Leigh Drogen
@drogen.bsky.social
Founder and CIO at Starkiller Capital a quant driven digital assets investment firm, Founder at Estimize, even I don’t agree today with everything I’ve ever tweeted
www.starkiller.capital
www.starkiller.capital
If you’re really concerned about the economic consequences of below replacement birth levels, which the techno-libertarians seem to be, then you should fight really hard for all of the above immigration increases, skilled, unskilled, whatever
The CBO forecast sharply lower population growth in the U.S. over the next three decades than it projected one year ago, reflecting lower rates of immigration and fertility.
Deaths are expected to exceed births in 2033, seven years earlier than projected a year ago
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
Deaths are expected to exceed births in 2033, seven years earlier than projected a year ago
www.wsj.com/us-news/u-s-...
January 15, 2025 at 1:08 AM
If you’re really concerned about the economic consequences of below replacement birth levels, which the techno-libertarians seem to be, then you should fight really hard for all of the above immigration increases, skilled, unskilled, whatever
The future is simply a policy choice, we just need politicians willing to be brave for the right ones
Congestion Relief Zone tolling has been in effect for a week.
Here's what the data says so far ⬇️
Here's what the data says so far ⬇️
January 14, 2025 at 3:55 AM
The future is simply a policy choice, we just need politicians willing to be brave for the right ones
The market might like this policy least because it leaves everyone in constant fear they ratchet it up
Exclusive: Members of Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid a spike in inflation
Trump Team Studies Gradual Tariff Hikes Under Emergency Powers
Members of President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming economic team are discussing slowly ramping up tariffs month by month, a gradual approach aimed at boosting negotiating leverage while helping avoid ...
www.bloomberg.com
January 13, 2025 at 10:54 PM
The market might like this policy least because it leaves everyone in constant fear they ratchet it up
Reposted by Leigh Drogen
It won’t happen this way because the chaos and confusion at the point, but if Trump just announced his final tariff policies on day one, regardless of what they were, markets would probably digest it and we’d move on by March.
January 13, 2025 at 8:08 PM
It won’t happen this way because the chaos and confusion at the point, but if Trump just announced his final tariff policies on day one, regardless of what they were, markets would probably digest it and we’d move on by March.
lol where are they gonna find 500,000 people to build homes
Los Angeles Fires - Reconstruction
How quickly can we get to replacing all the property destroyed by fire? Historical construction data shows it takes 4000 to 5000 construction jobs for 1 year to put-in-place $1 billion worth of construction.
edzarenski.com/2025/01/11/l...
How quickly can we get to replacing all the property destroyed by fire? Historical construction data shows it takes 4000 to 5000 construction jobs for 1 year to put-in-place $1 billion worth of construction.
edzarenski.com/2025/01/11/l...
January 13, 2025 at 2:25 PM
lol where are they gonna find 500,000 people to build homes
Apple intelligence is such an enormous failure I can’t even ask it to find and bring up an email with a specific word in it from a specific person because that email lives in Gmail not apple’s native email app
January 12, 2025 at 5:19 PM
Apple intelligence is such an enormous failure I can’t even ask it to find and bring up an email with a specific word in it from a specific person because that email lives in Gmail not apple’s native email app
While a lot of sentiment indicators are broken, it’s impossible to look at this chart objectively and say there’s equal political stupidity taking place
The new admin’s stated policies are explicitly inflationary, even the Fed believes so
Dems basically had it right here the entire way
The new admin’s stated policies are explicitly inflationary, even the Fed believes so
Dems basically had it right here the entire way
January 11, 2025 at 4:18 PM
While a lot of sentiment indicators are broken, it’s impossible to look at this chart objectively and say there’s equal political stupidity taking place
The new admin’s stated policies are explicitly inflationary, even the Fed believes so
Dems basically had it right here the entire way
The new admin’s stated policies are explicitly inflationary, even the Fed believes so
Dems basically had it right here the entire way
Reposted by Leigh Drogen
my issue to the "Dems should have treated Big Tech differently" debate is -- what did Dems accomplish in the Biden administration in regulating tech?
