's say you've measured two variables repeatedly and want to investigate how one affects the other over time. Here are some recommendations for how to do that well.

www.the100.ci/2025/06/25/r...

Reviewer notes: So you’re interested in “lagged effects.”

In some fields, researchers who end up with time series of two variables of interest (X and Y) like to analyze (reciprocal) lagged effects between them. Does X affect Y at a later point in time, and d...

www.the100.ci

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jun 23

Although field-specific authorship norms probably mostly just reflect the values of people in the field, I also think they can affect those values too. This seems like a good example! (I have some guesses about unintended consequences of tiny authorship teams too, btw.)

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Reposted by Drew Bailey

Kevin M. King @kevinmking.bsky.social · Jun 20

6) LCGAs never replicate across datasets or in the same dataset. They usually just produce the salsa pattern (Hi/med/low) or the cats cradle (Hi/low/increasing/decreasing).

This has misled entire fields (see all of George Bonnano's work on resilience, for example).

psycnet.apa.org/fulltext/201...

APA PsycNet

psycnet.apa.org

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Reposted by Drew Bailey

Ruben C. Arslan @ruben.the100.ci · Jun 13

Our paper "A fragmented field" has just been accepted at AMPPS. We find it's not just you, psychology is really getting more confusing (construct and measure fragmentation is rising).
We updated the preprint with the (substantial) revision, please check it out.
osf.io/preprints/ps...

Treemap showing measurement fragmentation across subfields in psychology. Hill-Shannon Diversity 𝐷=1626.05

How often measures in the APA PsycTESTS database are (re)used according to the APA PsycInfo database: rarely, the majority are never reused.

Our fragmentation index (Hill-Shannon diversity) over time across subdisciplines shows fragmentation rising.

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jun 11

But I really hope we get 10 more years of strong studies now on the effects of large increases in access on outcomes for "always takers" and especially for elite students. There are lots of good reasons to expect these effects should differ. (2/2)

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jun 11

I have seen lots of higher ed talks and papers in the last 10 years convincingly demonstrating that just making some cutoff (getting into a more selective college or major, not taking remedial classes) helps the marginal student. Great to see an emerging consensus. (1/2)

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · Jun 11

For every cause, x, there is some group of people (often disproportionately people who study x) who think the effects of x are way bigger than they are. Therefore, I think we are doomed to read (or worse, make) "Yeah, but the effect of x is small" takes forever.

Reposted by Drew Bailey

Paul Bogdan @pbogdan.bsky.social · Apr 9

I investigated how often papers' significant (p < .05) results are fragile (.01 ≤ p < .05) p-values. An excess of such p-values suggests low odds of replicability.

From 2004-2024, the rates of fragile p-values have gone down precipitously across every psychology discipline (!)

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · May 15

Hope to see at least one of these in each APS policy brief from now on!

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Reposted by Drew Bailey

CEC Division for Research (CEC-DR) @cec-dr.bsky.social · May 12

IN MEMORY OF LYNN FUCHS

The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absence leaves a profound void—not only in our scholarly community, but in the hearts of all who had the privilege of knowing her.

[ click reading below ]

In Memory of Lynn Fuchs

Email from CEC Division for Research May 12, 2025 In Memory of Lynn Fuchs The field of special education lost a visionary and beloved leader with the passing of Lynn Fuchs on May 7, 2025. Her absenc

conta.cc

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · May 12

Really like it!

Reposted by Drew Bailey

Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · May 11

Thanks to everybody who chimed in!

I arrived at the conclusion that (1) there's a lot of interesting stuff about interactions and (2) the figure I was looking for does not exist.

So, I made it myself! Here's a simple illustration of how to control for confounding in interactions:>

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · May 8

(Not saying the public is right necessarily; you can get programs that pass a cost-benefit test with much smaller effects on test scores than laypeople want. But it is a problem for policymakers that the public wants them policy to deliver unrealistically sized effects.)

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · May 8

If you ask people what kinds of effects they’d need to decide to implement something new, they’re much bigger than realistically sized effects in ed policy. We’ve decided collectively to pretend this isn’t a problem and then get surprised at the backlash when it comes.

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Drew Bailey @drewhalbailey.bsky.social · May 3

Is there a name for the fallacy that, because things are different from each other, one cannot compare them? (If not, I propose the “apples and oranges fallacy”)

@stefanschubert.bsky.social

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