it just seems like there was a ton of loud noises and no one actually reined anyone in, pretty much the worst of both worlds
it just seems like there was a ton of loud noises and no one actually reined anyone in, pretty much the worst of both worlds
January 7, 2025 at 11:59 PM
my issue to the "Dems should have treated Big Tech differently" debate is -- what did Dems accomplish in the Biden administration in regulating tech?
it just seems like there was a ton of loud noises and no one actually reined anyone in, pretty much the worst of both worlds
it just seems like there was a ton of loud noises and no one actually reined anyone in, pretty much the worst of both worlds
Who conceived of this anti tech anti innovation stance?
They saw concentrated power and though “why don’t we go toe to toe with this”
It wasn’t just philosophically dumb it was strategically even dumber
They saw concentrated power and though “why don’t we go toe to toe with this”
It wasn’t just philosophically dumb it was strategically even dumber
What tangible wins did Dems get for their anti-tech crusade to offset pissing off big tech and radicalizing CEO’s/VC’s into supporting Trump?
January 7, 2025 at 9:57 PM
Who conceived of this anti tech anti innovation stance?
They saw concentrated power and though “why don’t we go toe to toe with this”
It wasn’t just philosophically dumb it was strategically even dumber
They saw concentrated power and though “why don’t we go toe to toe with this”
It wasn’t just philosophically dumb it was strategically even dumber
Why is productivity growth exploding now ask the people who think AI is mostly nonsense
Since 1950, the 10 strongest years for the U.S. economy have all been accompanied by higher-than-average productivity growth.
Good news: Productivity has increased 2.5% annually over the past four quarters - NEW @calliecox.bsky.social !!!
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2025-o...
Good news: Productivity has increased 2.5% annually over the past four quarters - NEW @calliecox.bsky.social !!!
www.optimisticallie.com/p/the-2025-o...
January 6, 2025 at 5:30 PM
Why is productivity growth exploding now ask the people who think AI is mostly nonsense
lol at the fact the NYT chooses to publish this NOW and not many months ago
News Analysis: President-elect Trump says he is about to take over a nation ravaged by crisis, a desolate hellscape of crime, chaos and economic hardship. But by many metrics, the country is in better shape than it has been for a new president's inauguration in over twenty years. nyti.ms/407cWbk
Trump Sees the U.S. as a ‘Disaster.’ The Numbers Tell a Different Story.
President Biden is bequeathing his successor a nation that by many measures is in good shape, even if voters remain unconvinced.
nyti.ms
January 5, 2025 at 4:54 PM
lol at the fact the NYT chooses to publish this NOW and not many months ago
Blinken and Biden get a B for the Middle East, a C- for Ukraine (only because the MAGA faction gets an F), a B+ for China, and an overall B- for allowing world events to be dictated to us instead of having the balls to shape the future vs being scared of escalation theory
At the end of a tenure marked by war and division, Secretary of State Antony Blinken defends his legacy on Gaza and Ukraine and says he’s made America stronger. Read or listen to The Interview. nyti.ms/4h11Ag1
January 5, 2025 at 3:42 AM
Blinken and Biden get a B for the Middle East, a C- for Ukraine (only because the MAGA faction gets an F), a B+ for China, and an overall B- for allowing world events to be dictated to us instead of having the balls to shape the future vs being scared of escalation theory
Did a hostile takeover of my HOA about 18 months ago after seeing it was a complete shit show
Some very simple administrative efficiency and we lowered dues by 28%
The world is full of lazy bullshit and people taking advantage of that laziness
Some very simple administrative efficiency and we lowered dues by 28%
The world is full of lazy bullshit and people taking advantage of that laziness
January 5, 2025 at 3:14 AM
Did a hostile takeover of my HOA about 18 months ago after seeing it was a complete shit show
Some very simple administrative efficiency and we lowered dues by 28%
The world is full of lazy bullshit and people taking advantage of that laziness
Some very simple administrative efficiency and we lowered dues by 28%
The world is full of lazy bullshit and people taking advantage of that laziness
Boy do I hope this is Nikileaks channeling JPow telling the market they went too far with the hawkish shot over Trump’s bow
A year ago, the argument that the Fed’s pivot was going to lead inflation progress to stall (or reverse) was grounded in a view that housing would be a powerful tailwind. The argument now seems to have ignored housing and shifted to some mix of sentiment/tight spreads/equities.
January 4, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Boy do I hope this is Nikileaks channeling JPow telling the market they went too far with the hawkish shot over Trump’s bow
Absolutely not, he’s basically Mika but younger, he’s a milk drinker, you’re never winning the cup with him as your 1C
January 2, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Absolutely not, he’s basically Mika but younger, he’s a milk drinker, you’re never winning the cup with him as your 1C
Reality is the Rangers will likely attain the worst outcome possible, they win a bunch of games after the trade deadline where they ship away the entitled veterans and miss playoffs by a few points getting a shitty draft pick that won’t even help them this cycle
January 2, 2025 at 11:33 PM
Reality is the Rangers will likely attain the worst outcome possible, they win a bunch of games after the trade deadline where they ship away the entitled veterans and miss playoffs by a few points getting a shitty draft pick that won’t even help them this cycle
I feel like people have (rationally) given up on trying to hold the NYT and others responsible for shit like “falsely suggested” because they know they have no agency to change behavior in the same way the NYT gave up a long time ago trying to hold Trump accountable for anything for the same reason
President-elect Trump falsely suggested on social media that the man who drove a pickup truck into a crowd in New Orleans was an immigrant. Officials identified the suspect in the deadly attack as a U.S.-born citizen and Army veteran.
Trump Falsely Suggested New Orleans Suspect Was an Immigrant
The president-elect said on social media that he was right about fearing criminals on the other side of the border. Officials later identified the suspect as a U.S.-born citizen and Army veteran.
www.nytimes.com
January 2, 2025 at 5:28 AM
I feel like people have (rationally) given up on trying to hold the NYT and others responsible for shit like “falsely suggested” because they know they have no agency to change behavior in the same way the NYT gave up a long time ago trying to hold Trump accountable for anything for the same reason
There are only really two plausible explanations
Either
The team really has quit in protest of Drury (less likely)
The D core can’t make a breakout pass and there’s a negative feedback loop from that which put them in an unrecoverable flat spin (more likely)
Either
The team really has quit in protest of Drury (less likely)
The D core can’t make a breakout pass and there’s a negative feedback loop from that which put them in an unrecoverable flat spin (more likely)
Still can't quite get over that 3 key #NYR players (Kreider, Zibanejad, Trocheck) are below replacement-level YOY while even those positive (Fox, Panarin, Miller) are seeing results ~50-60% less than last year.
It simply doesn't matter what trades are made when this many players are struggling.
It simply doesn't matter what trades are made when this many players are struggling.
December 30, 2024 at 5:09 PM
There are only really two plausible explanations
Either
The team really has quit in protest of Drury (less likely)
The D core can’t make a breakout pass and there’s a negative feedback loop from that which put them in an unrecoverable flat spin (more likely)
Either
The team really has quit in protest of Drury (less likely)
The D core can’t make a breakout pass and there’s a negative feedback loop from that which put them in an unrecoverable flat spin (more likely)
Reposted by Leigh Drogen
been in the replies the last few days, but keeping these two over the summer when they had a chance to retool (aka replace these guys with cheap options and help depth both out back & up front), was indeed a choice that was made.
December 30, 2024 at 3:37 PM
been in the replies the last few days, but keeping these two over the summer when they had a chance to retool (aka replace these guys with cheap options and help depth both out back & up front), was indeed a choice that was made.
This is all true, but also, online dating apps do suck, they are intentionally inefficient markets that prey on men by intentionally being inefficient pieces of shit
The issue isn’t that online dating apps suck, it’s that all of the loud voices giving advice to angry young men are giving advice that doesn’t help them, and almost certainly actively hurts them, but keeps them listening to the people giving bad advice. It’s a digital media problem.
has anyone attempted deradicalizing young men by producing a dating app that doesn't suck
December 29, 2024 at 6:15 AM
This is all true, but also, online dating apps do suck, they are intentionally inefficient markets that prey on men by intentionally being inefficient pieces of shit
At this point the only real question is how many weeks/months/years do you wait for this man to find his game, and what happens if he never does, what if he’s just done, wouldn’t be the first 30+ year old center to fall off a cliff
What if he’s still this bad next year?
What if he’s still this bad next year?
Me, watching this game, attempting to figure out what happened to the New York Rangers. #NYR
December 29, 2024 at 3:35 AM
At this point the only real question is how many weeks/months/years do you wait for this man to find his game, and what happens if he never does, what if he’s just done, wouldn’t be the first 30+ year old center to fall off a cliff
What if he’s still this bad next year?
What if he’s still this bad next year?
So the Fed has become explicitly political in its policy/communication, the market is now only pricing in 1.3 cuts next year, and the bond market can’t catch a bid because the Fed keeps scaring it
If Trump doesn’t deport 10m people and enact onerous tariffs lots of people are off sides here
If Trump doesn’t deport 10m people and enact onerous tariffs lots of people are off sides here
What does a central bank that had thought it might be able to achieve a soft landing do if it is confronted with new potential negative supply shocks? We may be about to find out www.wsj.com/economy/cent...
The Fed Is Trying—Again—to Size Up Trump
Heading into a new year with a new administration, policymakers project fewer cuts and somewhat more stubborn inflation.
www.wsj.com
December 27, 2024 at 4:41 PM
So the Fed has become explicitly political in its policy/communication, the market is now only pricing in 1.3 cuts next year, and the bond market can’t catch a bid because the Fed keeps scaring it
If Trump doesn’t deport 10m people and enact onerous tariffs lots of people are off sides here
If Trump doesn’t deport 10m people and enact onerous tariffs lots of people are off sides here
The war in Gaza has the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio in modern urban warfare, this is a fact
Not only is it not one of the deadliest by absolute numbers, it was the MOST humane by execution
But hey, that doesn’t make a good narrative for NYT writers who want to impact policy
Not only is it not one of the deadliest by absolute numbers, it was the MOST humane by execution
But hey, that doesn’t make a good narrative for NYT writers who want to impact policy
Israel severely weakened safeguards meant to protect civilians to make it easier to strike Gaza in the weeks after Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack, unleashing one of the deadliest bombing campaigns in modern warfare, a New York Times investigation found. nyti.ms/49XyoV2
December 27, 2024 at 2:22 AM
The war in Gaza has the lowest civilian to combatant casualty ratio in modern urban warfare, this is a fact
Not only is it not one of the deadliest by absolute numbers, it was the MOST humane by execution
But hey, that doesn’t make a good narrative for NYT writers who want to impact policy
Not only is it not one of the deadliest by absolute numbers, it was the MOST humane by execution
But hey, that doesn’t make a good narrative for NYT writers who want to impact policy
Do republicans have a functioning majority in the house???
Representative Kay Granger of Texas, who made history when she became the first Republican woman to lead the powerful House Appropriations Committee, has been largely absent from Capitol Hill since the summer and has been living in a retirement home — an arrangement her office had not disclosed.
House Member in Senior Living Facility Draws Fresh Scrutiny to Aging Congress
Representative Kay Granger, Republican of Texas, has been largely absent from Capitol Hill since the summer and has moved into a retirement home.
www.nytimes.com
December 26, 2024 at 7:26 PM
Do republicans have a functioning majority in the house???
Don’t forget to make offerings this holiday season to the one true god, ruler of the universe, his noodliness the Flying Spaghetti Monster, may you and your family be touched by his noodly appendages
December 25, 2024 at 7:15 PM
Don’t forget to make offerings this holiday season to the one true god, ruler of the universe, his noodliness the Flying Spaghetti Monster, may you and your family be touched by his noodly appendages